Schedine Champions League oggi: mercoledì 5 novembre 2014

Ecco le schedine di Champions League di oggi, 5 novembre 2014, ed i pronostici di Champions League di mercoledì sera (4^ giornata dei gironi), con quote, statistiche, precedenti, giocatori assenti (infortunati e squalificati) e consigli per scommettere sull'Europa che conta. Leggi le nostre analisi con pronostici di Champions motivati e vincenti e tante schedine di Champions per tutti i gusti e tutte le tasche.

SCHEDINE CHAMPIONS LEAGUE: mercoledì 5 novembre 2014 (4° turno dei gironi)
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Probabili formazioni Bayern Monaco-Roma: pronostico 5 novembre 2014

Probabili formazioni Bayern Monaco-Roma, pronostico, convocati e diretta TV - Scopri gli 8 giocatori assenti nei convocati di Garcia per Bayern Monaco-Roma, in TV su Canale 5 (in esclusiva) alle ore 21:45 di mercoledì 5 novembre dalla Fussball Arena di Monaco di Baviera. Leggi le ultime dai campi sulle probabili formazioni di Bayern-Roma, con pronostico, precedenti, quote, consigli per scommettere e schedine di Champions League per la 4^ giornata del girone E. Arbitro: Cuneyt Cakir (turco).

Pronostico e Probabili Formazioni BAYERN MONACO-ROMA: mercoledì 5 novembre 2014
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Pronostici Champions League 5 novembre 2014

Ecco TUTTI i pronostici di Champions League di mercoledì 5 novembre 2014 con quote, precedenti, consigli per scommettere, probabili formazioni ed ultime dai campi di Champions League con le news sui giocatori assenti (infortunati e squalificati nella 4^ giornata dei gironi). Leggi il pronostico di Manchester City-CSKA Mosca, il pronostico di PSG-APOEL, il pronostico di Ajax-Barcellona, il pronostico di Maribor-Chelsea, il pronostico di Sportng Lisbona-Schalke, il pronostico di Shakhtar Donetsk-BATE Borisov ed il pronostico di Athletic Bilbao-Porto, senza dimenticare il pronostico di Bayern Monaco-Roma e le schedine di Champions League di mercoledì 5 novembre 2014.

PRONOSTICI CHAMPIONS LEAGUE (4° turno): mercoledì 5 novembre 2014
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Schedine Champions League oggi: martedì 4 novembre 2014

Ecco le schedine di Champions League di oggi (4 novembre 2014) ed i pronostici di Champions di martedì. Scopri quote, precedenti, statistiche, ultime dai campi e probabili formazioni di Champions League con tutti i giocatori assenti (infortunati e squalificati). Leggi i nostri consigli per scommettere e le schedine di martedì sera.

PRONOSTICI E SCHEDINE CHAMPIONS LEAGUE (4^ giornata): martedì 4 novembre 2014
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Probabili formazioni Juventus-Olympiacos: pronostico 4 novembre 2014

Probabili formazioni Juventus-Olympiacos, pronostico, convocati e diretta TV - Scopri i tanti giocatori assenti e le ultime dai campi su Juventus-Olympiakos, in TV su Sky Calcio 1 e Sky Sport Plus alle ore 20:45 di martedì 4 novembre 2014 dallo Juventus Stadium di Torino. Leggi i nostri consigli per scommettere nel pronostico di Juventus-Olympiacos, con quote, precedenti e schedine di Champions League di mercoledì sera. Arbitro: Martin Atkinson (inglese).

Pronostico e Probabili Formazioni JUVENTUS - OLYMPIACOS: martedì 4 novembre 2014
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Pronostico Bayern Monaco-Roma 5 novembre 2014

Ecco il pronostico di Bayern Monaco-Roma di mercoledì 5 novembre 2014 con quote, precedenti e consigli per scommettere. Scopri le probabili formazioni di Bayern Monaco-Roma con le ultime dai campi sui giocatori assenti (infortunati e squalificati) nelle schedine di Champions League di mercoledì sera (4^ giornata dei gironi).

PRONOSTICO BAYERN - ROMA (Champions League): mercoledì 5 novembre 2014 (Gruppo E)
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Pronostici Champions League 4 novembre 2014

Ecco TUTTI i pronostici di Champions League di martedì 4 novembre 2014, con quote, precedenti e consigli per scommettere. Scopri le probabili formazioni di Champions e le ultime dai campi sui giocatori assenti (infortunati e squalificati nella 4^ giornata del girone), con le schedine di Champions per martedì sera. Leggi il pronostico di Malmo-Atletico Madrid, il pronostico di Real Madrid-Liverpool, il pronostico di Basilea-Ludogorets, il pronostico di Zenit San Pietroburgo-Bayer Leverkusen, il pronostico di Benfica-Monaco, il pronostico di Borussia Dortmund-Galatasaray ed il pronostico di Arsenal-Anderlecht, senza dimenticare il pronostico di Juventus-Olympiacos!

