Rabu, 09 Maret 2011

Is Football's Gravy Train Slowing Down?


Last month Deloitte published the latest edition of the Football Money League, their annual ranking of European clubs by revenue. Once again, the Premier League featured prominently with seven English clubs listed in the top 20, though the two highest earning clubs were still the Spanish giants, Real Madrid and Barcelona. On the face of it, this was yet another demonstration of the Premier League’s ability to generate revenue, while defying the effects of the economic recession.

Once again, Manchester United were the highest ranked English club in third position, while Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool all retained their positions in the top ten, though Manchester City were the biggest movers, rising nine places to 11th, one position better than Tottenham. Aston Villa were a new entry to the Money League in 20th position.

Moreover, the combined revenue of the clubs in the Premier League of around £2 billion is still miles higher than all other football leagues (Bundesliga £1.4 billion, La Liga and Serie A both £1.3 billion), though it should be pointed out that the German league is actually more profitable. On top of that, Deloitte forecast that revenue for the 2010/11 season will rise once again to £2.2 billion, thanks to the new television contract and some higher sponsorship deals.

In short, everything would appear to be rosy in the Premier League’s garden, at least from a revenue perspective. However, there have been a few indications recently that all might not be well with the Premier League’s business model with revenue growth slowing down at most clubs. Even Arsenal, who have been portrayed by UEFA as a shining example of a well-run football club, reported a 3% decline in their revenue for the first six months of 2010/11.

The signs were already there in the cycle of 2009/10 results. Revenue was flat at clubs like Everton and Sunderland, while the leading clubs have by and large also been suffering. In fact, we can reasonably take the financials of what can now be referred to as the “Sky Six” (Manchester United, Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City and Tottenham) as a decent proxy for the Premier League, as they account for almost 60% of the league’s total revenue.

In 2009/10, the revenue for these six clubs grew by 5%, which looks fairly impressive, but there are a few aspects that should be stressed. First, more than two-thirds of the £56 million increase came from just one club, Manchester City, who were boosted by a series of “friendly” commercial deals from the Middle East, while there was virtually no growth from the traditional “Big Four” clubs. Second, although revenue has risen by 77% (about £500 million) since 2004, very little of that growth has come in the last three years. This highlights the importance of the three-year TV deal with Sky, which once again climbed in 2008. Since that date, the annual percentage increase in revenue has fallen away from around 20% to 5%.

For the Premier League, there’s no doubt that television has been the gift that keeps on giving, significantly boosting all clubs’ revenue since the self-proclaimed best league in the world first held hands with Rupert Murdoch’s minions. This has almost certainly given most clubs an inflated sense of their commercial acumen, as they have conveniently forgotten the old economics proverb about a rising tide lifting all boats. Looking at how the revenue of the top six clubs has changed over the past few years, it is striking how similar their growth has been since 2004 with only a couple of exceptional events, like Arsenal moving to the Emirates Stadium or Manchester City’s new-found ability to secure marketing deals, altering the landscape.

In fact, television is now the biggest element of revenue at Premier League clubs, contributing almost half of their turnover, though the proportion is a bit lower for the top six clubs at 40%. This is much needed when you consider that match day revenue growth has effectively come to a standstill, in fact decreasing 5% in 2009/10, while commercial income barely grew at all (3%), if you exclude Manchester City. There are legitimate question marks over whether the Premier League’s growth engine will continue to motor ahead or whether it has stalled.

In order to understand what is going on, we need to explore each of the three main revenue streams at football clubs in detail: (1) Match day revenue - largely derived from gate receipts (including season tickets and memberships); (2) Broadcast revenue – largely from the Premier League and Champions League, but also including Cup competitions; (3) Commercial revenue – mainly sponsorships and merchandising.

1. Match day

Match day revenue is traditionally the most important source of revenue for football clubs, and that remains the case for our six clubs, even though it has been surpassed by broadcasting revenue. In fact, relatively high ticket prices, allied with a lot of corporate hospitality, mean that five of the top nine places in the Money League for match day revenue belong to English clubs with both Manchester United and Arsenal generating around £100 million a season.

That said, match day revenue actually declined at four of our six clubs last year (10% at Chelsea, 8% at Manchester United, 7% at Tottenham and 6% at Arsenal), while it was flat at Liverpool. This is nothing new under the sun with match day revenue hardly growing at all since 2007.

There are really only five ways to grow match day revenue: (a) raise ticket prices; (b) stage more matches; (c) increase the number of fans; (d) have a better mix of spectators (in terms of revenue generation, if not passion); (e) build a new, larger stadium. Let’s take a look at each of these factors in turn.

(a) Ticket prices. It’s difficult to see how English clubs can greatly increase ticket prices, as they are already among the highest in Europe. Even Manchester United announced a freeze in their season ticket prices this year, after the Glazers had increased prices by an average of 10% a season since their unwelcome arrival. Chelsea did raised their ticket prices at the beginning of this season, but this followed four consecutive seasons of freezing prices and was the first increase since July 2005.

"If you build it, they will come"

In a blaze of publicity, the rise in VAT also lead to the first £100 “ordinary” ticket in English football at Arsenal, and though cheaper options are available, prices are considerably higher here than, say, the £10 a head paid by most Borussia Dortmund fans.

The conclusion has to be that there is some scope for raising ticket prices, but not much. As former culture secretary Andy Burnham said, “We have seen fans priced out of going to football”, and resistance is growing towards higher prices. Last week, the Arsenal Supporters Trust warned the club that it should not attempt to cover the cost of wage increases via season ticket price increases.

(b) Number of matches. Match day revenue obviously depends on the number of games played at home, so extended runs in the cup competitions can provide a significant boost to revenue, even if the TV and prize money is inconsequential. The other side of the coin is that fewer home games can lead to a reduction in revenue, which is exactly what happened to four of our clubs. Manchester United, Arsenal and Tottenham all played fewer home ties in the domestic cups, while Chelsea were hurt by an earlier Champions League exit. Arsenal were particularly impacted as they had an incredible five fewer home matches in 2009/10 (27 compared to 32 the previous season).

(c) Number of spectators. The other aspect of volume in the economists’ price-volume equation is the number of bums on seats (“no standing, please”). Average attendances fell slightly at five of our six clubs last season, the one exception being Manchester City, whose crowds rose by over 6%. In fact, crowd levels have been remarkably resilient in this difficult recessionary climate with all of our clubs filling at least 95% of their stadium capacity. That’s a notable demonstration of support, underlined by the fact that average crowds so far in the 2010/11 season have actually marginally increased at five clubs with only Liverpool falling (the Hodgson factor?). The average attendance at Manchester United has held up, even though season ticket renewals fell 5%. Of course, the corollary of this positive news is that there is hardly any room for growth.

