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Jumat, 14 Januari 2011

Birmingham City Blues


The January transfer window has been a bit of a damp squib to date, with the exception of Manchester City’s big money purchase of prolific Bosnian striker Edin Dzeko, but rumours of possible signings abound. Perhaps surprisingly, one club that has featured prominently in the feverish press speculation is Birmingham City, who have been linked with a series of attacking players in an attempt to resolve their goal scoring problems, including Kenny Miller and Robbie Keane, and have signed David Bentley on loan.

The reason for Birmingham’s activity in the transfer market is clear, as they are currently languishing in 15th position in the Premier League (albeit with a game in hand), a single point ahead of the relegation places. Even though the Blues have proved their usual obdurate selves defensively, particularly at St. Andrews, they have only won four times with their points tally being damaged by an unusually high number of draws (ten).

Realistically, the fans’ hopes should not be overly high, as Birmingham have only won one major trophy, back in 1963 when they beat local rivals Aston Villa 3-1 on aggregate in the League Cup, though they have played in the top tier of English football for the majority of their history. Nevertheless, the team achieved a highly creditable ninth place finish last season, which was particularly praiseworthy, given that this came immediately after being promoted from the Championship.

Great stuff, but this was always likely to be a hard act to follow and, sure enough, Birmingham are suffering from a classic case of second season syndrome, whereby a promoted team that exceeds expectations invariably struggles the following year.

"Alex McLeish - Big Eck"

In fairness, the club’s prospects have been hurt by the long-term absence of James McFadden, exacerbated by the failure in the summer to secure manager Alex McLeish’s preferred striking targets, including Bobby Zamora, Fabrizio Miccoli and Moussa Dembele. As an alternative, he has had to make do with beanpole Serbian forward Nikola Zigic and Chilean winger Jean Beausejour, supported by loan signings Matt Derbyshire and Aleksandr Hleb, and none of these players has had a meaningful impact on the scoring charts.

So they need to do something if they want to ensure survival in the Premier League. When Carson Yeung’s investment vehicle Grandtop International Holdings Limited took over the club in October 2009, it made it very clear that this was the cornerstone of their strategy, “Our aim is to work hard to secure our position in the Premier League, not only this year, but for many years to come.” Nothing wrong with that, of course, as this is the strategy of the majority of clubs in the Premier League, because the financial implications of relegation are too hideous to consider. When Birmingham were relegated in 2006, they warned, “A prolonged absence from the Premier League will force the club to make wide-ranging economies.”

This explains the club’s apparent willingness to reinforce its squad, though there is a degree of confusion over just how much money is available for new players. Alex McLeish first claimed, “We are not in a position to spend at the moment. We are looking at the loan situation and if push comes to shove then we will see.” However, this reticence was later clarified by Peter Pannu, the club’s vice-chairman, “We will consider each request on a need to buy basis, and need to play basis and finally on a need to strengthen the team basis and not on a buy for the sake of buying basis.”

"David Bentley - dreaming of a new start"

It’s a real dilemma for Birmingham: in the immortal words of Richard Keys, do they stick or twist? If they don’t improve the squad, they run the risk of relegation and all that entails, but, on the other hand, if they do splash the cash, they will place an additional financial burden on the club’s threadbare financial resources. Last year McLeish explained his ethos, “There will be money to spend, but there has got to be prudence.” Of course, if the money spent were to result in the club maintaining its place in the Premier League, it would certainly recoup its investment, but this still represents a gamble.

This is especially so in the case of the Blues, as highlighted by the latest accounts for Birmingham City PLC, which were released last week and included the dreaded “Emphasis of Matter” warning, which stated, “These conditions indicate the existence of a material uncertainty which may cast significant doubt about the Group’s ability to continue as a going concern.” Although some have under-played the significance of this statement, suggesting that it’s merely a case of accountants covering their backsides, the reality is that auditors do not make such remarks lightly, as supporters of Liverpool and Hull City would appreciate. In simple terms, there is a risk that Birmingham City will be unable to pay its bills and could even go bust.