PRONOSTICI CHAMPIONS LEAGUE: martedì 4 novembre 2014 (4^ giornata dei gironi)
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Pronostico Juventus-Olympiacos 4 novembre 2014

Ecco il pronostico di Juventus-Olympiacos di martedì 4 novembre 2014 con quote e statistiche. Scopri le probabili formazioni di Juventus-Olympiacos con precedenti ed ultime dai campi sui giocatori assenti (infortunati e squalificati). Leggi i nostri consigli per scommettere sulla Champions League con le schedine di martedì.

PRONOSTICO JUVENTUS - OLYMPIAKOS: martedì 4 novembre 2014 (Champions League)
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UEFA Prize Money - Rhapsody In Blue

The Europa League has long been regarded by leading clubs as a poor relation to the far more lucrative Champions League, but Chelsea’s prodigious efforts after parachuting in to the junior competition might just give pause for thought, as they will end up earning more from Europe this season than any other English club.

Although they earned €5 million less than Manchester United from the Champions League after exiting at the group stage, they will receive at least €6.5 million from the Europa League, even if they lose the final. If they repeat last season’s victory in the Champions League, the sum earned will rise to around €9 million.

This means that Chelsea will receive at least €40.9 million (Champions League €34.4 million + Europa League €6.5 million), rising to as much as €43.4 million if they win the Europa League. Of course, the bad news is that this will still be significantly less than last season’s €59.9 million for the Champions League triumph - though the blow will be somewhat softened by money from the UEFA Super Cup (€2.2 million) and the FIFA Club World Cup ($4 million).

The other three English Champions League qualifiers should still be smiling though, as they have all actually earned more money this season, thanks to a substantial increase in the available prize money (around 22%).

Manchester United’s income rose €4.1 million to €39.3 million, though the difference falls to €2.9 million once the €1.2 million they received from dropping down to the Europa League in 2011/12 is taken into consideration. Similarly, Manchester City’s income increased by €5.8 million to €32.4 million, reducing to €4.6 million after deducting last season’s €1.2 million from the Europa League. Finally, Arsenal will receive €34.5 million, which is €6.2 million higher than the previous season.

As an aide-mémoire, the money for UEFA’s two tournament is divided into two parts: (a) prize money based on participation and results; (b) TV (market) pool.

Prize Money – Champions League

Each of the 32 teams that qualify for the Champions League group stages is guaranteed a participation base fee of €8.6 million even if it loses every single game. There is also a performance bonus of €1 million for each victory in the group stage plus €500,000 for a draw. So if a team manages to win all six of its group matches, it will get €6 million on top of the base fee.

If a team qualifies for the first knock-out round (the last 16), it is awarded a further €3.5 million, while there are additional performance prizes for each further stage reached: quarter-final €3.9 million, semi-final €4.9 million, final €6.5 million and winners €10.5 million. So if you go all the way and win the trophy, you would earn a total of €37.4 million (not counting the TV pool share), which is up from €31.5 million in 2011/12.

Prize Money – Europe League

The principle is the same in the Europa League, though the sums involved are much smaller. Each of the 48 clubs involved in the group stages receives a participation base fee of €1.3 million. In addition, there is €200,000 for each win and €100,000 for each draw in the group stage. A new addition this season, presumably to encourage clubs to give their all, is qualification bonuses for teams that progress to the round of 32: group winners earn €400,000 and runners-up €200,000.

Turning to the knock-out stages, clubs competing in the round of 32 will receive €200,000 each, clubs in the last 16 €350,000, the quarter-finalists €450,000 and the semi-finalists €1 million. The Europa League winners will collect €5 million and the runners-up €2.5 million.

That’s now a pretty good incentive, compared to the €3 million paid to Atlético Madrid, the 2011/12 winners. In fact, the winning club could now receive a maximum of €9.9 million, 54% up from last season’s €6.4 million.

Although the Europa League’s 2012/13 prize money is higher as a proportion of the Champions League (26% v 20%), the gap between the two is actually growing (€27.5 million v €25.1 million).