(d) Spectator mix. Although the “prawn sandwich brigade” is roundly derided by the majority of fans, there’s little doubt that they allow football clubs to get more bang for their buck. Perhaps the best example here is Arsenal, whose move to the Emirates brought them far more premium priced seats and notably expanded corporate hospitality facilities. In fact, Arsenal make 35% of their match day revenue from just 9,000 premium seats at the Emirates. Clearly, you don’t want too many bankers and other corporate types killing the atmosphere at the ground, but an effective balance can be struck.

(e) New stadium. Arsenal’s move to the Emirates more than doubled their match day revenue in 2006/07 from £44 million to £91 million, moving them four places up the main Money League from ninth to fifth. Sometimes, it is possible to expand the capacity of the current stadium, as Manchester United did in 2006/07, when they completed the upper quadrants at Old Trafford. However, the big money growth, especially for those clubs with smaller grounds, comes with a move to a larger, more modern stadium, which is why so many have been looking at such a possibility. However, as we have seen, there are many hurdles to overcome before successfully completing such a project.

Tottenham’s hopes of moving to the Olympic Stadium appear to have been thwarted, while Hicks and Gillett’s famous spade never quite reached the ground at Stanley Park in Liverpool. Similarly, Chelsea have struggled to find a suitable location in West London, though the Earls Court Exhibition Centre may once again be on the agenda. Manchester City’s match day income has been restricted by the deal they signed with the local council, though a new agreement means that they would get more benefit if they were to expand the capacity at the City of Manchester Stadium.

All of these factors produce vastly different match day revenues per match with Manchester United and Arsenal really coining it at around £3.5 million, while Tottenham and Manchester City earn considerably less at £1.5 million and £1 million respectively. Interestingly, Chelsea generate far more revenue (£2.4 million) than Liverpool (£1.6 million), even though their ground capacity is nearly 4,000 lower. If you ever wanted to understand why clubs are exploring other options, there’s the reason right there.

2. Television

However, in the modern world, it’s television that drives revenue growth. Its impact can be clearly seen by looking at the 45% uplift in 2008, which coincided with the introduction of the new three-year TV deal. Last season, it was the same old story with broadcasting income rising an average of just under 10% at our six clubs, increasing its share of total revenue to 40%. In fact, it’s even more important lower down the Premier League, where TV can account for a staggering 70% or more of revenue at clubs like Blackburn, Bolton and Wigan.

The Premier League can be criticised for many things, but their ability to market the “product” is beyond censure. The growth in payments secured for the TV rights has been nothing short of astonishing from the initial £253 million 5-year deal in 1992 to the £3.4 billion payment that commenced this season. To make that spectacular progress even clearer: the original deal was worth £50 million a season, while the latest brings in more than £1.1 billion.

This makes sense if you consider that audiences for live football have continued to hold up, while viewing figures have declined across the remainder of the schedule. This is premium content for pay-TV stations, whose business model relies on selling lots of subscriptions to sports channels.

Great news for football clubs, but closer examination of the new rights deals reveals an interesting (and potentially worrying) trend. Revenue for the sale of domestic TV rights (live matches and highlights) hardly grew at all in the new contract, implying that the home market may have reached saturation point. Instead, it is overseas fans that have been behind the explosive growth with the revenue doubling each time the rights are re-negotiated: 2001-04 £178 million, 2004-07 £325 million, 2007-10 £625 million and 2010-13 £1.4 billion.

Some of the increases seem barely credible: the Abu Dhabi Sports Channel paid over £200 million for the Middle East and North Africa (almost three times the £80 million paid by previous incumbent Showtime Arabia); in Singapore, an island with a population of less than 5 million people, SingTel paid £200 million to secure the rights from its rival StarHub; similarly, in Hong Kong i-Cable paid nearly £150 million, much more than the £115 million Now TV paid last time around.

As Steve McMahon, the former Liverpool player turned executive at the Singapore-based Profitable Group, said, “It is a global game. The television figures when Liverpool or Manchester United play are 600 or 700 million.” To support his assertion, the Premier League is now beamed into 575 million homes in more than 200 countries around the world.

"The future? No, very much the past"

In fact, the extraordinary globalisation of the Premier League could make English football the first world sport to earn more money from supporters abroad than at home. Foreign rights already account for 44% of the total and it would be no surprise if they overtook domestic rights in the future. Chief executive Richard Scudamore boasted, “By focusing on the quality of the game, their players and their grounds, the clubs have produced a competition that people want to watch – both at matches and at home.”

However, he who pays the piper calls the tune and there are a couple of downsides to this overseas expansion. First, it makes it more likely that kick-off times will be changed to suit fans abroad, so we can expect more lunchtime matches that can be screened during the evening peak viewing time in Asia. Second, it becomes imperative to continually promote the Premier League brand abroad, hence the unpopular proposal to play a 39th game abroad (in the same way that the NFL and NBA have marketed their product by staging matches in London) on top of the customary exhausting pre-season tours.

The other concern has to be that in the same way that revenue from the sale of domestic rights appears to have reached a plateau, this might now also be the case for foreign rights. Certainly, it would be surprising if the next deal were to double in value once again.

"Coming on tour near you soon"

Having said that, it should be acknowledged that the Premier League TV deal is still the best around, compared to other European leagues. At £1.1 billion a season, it is higher than Serie A £760 million, Ligue Un £560 million, La Liga £500 million and the Bundesliga £340 million. The difference is largely due to those foreign rights, e.g. the Premier League earns £480 million a season, while La Liga only receives £130 million and the Bundesliga a paltry £35 million.

This does not necessarily provide such a big competitive advantage to the leading English clubs, as the distribution is more equitable in the Premier League, meaning that the major Spanish and Italian clubs earned more broadcasting revenue last year. From this season, this may well change in Italy, as they have now moved to a collective agreement, leaving Spain as the only important European league where rights are sold on an individual basis.

The Premier League make great play of the fact that their distribution formula is the most equitable of all Europe’s major football leagues, citing the ratio between bottom and top clubs of just 1 to 1.7, which is considerably lower than La Liga’s 1 to 12. In 2009/10, Manchester United received the most money from the Premier League with £53 million, while bottom club Portsmouth received a very respectable £32 million. However, in La Liga, both Barcelona and Real Madrid received £117 million, while the bottom club only got £10 million. Actually, in Spain the drop starts almost immediately with third placed Valencia only receiving £35 million.