The same accounts make it crystal clear that the club “is reliant on continued funding from Carson Yeung.” Of course, Birmingham are by no means the only club that is dependent on the support of a wealthy benefactor, but the comments on future trading and liquidity emphasise the hand-to-mouth nature of the club’s existence, as “the forecasts show that the Group needs funding of around £7.5 million from its parent company in the short term in order … to continue to operate within its agreed bank facilities.” Even that hinges on finishing in an unspecified position in the Premier League with a further £3 million required if the club avoids going down. There is no mention of what happens in the worst-case scenario of relegation, but we can make a pretty good guess, as the club posted a £19 million loss the last time this happened.

"Hleb - known to Arsenal fans as Dribbly McNoscore"

Even more worrying is the fact that the parent company, Birmingham International Holdings Limited (BIH), does not appear to have this funding readily available, but needs to organise a placing of shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange “to provide general working capital and financial support.” Only £7.5 million is fully underwritten (i.e. guaranteed), leaving a further £17.5 million to be raised on a “best efforts” basis. That’s not particularly comforting, especially as the accounts state that the net proceeds “are expected to be transferred by the end of November 2010”, but there has been no further press release from BIH regarding the results of the placing. Instead, the company’s shares were suspended on 5 January, “pending the release of an announcement regarding proposed very substantial acquisition.”

To a certain extent, the warning in the football club accounts is old news for Blues fans, as the BIH accounts published last October contained exactly the same “going concern” statement, while also noting that the Group’s current liabilities exceeded its current assets by around £28 million (depending on exchange rate with Hong Kong Dollar), after incurring a loss of £35 million, though much of this was due to a paper loss from writing-off goodwill arising on the acquisition of the football club. Clearly, the funds from the proposed share placing will be used to shore up the balance sheet, but that means that only limited funds will be available for transfers or stadium development.

At the time, Peter Pannu eased the fans’ fears, “The accounts are those of the holding company and has nothing to do with BCFC, which in the last year had shown profits”, but this is palpable nonsense. Birmingham City Football Club PLC is the only trading subsidiary of Birmingham City PLC, which is in turn wholly owned by Birmingham International Holdings Limited (formerly Grandtop International Holdings Limited). If the chain of ownership is not enough to convince, try this for size: 99.6% of BIH’s turnover comes from the football club.

All of this has cast significant doubt over the viability of the club’s holding company, which is crucial, as the football club is reliant on its support. Birmingham City’s June 2010 balance sheet has net current liabilities of £27 million, while net debt is £14 million. Almost all of this has arisen in the last year, very largely comprising a £12 million loan (bearing 5% interest) from Carson Yeung, though he has promised not to seek repayment in less than 12 months. Since the books were closed, he has advanced a further £2.8 million, so the total owed now stands at £14.8 million. The club also has £2 million of bank loans and a £2 million overdraft, both of which are secured on the club’s land and buildings, offset by £1 million of cash.

So, the club is no longer debt-free, as it had been during the reign of previous owners David Sullivan and David Gold, thanks to their frugal approach. Of course, Birmingham’s debts are not huge compared to other clubs, something that Pannu was keen to announce, boasting that they were “nowhere near the level of some major Premier League clubs and some of the powerhouses in Spain and Europe.” That’s true, even though his grasp of European geography seems rather loose, but the revenue generated by those clubs is considerably higher.

In fact, Birmingham’s debt is effectively higher, as they also owe £13 million to other football clubs for transfer fees, of which £8 million is due in the next financial year. Stage payments of transfers is a fairly common practice, but this is quite a high sum for a club of Birmingham’s size and it has been increasing over the past few years.

They also potentially owe the taxman £5 million on image rights if Her Majesty’s Revenue and Customs win a court case against a number of football clubs. Similarly, the club has provided around £1 million for a VAT dispute.