Nevertheless, it can still be a very useful boost to clubs like Chelsea that drop down from the Champions League, especially if they reach the final, which is worth either €6.5 million or €9 million (assuming €2 million for the Europea League TV pool, based on previous years). It does require Stakhanovite efforts on behalf of the playing squad, which may jeopardise their chances in their domestic league, but, as the figures above indicate, it can make a big difference.

TV Pool

In addition to these fixed sums, the clubs receive a share of the television money from the TV (market) pool, which is allocated according to a number of variables. First, the total amount available in the pool depends on the size/value of a country’s TV market, so the amount allocated to teams in England is more than that given to, say, Spain, as English television generates more revenue. Clubs can also potentially do better if fewer representatives from their country reach the group stage, as the available money is divided between fewer clubs.

In the case of the English clubs in the Champions League, the allocation works as follows:

(a) Half depends on the position that the club finished in the previous season’s Premier League with the team finishing first receiving 40%, the team finishing second 30%, third 20% and fourth 10%.

(b) Half depends on the progress in the current season’s Champions League, which is based on the number of games played, starting from the group stages.

However, the 2012/13 allocation for the element based on the previous season’s Premier League finish was changed following Chelsea’s Champions League win as follows: Manchester City (1st) 30%, Manchester United (2nd) 25%, Arsenal (3rd) 15%, Chelsea (5th) 30%. So, the first three clubs lost a portion of their TV pool following Chelsea’s remarkable success.

TV Pool – Allocation

The TV pool allocation methodology can produce some results which seem strange at first glance, e.g. Manchester United and Arsenal were both eliminated at the last 16 stage, but United received €4.3 million more than Arsenal (€23.2 million v €18.9 million). 

This is entirely due to United finishing one place ahead of Arsenal in the 2011/12 Premier League, so receiving 25% of that half of the TV pool (€10.8 million), compared to Arsenal’s 15% (€6.5 million). Of course, both clubs received exactly the same (€12.4 million) for this season’s Champions League progress, which incidentally was more than the €9.3 million for Chelsea and Manchester City, who both went out at the group stage.

Thus, from a purely financial perspective, it is important not just to qualify for the Champions League, but also to qualify in as high a position as possible. Fourth place may be considered a trophy these days, but second or third place are worth even more to the bank balance.

A club’s finances are also boosted if the club finishing fourth fails to win the qualifier for the group stage, as this would mean that the TV pool would then be split between only three teams instead of four. In the same way, it is better financially if the other English clubs do not progress as far as your team.

Note that these calculations assume that the total English TV pool is the same as last season, based on the Sky/ITV deal being more or less the same size, though there are some indications that it might be slightly lower.

However the money is split, there is no doubt that all the English clubs playing in the Champions League have a considerable monetary advantage over the rest of the Premier League, as can be seen by the above analysis of Media revenue from last season – and that was before the 2012/13 increases. As The Clash once sang, it is indeed a “Safe European Home”, at least for a privileged few.

Champions League Revenue - The Final Countdown

Chelsea’s remarkable triumph over Barcelona in last night’s Champions League semi-final was a surprise, but no more than their old fashioned, backs to the wall display deserved. They might not have played the prettiest football, but the result made it all worthwhile in the end, as they could book their tickets to Munich for a sumptuous final against either Real Madrid or Bayern Munich. You can’t put a price on nights like that.

Well, actually you can, as we are now in a position to estimate the impact on Chelsea’s Champions League revenue compared to last season. In fact, we can now work out the increases (or decreases) in revenue for all the English clubs in Europe with a reasonable degree of accuracy.

First, we need to understand how revenue is distributed among the clubs competing in the Champions League. UEFA negotiate various TV and sponsorship deals that contribute to a pot of around €1.1 billion to be distributed to teams competing in the Champions League and Europa League – after reserving around a fifth to cover their own costs and make “solidarity” payments to associations, leagues and clubs.

The pot made available for the clubs is divided into two parts: (a) prize money based on participation and results; (b) TV (market) pool.

Prize Money – Champions League

The above table lists the participation fees and prize money payable to the 32 teams that qualify for the Champions League group stages. Right off the bat, each team is awarded €3.9 million for participation plus another €550,000 per match played in the group phase, regardless of the result. Assuming that a club fulfills its six group fixtures (a fairly safe assumption), that’s worth €3.3 million. This means that each team is guaranteed €7.2 million for qualifying for the group stage, even if it loses every single game.