That said, there are ways in which the Premier League distribution model does favour the leading clubs. It’s true that half of the domestic money and all of the overseas rights are split evenly among the 20 clubs, but 50% of the domestic rights is not. For these funds, 25% is for merit payments, determined by the club’s final league position, and 25% is paid in facility fees, based on how often a club is shown live on television.

Each place in the league is worth an additional £800,000, which can make quite a difference, so Chelsea took the maximum £16 million last year, while Portsmouth only received £800,000. Similarly, each club is guaranteed a minimum of ten TV appearances with a maximum of 24. It’s no surprise to see that the leading clubs feature much more often than those lower down the league, so Manchester United’s £13 million facility fee was more than twice that of Hull City (£6.3 million).

Fair enough, you might think, given that more people are likely to tune in to, say, Arsenal against Spurs than Birmingham City against Blackburn Rovers. However, that does rather beg the question of whether clubs with a global fan base like Manchester United and Liverpool might start agitating for a higher share of the growing overseas rights on the same principle.

There’s certainly little difference between the leading clubs in terms of Premier League distributions at the moment with the range between first and fifth place being only £3 million (£53 million to £50 million). This only emphasises the importance of reaching the Champions League to these clubs with the four qualifiers last season benefiting by an average of £29 million each, excluding gate receipts and additional payments from sponsors.

The distributions are a mixture of participation fees (€7.1 million) and performance bonuses (in the group stage, €800,000 for each victory plus €400,000 for each draw). There are additional payments made to teams that progress further in the competition with €3 million the reward for advancing to the round of 16, €3.3 million for reaching the quarter-finals and €4.2 million for a semi-final place. The winners of the final collect a further €9 million, with €5.6 million going to the runners-up. Distributions are based in Euros, so the weakening of Sterling over the last few years has further increased the value to English clubs.

In addition, clubs receive a share of the television money from the so-called market pool. This is a variable amount, which is allocated depending on a number of factors: (a) the size/value of a country’s TV market, so the amount allocated to teams in England is more than that given to, say, Spain, as English television generates more revenue; (b) the number of representatives from a country, so an English team (with four representatives) might receive less than a German team (with only three representatives); (c) the position of a club in its domestic championship in the previous season, so if two teams from England both reach the quarter-final, the one that finished ahead of the other in the Premier League would get more money; (d) the number of matches played in the current season’s Champions League.

The size of the Champions League revenue pool has been steadily increasing, but once again the growth rate has been slowing down. Nevertheless, there is still an enormous difference between the Champions League and Europa League in terms of payments. Last season, Fulham’s valiant run to the final of the Europa League only earned them £8 million, which is £16 million lower than the smallest payment received by an English representative in the Champions League. Therefore, Liverpool’s failure to qualify for Europe’s premier competition will have a big negative impact on their finances, while Tottenham’s will receive a hefty shot in the arm.

As with any other business, however, there are threats to the Premier League’s dominance of the football television market, starting with the courts of law.

A recent non-binding opinion from an advocate at the European Court of Justice in a case brought by a Portsmouth pub landlady stated that broadcasters cannot prevent customers using cheaper foreign satellite television services to watch Premier League football. This brings into question the current model whereby the Premier League licenses its content on a country-by-country basis, which has allowed the league to fully maximise the value of its rights.

If this opinion is confirmed by a court ruling, the implication is that in the future the Premier League would have to sell the rights in one bundle to the European Union, theoretically reducing the revenue received, at least according to Omar Sheikh of Credit Suisse, “Ultimately the value of the rights will probably go down, because there are only two likely bidders on a pan-European basis.” On the other hand, a relatively low proportion of overseas income currently comes from Europe and the Premier League has to date proved very adroit at finding ways to get the most out of its TV rights.

There are other regulatory challenges to the current model. Media watchdog Ofcom has already ordered Sky to give rival broadcasters cheaper access to its exclusive rights, maybe by up to a third, which may in turn lead to Sky paying lower prices for those rights, though the Premier League (apparently linked by an umbilical cord to Sky) has decided to take legal action in an attempt to overturn the decision, as “the consequences for UK sport and UK sports fans are too serious and fundamental for us to ignore.” Yeah, right. Pull the other one, it’s got bells on.

The reality is that TV channels are not immune from the recession, as we saw when ITV Digital and Setanta went bankrupt. Although the latter’s collapse has in itself not proved problematic, as ESPN snapped up the TV rights relinquished by Setanta, if Sky were to hit financial difficulties this would be extremely serious for the Premier League and by extension the clubs. This may not seem likely, but it is not out of the realms of possibility. For example, Mediapro, the company that owns the TV rights in Spain for La Liga, applied for bankruptcy protection last year.

Although the Premier League is the current undisputed “heavyweight champion of the world” in terms of global popularity, that could change if more of football’s top stars decide to move to another league like La Liga, e.g. Cristiano Ronaldo to Real Madrid, as the “product” would then be devalued. It’s also true that to a certain extent the Premier League have had it easy so far selling its content overseas and it’s only a matter of time before the other leagues pull their fingers out and provide some meaningful competition.

"Goodbye Premier League, hello La Liga"

Perhaps the most intriguing question is how the Premier League reacts to new technology, which could be both an opportunity and a threat for the leading clubs. To date, it has responded in the traditional old economy manner by employing a company to protect its rights online and issuing lawsuits against those that provide illegal streams on the internet.

However, the emergence of fast, broadband networks might just be the catalyst for clubs to interact directly with fans. Although ventures like MUTV and Arsenal TV Online have hardly set the world alight, it is clear that foreign owners can see huge potential in online services, hence Stan Kroenke’s purchase of a 50% share in Arsenal Broadband (more than his 29.9% stake in the club). To give an idea of the size of the prize, the value of the New York Yankees’ official cable network is three times as high as the club itself.

Just because television is the medium of choice now does not mean that this will always be the case (“Video killed the radio star”) and there may well be a paradigm shift in the future in how fans watch football and how clubs generate broadcasting revenue. In the long-term, you can envisage a scenario where clubs heavily discount tickets to encourage fans to attend, as they provide much of the atmosphere and excitement that makes the Premier League such an appealing spectacle. One day they might even “invert the pyramid” and pay fans to attend…

3. Commercial

Back in today’s hard-hearted world, commercial revenue had been declining in the Premier League, but it rose an impressive 13% for our six clubs last season, though the performance was very much a mixed bag. Most of the growth came from Manchester City, whose commercial income grew a staggering 159% from £18 million to £47 million, thanks to a raft of amicable agreements with companies based in the Middle East. Manchester United have also been no slouches in the commercial arena, as their new territory specific approach delivered many new secondary partners like Turkish Airlines, Betfair, DHL, Thomas Cook, Singha and Epson. On the other hand, commercial revenue fell at both Arsenal and Liverpool.

Even with these improvements, there is still a lot of scope for growth if you compare how much revenue German clubs generate. Although this is facilitated by advertisers loving the German combination of high crowds and easily accessible televised games, it still seems strange that Schalke 04 can earn more commercial revenue (£66 million) than all but one English club. Even the £81 million generated by a fabulous franchise like Manchester United pales into insignificance relative to the £144 million produced by Bayern Munich.

That said, the leading English clubs have all managed to increase their shirt sponsorship in 2010/11, some of them significantly: Liverpool’s deal with Standard Chartered is £12.5m more than the £7.5m paid by Carlsberg; Manchester United’s deal with Aon is £6m better than the £14m from AIG; Chelsea have negotiated a £4 million increase in their Samsung deal to £14 million; while Tottenham have adopted an innovative arrangement of different shirt sponsors for league (Autonomy) and cup competitions (Investec), worth a combined £12.5 million compared to the previous £8.5 million with Mansion. In fact, the total shirt sponsorship revenue in the Premier League has now overtaken the Bundesliga.

In the same way, clubs are still managing to increase revenue from their deals with kit suppliers. There was another contractual step-up in Manchester United’s amazing Nike deal to £25 million, while Chelsea signed an eight-year extension of their deal with Adidas, which greatly increased the annual payment by £8 million from £12 million to £20 million.

Although “the boom in European football merchandising is ongoing”, according to Dr. Peter Rohlmann of PR Marketing, only two Premier League clubs make the list of top ten clubs in terms of revenue with Liverpool third and Manchester United sixth in a report compiled by Sport + Markt. However, their figures have been questioned by United, who claim that the analysis is based only on sales made at the stadium. Such figures are always debatable, as they are not always prepared on a comparable basis, e.g. if retail operations are outsourced, a club will only include a royalty payment in revenue. Nevertheless, what can be said with some confidence is that it is only really the less established leagues that can look forward to significant growth here.

The holy grail for commercial revenue seems to be selling stadium naming rights, but this has proved easier said than done for most clubs. While Chelsea have often spoken about hoping to secure £10 million per annum, the only team in our six clubs that has actually sealed a deal is Arsenal – and they needed to move to a new stadium to achieve this.

Furthermore, in order to gain funding for the stadium construction, the deal with Emirates is not particularly good (£90 million for 15 years up to 2020/21, including the shirt sponsorship until 2013/14), which has held back the club’s commercial income. Arsenal have invested in an expensive new commercial team, so we shall see whether they can deliver any growth in the short-term. As chief commercial officer Tom Fox said, “Ultimately a club is worth what it monetizes.”

That said, commercial revenue is impacted by a number of external factors: the economic climate, number of home games (merchandising and catering) and progress in cup competitions, due to performance-related clauses in sponsorship agreements.

Nevertheless, the flood of new foreign owners in the Premier League clearly believes that there is gold in them there hills. As an example, John W. Henry, whose New England Sports Ventures bought Liverpool a few months ago, spoke of the club’s global revenue potential, when outlining his team’s plans to transform the Reds’ finances, as he did with the Boston Red Sox. NESV clearly hope to use their baseball experience to generate more commercial revenue from global sources.

One other “revenue” stream for football clubs is the profit made on player sales, which you might think would be negligible for the leading clubs, but has brought in a lot of cash for Manchester United and Arsenal, who averaged £39 million and £29 million respectively over the last three years. Indeed, the main reason for the drop in Arsenal’s interim profits was the lack of player sales. Some top clubs on the continents actively use player sales as part of their business model, two obvious examples being Lyon and Porto.

"My profit on sale was how much?"

So why is revenue growth important? We can look at that from two very different perspectives.

First, English clubs need strong revenues to compete with their European rivals when trying to attract world-class players, both in terms of transfer fees and wages. This is the virtuous circle often referenced by Richard Scudamore, “The continued investment in playing talent and facilities made by the clubs is largely down to the revenue generated through the sale of our broadcast rights.” OK, he’s talking specifically about television revenue here, but the general point remains valid.

Whether this is desirable is another question, as the wages to turnover ratio is nearing a critical 70% in the Premier League. Each time that the clubs’ revenue substantially increases, usually through a more lucrative broadcasting deal, the clubs simply pass the additional funds straight into the players’ bank accounts. According to a report recently published by UEFA, although top-flight clubs across 53 countries increased their revenue by 4.8% to €11.7 billion, costs rose by nearly twice that at 9.3%, resulting in total losses of €1.2bn – more than twice the previous record.

The advent of UEFA’s Financial Fair Play regulations, which will force clubs to balance their books without relying on a benefactor’s generosity, mean that the ability of clubs to generate more revenue from football operations will become critically important. As John Henry said on his arrival at Liverpool, “With the financial fair play rules, it is really going to be revenue that drives how good you club can be in the future.”

"Richard Scudamore - nothing wrong with the Premier League"

Given their stellar showing in the Deloitte Money League, this would appear to place England’s leading clubs at a considerable advantage. Certainly, the Premier League’s “see no evil, hear no evil” chief executive, Richard Scudamore, remains confident, “People said we were a bubble going to burst. They said it eight years ago, six years ago, four years ago. From all the indicators we've got, we don't think interest is lessening.”

That is clearly the case right now, though as an industry football is very fortunate that it has such loyal “customers”. The reality is that people love football and will spend considerable sums to follow their team, be that through attending matches, watching them on television or buying the club’s merchandise – even when they disapprove of the club’s owners, as we have seen at Manchester United.

However, a few signs are emerging that the clubs will have to work harder to earn their revenue growth, become more commercial, if you will, rather than simply rely on the three-year cycle of television rights delivering ever-increasing sums of money. The time is fast approaching when they will need to seek alternatives. At that point, we shall see whether football clubs do indeed have the skills to pay the bills.