There is also a performance bonus of €800,000 for each victory in the group stage plus €400,000 for a draw. So if a team really puts its pedal to the metal and manages to win all six of their group matches, it will get €4.8 million. If a team qualifies for the first knock-out round (the last 16), they are awarded a further €3 million.

There are additional performance prizes for each further stage reached: quarter-final €3.3 million, semi-final €4.2 million, final €5.6 million and winners €9 million. So if you go all the way and win the damn thing, you would earn a total of €31.5 million (not counting the TV pool share), which is serious money in anybody’s language.

"UEFA's Michel Platini - Hammer Time"

Prize Money – Europe League

The principle is the same in the Europa League, though the sums involved are considerably smaller. Each of the 48 clubs involved in the group stages receives a participation bonus of €640,000 plus €60,000 for each match played in the group, giving a total of €1 million. In addition, there is €140,000 for each win and €70,000 for each draw in the group stage.

Turning to the knock-out stages, clubs competing in the round of 32 will receive €200,000 each, clubs in the last 16 €300,000, the quarter-finalists €400,000 and the semi-finalists €700,000. The Europa League winners will collect €3 million and the runners-up €2 million. The winning club could therefore receive a maximum of €6.4 million (around 20% of the Champions League).

TV Pool

In addition to these fixed sums, the clubs receive a share of the television money from the TV (market) pool, which is allocated according to a number of variables. First, the total amount available in the pool depends on the size/value of a country’s TV market, so the amount allocated to teams in England is more than that given to, say, Spain, as English television generates more revenue.

Clubs can also potentially do better if fewer representatives from their country reach the group stage, as the available money is divided between fewer clubs. This tends to benefit clubs from smaller countries, e.g. in 2010/11 Panathinaikos received €14.4 million from the TV pool, as Greece only had one qualifier, which was much more than the €9.7 million that Lyon received, as the French TV pool was divided between three clubs.

"Pep Guardiola - can't win them all"

OK, in the case of the English clubs in the Champions League, the allocation works as follows:

(a) Half depends on the position that the club finished in the previous season’s Premier League with the team finishing first receiving 40%, the team finishing second 30%, third 20% and fourth 10%.

(b) Half depends on the progress in the current season’s Champions League, which is based on the number of games played, starting from the group stages.

In other words, success has a direct impact on the amount of money received. Qualifying for the Champions League in fourth place is obviously beneficial, but that team would not receive as much as the teams finishing above it based on the above algorithm.

Of course, fourth place has other unhappy implications, as there is potential for an awkward qualifying match at an inconvenient stage of the club’s preparation (like Arsenal having to play Udinese this season). This season could actually be even worse, if Chelsea win the Champions League, as this would guarantee them qualification into next season’s competition. They would take the place of the team finishing fourth in the Premier League, which would then be bumped into the Europa League.

TV Pool – Allocation

Let’s see the result of these factors on the allocation of this season’s TV pool, taking Chelsea as the example, which seems only fair, as they have progressed furthest. We shall assume that the size of the English TV pool remains unchanged from last season at €84 million.

Chelsea finished second in the 2010/11 Premier League, so they receive 30% of the half allocated to this element, meaning 30% of €42 million, giving €12.6 million. Including the final, they will play a total of 13 games in this season’s Champions League, which works out to 39% of the total 33 games played by the four English clubs, generating another €16.5 million. They have benefited here from the early exits of the other English clubs with the two Manchester sides going out at the group stage and Arsenal being defeated by Milan in the last 16. In total, that gives Chelsea €29.1 million from the TV pool (€12.6 million plus €16.5 million).

This is €2.1 million more than the €27.0 million they received from the TV pool in the 2010/11 season. This might seem like a relatively small increment, given that the Blues only reached the quarter-finals last year, but this is due to the way the money is allocated. In particular, Chelsea won the 2009/10 Premier League, so they received 40% of the half of the TV pool based on the previous season’s Premier League finish, as opposed to 30% this season. In other words, they receive €4.2 million less this season for this element (€12.6 million minus €16.8 million), which offsets the additional €6.3 million (€16.5 million minus €10.2 million) from progress in the Champions League.

This factor is not very well understood among the football public, but it can have a significant impact on Champions League revenue. If we look at Arsenal, yes, they qualified for Europe’s flagship tournament this season, but their fourth place was only worth €4.2 million, which is a quarter of the €16.2 million that Manchester United received for their first place in the Premier League.

Similarly, progress in the actual tournament is very worthwhile, not just for the obvious higher prize money, but also the impact that it has on the TV pool allocation. For example, both United and City did not get out of their group this season, so received €7.6 million, while Arsenal got €2.6 million more (€10.2 million) for reaching the last 16.

Prize Money – Allocation

The allocation of the prize money is thankfully a bit simpler. This season, Chelsea will receive at least €26.5 million, which is made up of €7.2 million participation, €3.2 million from the group stage (3 wins at €800,000 plus 2 draws at €400,000), €3 million for the last 16, €3.3 million for the quarter-final, €4.2 for the semi-final and €5.6 million for the final (with the conservative assumption that their injury-ravaged team finish runners-up).

Total Money

So, Chelsea’s total revenue for the 2011/12 Champions League will be at least €55.6 million, comprising €26.5 million prize money and €29.1 million TV pool. That is €11.1 million higher than last season’s €44.5 million, when they exited the competition at the quarter-final stage.

Of course, if they actually win the final, they would receive €9 million prize money instead of the assumed €5.6 million, increasing their total money by €3.4 million (€9 million less €5.6 million) to €59.0 million, €14.5 million higher than last season.

In Sterling terms, Chelsea will receive £46.4 million (if they finish runners-up) or £49.2 million (if they win the final). That would be either £9.3 million or £12.1 million more than last season.

Exchange rates obviously play a part in the Sterling sum received by the club, but I have assumed a constant rate of €1.20 to the Pound for the sake of simplicity.

Other Clubs

Let’s look at how the other English clubs have fared in revenue terms compared to the previous season: 

• Manchester United – down £14.0 million. Although they received a minor uplift (€2 million) from being parachuted into the Europa League, this was nowhere near enough to compensate for the difference in the Champions League (did not get out of the group compared to reaching the final last season).
• Manchester City – up £18.2 million. Qualified for the Champions League instead of the Europa League.
• Arsenal – down £1.8 million. Virtually unchanged, as they were knocked-out in the last 16 both seasons. Only difference comes from the market pool.
• Tottenham – down £22.2 million, as they only qualified for the Europa League, as opposed to the Champions League in 2010/11.
• Stoke City – up £4.2 million. Reached the last 32 of the Europa League.
• Birmingham City – up £3.7 million. Qualified for the Europa League, but did not get out of the group.
• Fulham – up £3.7 million. Qualified for the Europa League, but did not get out of the group.
• Liverpool – down £5.1 million. Did not qualify for Europe, but reached the last 16 of the Europa League the previous season.

My one caveat here is that the TV pool allocations for the Europa League have been estimated based on previous seasons, so will not be completely accurate.

"Sir Alex Ferguson - Mind over Money" 

Other Factors

In addition to the TV money analysed above, clubs will also benefit from additional gate receipts from staging European matches. Chelsea will receive money from UEFA for the final, but this amount is unspecified.

Finally, participation and progress in the Champions League should boost a club’s sponsorship revenue, both in the short term through contractual bonuses, and longer term by strengthening the club’s brand attractiveness through increased exposure and profile.

However, this is difficult to quantify, as a former Barcelona vice-president admitted, “What is harder to put into figures is the impact it has on your brand. That is very difficult to discern. There is no doubt we got a massive boost from winning the competition. We were on television and on the front of all newspapers all around the world, but that increased exposure and interest doesn’t lead to an immediate increase in the value of your sponsorship deals.”

There is no doubt that competing in the Champions League makes a big difference financially, especially as the equitable nature of the distribution methodology for TV money in England means that there is not a huge difference between Premier League payments to the leading clubs.

In other words, whatever the size of the increases and decreases compared to last season, it should not be forgotten that all English clubs playing in the Champions League still have a considerable financial advantage over the rest of the Premier League, as can be seen by the above analysis of TV revenue.

Nevertheless, Chelsea and Manchester City will surely enjoy their additional funds from this season’s Champions league, while Manchester United and Tottenham will have to cope with reduced revenue. All part of the fun and games aboard UEFA’s Trans-Europe Express.

What Is The Champions League Worth To Arsenal?

As Manchester City faced Spurs last week in what was virtually a play-off for the final Champions League place, the media’s hyperbole machine went into overdrive about how much qualification would be worth to the winners. However, if you looked at a variety of newspapers, you would end up very confused about the size of the prize. The Times and the Telegraph were relatively sober, talking about possible extra revenue of £20m, while the tabloids were more aggressive with the Sun describing the match as a “£50m clash” and the Mirror labeling it “the £60m showdown”. The headiest estimate actually came from the Independent, which provided a detailed break-down that apparently added up to “£70m for winning the Champions League”.