Selasa, 01 Maret 2011

Sunderland's Problem Is Not Their Fans


These are strange times for Sunderland football club. Even though this is undoubtedly the Black Cats’ best season for many a year with the team comfortably ensconced in the top ten of the Premier League, there have been rumblings of discontent, not least from Niall Quinn, the club’s popular chairman, who said that he “despised” those fans who watched the team on dodgy foreign channels in local pubs instead of coming to the ground.

Matters have not been helped by the club losing its last four games, albeit in a tricky run of fixtures (at home to Chelsea and Tottenham, away to Stoke and Everton), with some blaming the departure of leading scorer Darren Bent to Aston Villa in the January transfer window, though the main problem seems to be at the other end of the pitch with the team’s inability to defend set-pieces. In most of those defeats, they have actually played very well in parts with Asamoah Gyan and Kieran Richardson forming an effective partnership and new signing Stephane Sessegnon looking the part as a creative midfielder.

The fact is that Sunderland are still in a pretty good position (eighth at the time of writing), especially if we consider their recent history, when they have been the very definition of a yo-yo club, suffering relegation to the second tier of English football before gaining promotion back to the Premier League three times in the ten years from 1997. Since the last elevation, the club has been steadily improving its status: 15th in 2007/08 under volatile manager Roy Keane, 16th the following year when Ricky Sbragia replaced Keane and 13th last season when they were guided by current manager Steve Bruce.

Although this is a famous old club with plenty of tradition, the sad truth is that its six First Division titles were secured a long time ago (three of them in the 19th century) with the last one gained back in 1936. In fact, Sunderland last won a trophy in 1973 when they memorably defeated Don Revie’s all-conquering Leeds United 1-0 in the FA Cup Final, largely thanks to an outstanding display by their goalkeeper Jim Montgomery.

Supporters might also have cast an anxious eye towards the club’s financial results, which revealed a thumping great loss for the second year in a row. After the £27 million pre-tax loss announced for 2008/09, last season’s figures were even worse with a £28 million shortfall. This should have come as no major surprise, as Sunderland have registered losses in five of the last six years, but the magnitude of the loss is of some concern.

Despite turnover rising by nearly 150% from £26 million to £64 million in 2007/08, following the club’s promotion to the Premier League, the losses have actually significantly increased. Since that positive occasion, revenue has been essentially flat in the last three years, while expenses (including player amortisation and depreciation) have grown apace from £65 million to £97 million. As Chief Executive Steve Walton wryly noted, “Our financial results do continue to reflect a continued period of growth and development for the club. There has been significant investment made to improve our playing squad and we are now starting to see the benefits of that investment.”

If there were any doubts over Sunderland’s strategy, the club’s accounts make it very clear that they are investing in players to reduce the risk of relegation from the (lucrative) Premier League. Of course, they are not alone in adopting this policy and it is true that a majority of clubs in England’s top tier push the financial boundaries, not so much to “live the dream”, but to avoid the nightmare of falling to the Championship.

"Cheer up, Steve. It might never happen."

However, there is a price to pay for this stance, which is reflected in the dramatic £52 million increase in player costs since promotion: wages up £30 million from £24 million to £54 million; player amortisation up £22 million from £5 million to £26 million. In fact, last year Niall Quinn claimed that the club “could easily have shown a profit”, if they hadn’t made so many new signings.

In a way, this strategy is perfectly understandable and you could argue that it is working on the pitch. In 2006/07 Sunderland’s wage bill of £24 million was, by the club’s own admission, “a huge figure” for the Championship, but it did achieve the desired result, as they secured promotion at the first time of asking. Similarly, the investment in the squad has not exactly hindered the club’s steady progress up the Premier League. Having said that, it is evident that Sunderland are living well beyond their means, so someone has to cover all these losses.

Step forward, Ellis Short, the Texan billionaire president of US investment firm Lone Star Funds, who has owned the club outright since May 2009. Short cannot be accused of not putting his money where his mouth is, as by my reckoning he has injected well over £100 million into Sunderland. The accounts show that he has capitalised £67.5 million of loans (£48.5 million in 2009 and £19 million in 2010) and provided a further £28.4 million of unsecured, interest free loans with no set repayment date. That gives a total of £95.9 million of free funding, on top of the money that Short paid to acquire the club, which has not been publicly divulged, but is estimated to be in the region of £10-20 million, as well as clearing the debts of the previous owners, Drumaville Limited.

"Asamoah Gyan - from the Black Stars to the Black Cats"

There’s no doubt that Quinn has been very astute at finding investors. Initially, he helped put together the predominately Irish-based Drumaville consortium, which bought the club from former chairman, Bob Murray, in July 2006 and helped fund Sunderland’s successful promotion campaign. Then, just as the recession adversely impacted the (mainly property) businesses of the Irish investors, meaning that they were strapped for cash, he found and delivered Short to help complete his “vision”.

However, the club’s reliance on Short, who is now based in London, is equally obvious. The conversion of the majority of the owner’s loans into equity is a powerful gesture, meaning that there would be no debt issues if Short were to walk away. As Steve Walton explained, “The money is effectively there forever and can’t be withdrawn.” This benefactor model is not dissimilar from those operated by Sheikh Mansour at Manchester City and Roman Abramovich at Chelsea, albeit on an altogether different scale.

That man Walton again: “The continuing support of our owner puts the club in a secure position, giving us a positive platform to build on.” More prosaically, the accounts admit that the club is only deemed to be a going concern, due to the willingness of the “ultimate controlling party” (that would be Ellis Short) to “continue to support the operations of the group for the foreseeable future.” To cut a long story short (see what I did there?), Sunderland will be fine as long as the man from Texas keeps bankrolling the club, but if he were to leave, then all bets would be off.

The need for the owner’s backing is underlined by looking at the club’s cash flow statement. Over the last four years, the owners have had to provide over £100 million of loans to compensate for the big cash outflows before financing. This is quite interesting, as, when discussing the results, chief executive Walton was at pains to emphasise the importance of cash, as opposed to profit, implying that the cash flow figures would be much better, “There's a big disconnect between cash and profit. The transfer fees of many of our players appear in the last published accounts even though we paid out the cash for them some years ago. Businesses don't get into difficulties because they don't make profits; they get into trouble because they run out of cash, which is a really important distinction that has to be made.”

It’s difficult to disagree with that view, though I can’t help noticing that Sunderland’s cash outflow is actually worse than the reported losses, e.g. £39 million cash outflow last season compared to an accounting loss of £28 million. What Walton is really highlighting is that the cash looks fine … but only after Short signs a large cheque.

The question is how long will this go on? Steve Bruce, of all people, got to the heart of the issue, “Without the owner's huge investment we would be perennial strugglers. I'm sure he hasn't finished investing yet. At least I hope he hasn't. The owner has been very generous with his funding, but we can’t expect him to keep putting his hand in his pocket for another £30 million a year.”

So what exactly is Sunderland’s problem?

Well, it starts with the revenue. On the face of it, this is perfectly respectable at £65 million. Looking at the revenue for Premier League clubs in 2008/09, this would put Sunderland in a comfortable mid-table position, which is fine, but is not really in line with the club’s aspirations. There are many ways of looking at this. From a negative perspective, four of the eight clubs with revenue lower than Sunderland’s ended up being relegated in the following two seasons (Middlesbrough, WBA, Portsmouth and Hull City), but, on the other hand, Fulham managed to reach the final of the Europa League with turnover almost identical to that of the Black Cats.

The real issue for Sunderland is that it’s almost impossible for them to challenge the leading clubs in terms of revenue. For example, Manchester United’s revenue of £279 million is more than four times as large, while even Manchester City (£125 million) and Tottenham (£119 million) earn almost twice as much, following their growth in 2009/10. While Sunderland’s revenue also rose last season, theirs was a miniscule increase from £64.6 million to £65.4 million.

In fact, the last time that Sunderland enjoyed any meaningful revenue growth was solely due to their promotion to the Premier League in 2007/08, when there was a major step-up in income. Since then: nothing, nada, zilch. Although both gate receipts and commercial income rose in the first season back in the top tier, by far the main reason for the jump in revenue in 2008 was television, thanks to the money-spinning deal with Sky, which lead to media revenue soaring from £8 million to £36 million. This is still nowhere near as much as the leading clubs earn, due to the money those teams earn from the Champions League.

In fairness, although Sunderland are clearly reliant on TV income, they are not as hugely dependent on this revenue stream as some other clubs. In 2008/09, 54% of Sunderland’s total revenue was derived from television, while many others sourced more than 70% of their revenue from the small screen with Wigan Athletic at an astonishing 81%. That said, following last season’s decline in gate receipts and commercial income, Sunderland’s dependence on the TV drug is growing and now stands at an uneasy 59%.

However, every cloud has a silver lining and television was responsible for the only revenue growth in 2009/10, rising 11% from £35 million to £39 million. This was largely due to Sunderland finishing three places higher in the Premier League, leading to a larger merit payment with each place being worth an additional £800,000.

Fans don’t always understand how the Premier League TV revenue is distributed, so this is how it works. Much of it is shared out equally, namely 50% of the domestic rights and 100% of the overseas rights, but not all of the money is allocated in this manner. As we have seen, merit payments, accounting for 25% of the domestic rights, depend on a club’s final position. In addition, the remaining 25% of the domestic TV rights comes from the facility fee, which is based on how many times Sky broadcast a club’s matches live.

In the last two seasons Sunderland have been shown the contractual minimum of ten times, while the viewing public was afforded the pleasure of watching Manchester United the maximum 24 times. That can make a significant difference to a club’s revenue with United’s facility fee of £13 million being more than twice as much as Sunderland’s £6 million. This is a “hidden” way in which the top clubs benefit from the structure of the TV agreement.

Even so, Sunderland’s turnover is heavily influenced by the timing of broadcasting deals, with the significant increase in 2008 revenue being partly due to promotion and partly due to the new Sky agreement. Happily for the Black Cats, they can anticipate a similar boost to revenue in next year’s accounts, as the central payments from the latest three-year deal, which kicked off in the 2010/11 season, will climb by around £7-10 million, largely thanks to the steep increase in overseas rights.

"Craig Gordon - not all Scottish keepers are dodgy"

Although the parachute payments paid to clubs dropping out of the Premier league have been increased to £48 million (£16 million in each of the first two years, £8 million in each of years three and four), this would still represent a drastic reduction for Sunderland. They can expect around £48 million revenue from the Premier League this season, so they would have to manage a £32 million reduction in their revenue, which is a big ask to say the least and might place an intolerable burden on their owner.

Relegation can therefore have a very real impact with the fears being articulated by Steve Walton, “It’s particularly an issue at this club, because when we got relegated a number of years ago, the decision was made to take an axe not only to the team but also the whole business to try to get it into a better financial position, so 90 of about 300 staff were made redundant.” Before supporters get too nervous about what might happen if such a calamitous event were to come to pass, they should be re-assured by the actions already taken by Quinn and Walton, who have ensured that every player’s contract contains relegation clauses with wage cuts of around 40%. A couple of players would probably still have to be sold to balance the books, but this would be completely different from the fire sale that was required at Portsmouth.

Of course, the focus recently has been on Sunderland’s crowds, but the chairman’s criticism of stay-away fans looks a little over-done. Examining the facts from a purely objective basis, Sunderland’s average attendance of around 40,000 looks pretty damn good. It’s the seventh highest in the Premier League and was actually the 31st highest in Europe last season, ahead of such noted names as Fenerbahce, Sevilla, Athletic Bilbao, Porto, Bayer Leverkusen and Champions League semi-finalists Lyon. For a club that has not won a trophy for nearly 40 years, that’s an impressive demonstration of loyal support and to my mind the fans do not deserve these disparaging comments.

In a way, though, there is some logic to Quinn’s comments, as Sunderland only fill 83% of the 49,000 capacity of the Stadium of Light. The only other club with a similarly low level of usage last season was their neighbours Newcastle United, though this has risen to 90% since the Toon’s promotion to the Premier League. In addition, Sunderland’s average attendance has fallen this season, though not by as much as Quinn would have people believe, with a decrease of just 2.5% from 40,355 to 39,351.

Furthermore, the Black Cats are by no means alone in suffering a reduction, as all clubs have experienced the impact of the economic downturn, which has been felt particularly keenly in the north-east of England. Indeed, Steve Walton admitted that the club was facing “challenging economic times both nationally and regionally.”

Despite the investment in the spanking new stadium, the club’s gate receipts are not particularly high. Indeed, they actually fell last season from £14 million to £13 million. To place that into context, both Manchester United and Arsenal earn over £100 million a year from match day income. Now, gate receipts are not exactly the same as match day income, but looking at the elements included in Sunderland’s commercial revenue, very little could be justifiably re-allocated to increase the match day figure, so the point remains valid.