Rather than attempting to work out exactly how much revenue Spurs will earn from their unaccustomed foray into Europe, I thought it would be more appropriate to calculate how much the Champions League is worth to Arsenal for a number of reasons. First, as Arsenal have been in the Champions League for more than a couple of days, we actually have some genuine financial data to review for the Gunners.

Second, it is far from certain that Spurs will reach the Champions League. In fact, they have only qualified for the right to play a Champions League qualifying match. In years gone by, this would have effectively been a walk-over against a team from somewhere like Slovenia, but UEFA has recently modified the qualification format in order to help teams from the smaller nations reach the lucrative group phase. This has the added effect of making it more difficult for teams from the more established nations to progress and Spurs could find themselves facing tricky opponents like Lyon, Sevilla, Werder Bremen or Sampdoria. For Spurs fans, this could be horribly reminiscent of when Everton broke into the top four in 2005, only to fall at the first fence, crashing out to Villareal in the third qualifying round.

Third, Arsenal are my team, so there.

"Crouch's £50m header"

Before we try to quantify the value of getting into the Champions League, we need to think about what is relevant to this discussion. To my mind, there are five revenue streams: (a) participation and performance; (b) television; (c) match day; (d) sponsorship; (e) increase in value of the squad.

The first two of those areas come from revenue distributed by UEFA. Since the birth of the Champions League, the amount of revenue that UEFA generates from broadcast and sponsorship deals has increased exponentially from €45m in 1992/93 to €1.1 bln this season. Despite the difficult economic market, this growth shows little sign of slowing down. In fact, 2009/10 is the first season of a new, improved three year deal, which will deliver a 29% increase in the amount of revenue available for distribution to participating clubs. Net of costs and payments to national associations, this has gone up from €583m in 2008/09 to a jaw-dropping €751m in 2009/10. This pot is divided into two parts: (a) fixed sums based on participation and results (rising from €308m in 2008/09 to €413m in 2009/10); (b) variable amounts dependent on the value of the TV market of the associations represented in the Champions League (from €275m to €338m).

The above table lists the fixed sums payable to the 32 teams that qualify for the Champions League and highlights the significant increases this season. Right off the bat, each team is awarded €3.8m for participation plus another €550,000 per match played in the group phase, regardless of the result. Assuming that a club fulfills its six group fixtures (a fairly safe assumption), that’s worth €3.3m. This means that each team is guaranteed €7.1m for qualifying for the group stage, even if it loses every single game.

There is also a performance bonus of €800,000 for each victory in the group stage plus €400,000 for a draw. So, if a team really puts its pedal to the metal and manages to win all six of their group matches, they will get €4.8m. If a team qualifies for the first knock-out round (the last 16), they are awarded a further €3m. In other words, if a team gets through the group phase and wins all six group matches, it would receive the princely sum of €14.9m.

There are additional performance prizes for each further stage reached: quarter-final €3.3m, semi-final €4m, final €5.2m and winners €9m. So if you go all the way and win the damn thing, you would earn a total of €31.2m, which is serious money in anybody’s book(s).

In addition to these fixed sums, the clubs receive a share of the television money from the so-called market pool. This is a variable amount, which is allocated depending on a number of factors: (a) the size/value of a country’s TV market, so the amount allocated to teams in England is more than that given to, say, Spain, as English television generates more revenue; (b) the number of representatives from your country, so an English team (with four representatives) might receive less than a German team (with only two representatives); (c) the position of a club in its domestic championship in the previous season, so if two teams from England both reach the quarter-final, the one that finished ahead of the other in the Premier League would get more money; (d) the number of matches played in the current season’s Champions League.

This complicated, but logical system, throws up some interesting anomalies. If we examine the table above, which lists the revenue distributed by UEFA in 2008/09 for the top ten teams, we can see that Manchester United (€38.3m) actually earned more than Barcelona (€31m), even though they were absolutely hammered by the Catalans in the final, purely because they were allocated €10.6m more TV money. Similarly, Bayern Munich, who were eliminated in the quarter-finals, also earned more than Barcelona with €34.6m, as they secured the biggest slice of the TV pie with €21.5m. This is because the German TV market is among the most valuable and the revenue for the German association only had to be shared between two clubs, In comparison, the English revenue had to be split between four clubs. This factor also explains the presence of PSV Eindhoven in eighth position in the money table, even though they did not make it out of their group, as they were given all €19.6m of the Dutch revenue, being that country’s only representative.

This opens up an intriguing possibility for the red and white half of North London. If Spurs are beaten in their qualifying match, there would be a double whammy for Arsenal fans, as they would not only have another opportunity to laugh at their North London neighbours, but there would also be more money heading Arsenal’s way, as England’s TV pool would only have to be shared between three teams instead of the four usual suspects. That pot was worth €55.5m in season 2008/09, but is likely to increase to at least €70m for next season, so this would be very handy.

"Robin Reliant"

Enough of these general facts, how much have Arsenal actually earned from the Champions League? The UEFA analysis for 2008/09 lists Arsenal at sixth place with €26.8m, comprising €15.5m for participation and performance and €11.3m from the TV pool. For the current season, we don’t yet have the figures for television, but we can already work out the fixed fees, as we know the results. Arsenal will be given €3.8m for Champions League participation, €3.3m for group stage participation (six matches at €550,000), €3.6m for group performance (four wins, one draw, one loss), €3.0m for reaching the knockout stage and €3.3m for reaching the quarter-final. That adds up to €17.0m, which is more than the €15.5m earned the previous season, even though the team went out a round earlier (quarter-final vs. semi-final), which highlights the revenue growth.

Assuming that Arsenal’s share of the TV pool rises in line with the total TV revenue (€275m to €338m), ceteris paribus they would get an additional 23%, increasing their variable revenue from €11.3m to €13.9m. Therefore, a reasonable estimate of Arsenal’s revenue distributed from UEFA would be €17.0m fixed fees plus €13.9m variable fees, giving a total of €30.9m.

As anybody who has opened a newspaper recently will know, the exchange rate can also have an impact. In particular, the weakening of the Pound against the Euro over the last two years has significantly increased the UEFA revenue in Sterling terms. If we take our estimate of €30.9m, this is worth £26.9m to Arsenal at the current exchange rate of 1.15, compared to just £20.6m when the rate was 1.50. That’s a notable difference of £6.3m.

"Two greats for the price of one"

In addition to centrally generated revenue, clubs directly benefit from match day revenue. Arsenal do not separately analyse this between different tournaments, but we can still come up with a sensible guess. In the past, directors have stated that the Emirates brings in more than £3m a match, while Deloittes Football Money League estimated €25.7m for Arsenal’s 2008/09 season. We know that Arsenal played six home games that year (three group matches, last 16, quarter-final and semi-final), so that implies an average of €4.3m. At the exchange rates used by Deloittes, that suggests that each match is worth £3.6m. This is a little more than we might expect, but this figure also includes merchandise plus food and drink, so is not completely out of court. Let’s call it £3.5m a match, which would produce £17.5m match day revenue this season, based on the five matches played (three in the group, last 16 and quarter-final).

That would mean a total so far of £44.4m Champions League revenue for Arsenal this season (£26.9m distributed from UEFA plus £17.5m match day directly generated by the club).

Importantly, most of this money goes directly to the bottom line, which is why some clubs are so desperate for Champions League qualification, as it can make an enormous difference to their business model. In Arsenal’s case, Deloittes calculated that Arsenal’s Champions League revenue accounted for 20% of the club’s total revenue, which was second only to Werder Bremen (23%). In other words, although this might not be critical to Arsenal’s financials, it’s still pretty important, especially when you consider that Real Madrid’s direct revenue from the Champions League is less than 10% of its overall total.

"From Russia with love"

In addition to this tangible revenue, other revenue is also likely to increase, but is very difficult to quantify unless you’re a football club insider. Indirectly, Arsenal’s participation in the Champions League should boost their sponsorship and other commercial revenues, both in the short term through contractual bonuses, and longer term by strengthening the club’s brand attractiveness through increased exposure and profile. However, a former Barcelona vice-president admitted, “What is harder to put into figures is the impact it has on your brand. That is very difficult to discern. There is no doubt we got a massive boost from winning the competition. We were on television and on the front of all newspapers all around the world, but that increased exposure and interest doesn’t lead to an immediate increase in the value of your sponsorship deals.”

I would be surprised if Arsenal’s sponsorship contracts did not included some sort of incentive clauses rewarding the club for reaching the later stages of the Champions League, but my guess is that they’re not overly lucrative, given that Arsenal’s commercial deals were negotiated primarily to secure front-loaded funds to help pay for the construction of the Emirates. However, going forward, this could easily be worth another £5-7m.