"Stéphane Sessègnon - new kid on the block"

Those clubs may be in a different “money” league to Sunderland, but a more reasonable comparison would be Newcastle United, who generated twice as much match day revenue as them at £29 million. Furthermore, the three clubs just below Sunderland in terms of attendance all earned considerably more from match day. The implication is that Sunderland’s pricing is lower than at other clubs, though it might also be that there is a far smaller proportion of premium pricing at the Stadium of Light. For example, Arsenal make 35% of their match day revenue from just 9,000 premium seats at the Emirates.

That may be why Sunderland have just announced some (modest) price rises. The cost of the cheapest adult season ticket will increase 5% from £380 to £400, though younger fans will be harder hit with the cost of a season ticket for under-16s rising 40% from £49 to £69. To be fair, Sunderland’s season ticket prices remain among the most competitive in the Premier League, but the timing seems a little bizarre, considering the desire to attract bigger crowds. In fact, these are only “early bird” prices to reward fans that renew their season tickets early and prices may yet rise further.

Nevertheless, the club does need to do something to grow its revenue, if it wishes to remain competitive in the upper echelons of the league, as Quinn outlined, “I believe we strike a good balance with our prices in terms of making paying to watch their team as affordable and convenient as possible for our fans and bringing in the revenue we need to help the club continue to make the progress we all want to see.”

"The Mighty Quinn"

However, the price increase is not going to have a massive impact on the club’s turnover. Nor would revenue be greatly boosted by the crowds reaching full capacity, as Quinn himself has admitted, “Our missing 10,000 fans cost us £1.8 million over the season, so a figure like that won’t make a difference in allowing us to compete.” At the same time, Quinn is sending out mixed messages on this subject, as he has also claimed that the missing fans will have an effect on the club’s finances, “If I don’t win them back, the club may have to downsize and cut its cloth differently. It’ll be difficult to follow up on the current investment and players may have to be sold.”

Leaving the finances aside, there are other (linked) reasons why Quinn has embarked on his campaign. First, he is remembering his own days as a player, when the crowd acted as the proverbial 12th man, “What I want from our fans is their atmospheric input. That’s what makes the place special. It is those fans being inside the ground and making it a hostile place for visiting sides that makes the difference.”

This is part of the promise that he made to Short when he persuaded him to invest so much into the club, “I told Ellis that with a base of 44,000 we could build on that and take on the bigger boys – not with similar investment to the very biggest clubs, but with raw passion and emotion. It adds a different component and makes us a big club. It’s what makes Sunderland special and difficult to beat. That was my vision, that’s what I put to Ellis and he bought into that.” There’s a palpable sense of frustration here that while the American has been true to his word, Quinn feels that the Sunderland public (and by extension the chairman) has not delivered its end of the bargain.

"Captain Cattermole"

Steve Walton, the chief executive, has adopted a more measured stance, “Our gates are marginally down, which to my mind is due to the economic climate we’re all currently operating in.” In the past, he has stressed that there are other aspects to the club’s business: “What everyone sees is the stadium over there, the 40,000 to 45,000 people who will be turning up to watch the Manchester United game – they think that’s the be-all and end-all of a football club.”

Another avenue for Sunderland to potentially increase it revenue is the commercial operation. Although this appears reasonable for a club of Sunderland’s size at £14 million, there is scope for future growth, especially if we consider that it actually fell £2 million last year with all three areas registering decreases: sponsorship and royalties £8.2 million to £7.9 million; conferences and catering £4.9 million to £3.8 million; and retail £2.3 million to £1.9 million.

In fact, Sunderland were one of only two Premier League clubs whose shirt sponsorship decreased this season (Newcastle were the other one), as the new two-year deal with online gaming company Tombola Sports is worth little more than £1 million a year. OK, you might not expect the deal to be at the same level as the £20 million received by Manchester United and Liverpool, but surely the £2.5 million earned by Everton and Newcastle should be attainable.

Part of the problem could be the club’s enthusiasm for local companies (Vaux Breweries and Sunderland car dealership Reg Vardy have been sponsors in the past), so it might be an idea to start looking further afield. Even the deal with the Irish firm Boylesports was worth up to £12 million over four years. That is one of the reasons that the club has brought in ex-foreign secretary, David Milliband, as a non-executive director in the hope that he can raise Sunderland’s profile on the international stage and leverage his overseas network to increase income. We shall see. At least it gave Steve Bruce an opportunity to stake an early claim for lamest joke of the year, “I did ask for a left winger, but I didn’t expect this.”

Of course, the easiest way for Sunderland to improve their financials would be to reduce wages. At £54 million, these now stand at 82% of turnover, which is one of the highest ratios in the Premier League, having rocketed up from a respectable 58% just two years ago. Only four teams now have worse wages to turnover ratios, while Sunderland’s figure is exactly the same as big-spending Chelsea. To get back to UEFA’s recommended maximum limit of 70% would mean increasing revenue by £11 million or cutting wages by £8 million.

As we have seen, revenue growth has proved difficult for Sunderland, but the trouble is that if the club were to reduce its wage bill, this would almost certainly make the team less competitive on the pitch. To be honest, it’s not as if wages of £54 million are tremendously exorbitant in the Premier League. In fact, this payroll places Sunderland tenth in the wages league. Given the very strong correlation between wages and performance, this would suggest that Sunderland should be challenging for a place in the top ten, but anything more should be considered as a bonus. Certainly, five clubs have wage bills twice as high as Sunderland’s, which is a major competitive advantage for them.

This may explain why Quinn last year called on the Premier League to impose a wage cap, so that the ever increasing spending on player wages could be restrained. It looks like the Sunderland directors are already following this noble principle, as payments to directors fell by £0.8 million to £1.1 million last season – in marked contrast to the trend at most other clubs.

In fact, Sunderland are keeping a close eye on the player wages too. Steve Walton has promised a reduction in the wages to turnover ratio, “We’ve received some criticism for the figure being above 80%, but that certainly won’t be the case next time”, while manager Steve Bruce was singing from the same song sheet, “Part of the overall strategy is to ensure that we don’t carry surplus players. There would be a significant saving in wages if we were able to move on a number or players.” There were signs of this strategy being put into practice in the last transfer window, when the likes of Andy Reid (Blackpool) and Paolo da Silva (Real Zaragoza) were sold for nominal sums, while David Healey (Rangers) and Matthew Kilgallon (Doncaster) were loaned out.

The other major cost booked by football clubs is the amortisation of transfer fees, which in the case of Sunderland has shot up from £5 million in 2007 to £26 million last year. Walton helpfully clarified this accounting treatment: “The outlay to acquire a player is spread each year across the term of the player's contract, after which it has zero value in the club's accounts. For example, a player purchased for £4 million on a four-year contract would be recorded in the accounts as costing £1 million per year, even though the club's may have paid all the £4 million in one amount on signing.”

Spot on, but he then added that the club’s losses are a little misleading, as “most of that is the result of amortisation of players.” Well, yes, but this is a fairly standard activity for football clubs, so it’s hardly out of the ordinary. Besides, as we saw earlier, Sunderland’s cash outflows are even worse, so his own explanation could be considered a touch disingenuous.

The point is that higher amortisation implies a high transfer spend and this is indeed the case. Backed by their owners, Sunderland have been one of the biggest spenders in the transfer market in the last few years. Since being promoted in 2007, they have spent around £125 million on bringing new players to the club, including Kenwyne Jones, Anton Ferdinand, Steed Malbranque, El Hadji Diouf and Lee Cattermole, though they have recouped £60 million of that in sales.

In that period, they have broken their own transfer record on no fewer than three occasions, paying £9 million for goalkeeper Craig Gordon, £10 million for the prolific striker Darren Bent and £13 million for Ghana’s Asamoah Gyan. On the other side of the coin, they have now also started making good money from player sales, notably selling Bent to Aston Villa for an initial fee of £18 million (potentially rising to £24 million) and Kenwyne Jones to Stoke City for £8 million.

With all this expenditure on buying new players, you would expect a loss-making club like Sunderland to carry a lot of debt, but this has been limited by Ellis Short’s willingness to convert his loans into equity. However, this does not mean that there is no debt at all. The accounts actually show net debt of £66 million, including external debt of £44 million, comprising a £10 million overdraft and a £35 million bank loan, which is secured on the stadium, repayable over three years and bears interest at LIBOR plus 3%.

When the books were closed, the debt also included the £22 million loan that Short made last year, though he made another £6 million loan in September 2010. Presumably, if he follows his earlier precedents, at some stage these loans will also be converted into capital, so this is likely to be a transitory balance. As Quinn so rightly said, “We’re in a fortunate position, as Ellis funds, but he doesn’t place the burden of that funding on the club’s books.” There’s also good news on the transfer front, as there is only a net payable of £5 million fees to other clubs.

In fact, this is a fairly strong balance sheet for a football club with net assets of £62 million, though if fixed assets are excluded, there are net current liabilities of £53 million. The stadium is valued at £91 million, while the playing squad is included in the accounts at £55 million, even though the resale value of the players is clearly higher in the real world. For example, a homegrown player like Jordan Henderson has zero value in the accounts, but a team like Manchester City could easily pay £15-20 million for him.

So what of the future? Steve Walton, for one, is full of confidence, “We are going to see a journey where we’ve peaked in terms of the losses and are going forward reducing that loss each year.” Actually, he’s got a point. Next year’s financials should show a significant improvement. First, there will be record profits on player sales, largely thanks to Bent and Jones leaving. Then, the TV deal could bring in another £10 million, though this is partly dependent on where Sunderland finish in the league. Wages may well also reduce after the clear out of a number of fringe players.

"Jordan Henderson - an asset in both senses"

Going forward, match day income should rise as a result of the price increases, while the commercial operation has to improve. Stadium naming rights are always a possibility, but many clubs have found this easier said than done, especially as the best time to do this is when moving to a new ground. Some clubs, especially those on the continent, adopt a policy of boosting their financials by making regular profits on player sales, which might well be appropriate at Sunderland, given the academy’s record of producing talent.

Qualifying for Europe would also help financially, though Birmingham’s surprising win in the Carling Cup may have made that beyond reach this season. Fans should also note that there is an enormous difference between the Champions League and Europa League in terms of payments. Last season, the four English teams in the Champions League received £29 million on average in prize/TV money, while Fulham’s run to the final of the Europa League only earned them £8 million.

There is also the spectre of UEFA’s Financial Fair Play regulations facing clubs like Sunderland. According to Walton, these rules represent a real challenge to “clubs like ourselves that are trying to make a step change.” In essence, UEFA will not allow clubs to compete in European competitions unless they live within their means, which could be tricky for Sunderland, as they have been supported by their “sugar daddy” for so long.

"Elmohamady - walk like an Egyptian"

It would be a bitter pill to swallow if Sunderland finally qualified for Europe, but were denied access on financial grounds. The first season that UEFA will start monitoring clubs is 2013/14, but this will take into account the losses made in the two preceding years, namely 2011/12 and 2012/13, so the accounts need to improve pretty quickly, which may be another reason for the desire to increase gate receipts.

However, all is not lost, as they don’t need to be absolutely perfect by then, because wealthy owners will be allowed to absorb aggregate losses (so-called “acceptable deviations”) of €45 million (£39 million), initially over two years and then over a three-year monitoring period, as long as they are willing to cover the deficit by making equity contributions.

Clearly, this strategy requires a wealthy owner and there are some questions over Ellis Short’s commitment to the club. Quinn has spoken of the Texan’s “emotional attachment” to Sunderland, while others have described Short as a hard-headed businessman, who will want a return on his considerable investment. To achieve that, the club needs to progress on the pitch, as this is the key to financial success. As Steve Bruce said, “Fair play to the owner. There's been a huge investment in the club, not just in my time here, but over the last three years. He's transformed it and it's time we paid him back.”

The benefactor model can work well, but there are always two sides to the story. While Short remains at the club and is happy to cover losses, everything is fine, but there is always the nagging concern that he will leave for whatever reason, which can leave a club struggling. Given the steps already taken by Sunderland’s management, this would not be life threatening for the club, but it would undoubtedly hurt its prospects.

"Ellis Short - the man with the money"

It would also be bad news if Niall Quinn were to become so disillusioned over the crowd issue that he decided to exit stage left. He has worked tirelessly to improve the status of the club and has achieved a great deal: securing investment, supporting his managers and establishing a special rapport with the fans, which is largely unshaken, even after his recent ill-advised words.

Despite the recent disappointing results, there is a prevailing sense of optimism at the club, which has even affected the chief executive: “We never want to dream too much, because we’ve had many false dawns. Well, I think it’s time to start dreaming.” That might sound overly positive, but the fans can look forward to an exciting end to the season, as Sunderland have a relatively easy run-in and many key players should return from injury, so there is still much to play for. On the other hand, pressure will surely intensify on manager Steve Bruce if he does not deliver a good return on Ellis Short’s investment, notwithstanding his new four-year contract.