"In the Nick of time"

Finally, the value of Arsenal’s players should have increased as a result of competing among Europe’s best and placing themselves in the shop window. As an example, Nicklas Bendtner is officially the fourth highest scorer in this season’s Champions League with five goals, only behind Barcelona’s Lionel Messi, Real Madrid’s Cristiano Ronaldo and Bayern Munich’s Ivica Olic. That must have added a few million to his transfer fee. Of course, this will only generate additional revenue if the player is actually sold, which Arsenal may not want, but I think you understand my point. On a related theme, taking part in the Champions League helps the club to attract and retain players, hence so much interest in what will happen to Fernando Torres and other “stars” at Liverpool now they have failed to achieve the qualification “guaranteed” by their manager.

A study commissioned by MasterCard suggested that the winners of the Champions League could make up to €110m, though this included €30m from sponsorship bonus payments, €14m commercial revenues and €15m increased squad value, all of which seem highly speculative to me. This heady estimate does makes sense when you appreciate that MasterCard is an official sponsor of the Champions League, so clearly has a vested interest in calculating as high a figure as possible. Having said that, it is difficult to argue with the man who conducted the research, Professor Simon Chadwick of the Sport Business Strategy department at Coventry University, when he said, “The competition continues to be an important source of revenue and commercial activity for clubs, especially for those that qualify for the knockout phase of the competition. This inevitably makes a significant contribution to the annual turnover of the clubs involved.”

"It's worth this much"

What about if Arsenal just missed qualification to the Champions League? Surely the Europa League would compensate the revenue shortfall to some extent? Not really. If you manage to battle your way through that interminable competition and end up with the trophy, you would still only receive €6m, compared to the €31m awarded to the winners of the Champions League. Or, to put it another way, the prize money at the Champions League is more than five times as much as the Europa League. Given the paltry attendances “enjoyed” by Europe’s secondary tournament, it is hardly surprising that some teams effectively sabotage their own chances in this competition by playing their reserves. From a financial perspective, it’s obviously much better to focus your limited resources on trying to qualify for the Champions League.

Furthermore, the revenue gap between the Premier League and the Champions League is also closing. In the Premier League all clubs receive £14.6m for participating, £10.1m for overseas rights plus another £2m from sponsorship and licensing deals. On top of that, the winners receive £16m for winning the competition plus £500,000 for every match of theirs shown live on TV (a guaranteed minimum of ten appearances, but let’s assume there were 15, giving £7.5m). That produces a grand total of just over £50m for winning the Premier League.

How about the Champions League? First we have the €31.2m participation and performance fees we listed above. To that, we need to add an estimate for the TV pool. As a proxy, let’s take the €18.8m earned by previous Premier League champions Manchester United in 2008/09 and uplift it by the 23% projected increase in total TV money in 2009/10 to give us €23.1m. That produces a total of €54m for winning the Champions League, which is equivalent to £47m. That’s only a whisker away from the £50m for winning the Premiership. The difference is that one takes 38 games to win, while the other one only requires a “lucky” 13.

"Not so super?"

There is little sign of this gravy train being derailed. According to a report by Futures Sport + Entertainment, the Champions League final overtook the Super Bowl as the most-watched sports event last year with a “reach” of 206m people compared to 162m, even though that was the best ever figure for the NFL’s flagship. The analysts said that the Super Bowl “is still growing, but, extraordinarily, the Champions League is growing faster with room for significant expansion.” That probably refers to UEFA’s decision to move the final from its traditional Wednesday evening to Saturday, which makes it more convenient for Asian and American viewers. Indeed, this year’s final between Inter and Bayern Munich will be televised live in China on CCTV-5 and Fox Television in the US, virtually guaranteeing an increase in the viewing figures.

We can now understand why the economically savvy Arsene Wenger is so proud of Arsenal’s record in Europe’s premier competition. After the comprehensive defeat of Fulham on Sunday, he argued, “I believe there are two big trophies in England. The Premiership and to qualify for Champions League, and that’s what we have done. For me it’s not enough but it is the minimum requested, and we’ve done that 13 years on the trot now which is not too bad.” Many fans would prefer the team to win an actual trophy, but you can see where Wenger is coming from.

"We've qualified again"

Arsenal’s chief executive, Ivan Gazidis, says of the Champions League, “It is hugely prestigious, one of the competitions you have to win if you want to be thought of as a great club. Financially it is important over time, but it is not life or death.” That may be true, but we have seen that with a reasonable run, the competition delivers at least £44.4m revenue to Arsenal – and that does not include any additional sponsorship revenue, which could bring in a further £5-7m, or any increase in the value of the squad. Therefore, anybody suggesting that the Champions League is worth around £50m to Arsenal will get little argument from me or, indeed, Arsenal’s board.