However, the majority of the debt has come from Birmingham’s recent largesse in the transfer market. People might be taken aback by the fact that Birmingham’s net spend of £36 million over the last two seasons is the third highest in the Premier League, only behind Manchester City and Chelsea. In a way, this is perfectly understandable, as a team promoted from the Championship has to improve their squad to be competitive in a higher division, but it’s still a surprising statistic.

Although Carson Yeung has not quite delivered on his initial pledge to spend £80 million on new players (“£40 million in the January transfer window is my commitment to the Birmingham fans. And next season we put another £40 million into the team.”), this still represents a significant outlay. Of course, boasting about such spending power did not appear to be a wise move from a negotiating perspective and Yeung has since admitted, “In hindsight, I can see that wasn’t the best thing to do. We learned one lesson – that suddenly prices shot up.” Well, they would do, if you show your hand so blatantly, e.g. the price of Roman Pavlyuchenko jumped 50% overnight.

Looking at Birmingham City’s profit trend, we can see why Yeung’s loan was so important in funding the transfer spend. Even though the club was one of a select few to make a profit last season, it was extremely small at £0.1 million, necessitating cash injections. Let’s be very clear about this: Birmingham City have been run very well from a financial point of view, reporting profits in six of the last eight years, but they simply don’t produce enough cash to justify their recent activity in the transfer market.

At its simplest, Birmingham are profitable in those seasons when they play in the Premier League, but make a loss if they drop down to the Championship. In 2008/09, the club took the calculated gamble of retaining most of its players, which paid off in the sense that Birmingham came back up at the first time of asking, but this did produce a hefty £19 million loss. This was in contrast to the approach they took after relegation a couple of seasons before, when they “took immediate action to alleviate the financial implications” by releasing 13 first team squad players in order to cut the wage bill and realise some profit on player sales (mainly Emile Heskey and Jermaine Pennant to Liverpool), though they still had the “highest investment in the division.”

I should note at this stage that the last accounts only cover ten months, as the accounting close was changed from 31 August to 30 June, in order to be in line with the parent company BIH. This probably has limited impact on the revenue figures, as the TV money from the Premier League is distributed during the football season, while matches are not played in July and August. However, costs are booked evenly throughout the year, so a full year’s costs would have been higher than reported.

Despite turnover more than doubling on Birmingham’s return to the top tier from £28 million to £56 million, this is still relatively low for clubs in the Premier League. Even though it’s a different year, if we take the Money League for 2008/09 as a comparison, Birmingham would have been in 15th position or about the same level as Stoke City. To place that into context, Manchester United’s revenue is nearly five times as much, while Aston Villa earn 50% more.

The graph of the revenue mix vividly highlights Birmingham’s challenge with almost all of their income (£42 million) being derived from television, leaving relatively little from the other revenue streams with £7 million coming from each of match day and commercial. The difference between TV revenue in the Premier League and the Championship is by far the biggest swing factor in each year’s revenue. In fact, it has become increasingly important over the years. Note that match day revenue in the earlier years was over-stated in the accounts, as it included “FA and League distributions.”

In fact, 74% of Birmingham’s total income comes from TV, which is only behind Wigan in terms of Premier League clubs’ dependency on the small screen, even though their £42 million is nowhere near as much as the leading clubs earn, mainly due to the money those teams earn from the Champions League. Like others, Birmingham have enormously benefited from the Sky revolution with £41 million of their £42 million broadcasting income emanating from Murdoch’s empire.

The distribution of the Premier League TV revenue is therefore of particular interest to a club like Birmingham. Much of it is shared out equally, namely 50% of the domestic rights and 100% of the overseas rights, but not all of the money is allocated in this manner. Merit payments account for 25% of the domestic rights with each place in the final league table being worth around £800,000, which we have already seen is important for Birmingham’s cash flow. In addition, the remaining 25% of the domestic TV rights comes from the facility fee, which is based on how many times Sky broadcast a club’s matches live. Last season Birmingham were shown eleven times, while the viewing public was treated to Manchester United the maximum 24 times.

As such, Birmingham’s turnover is heavily influenced by the timing of broadcasting deals, with the significant increase in 2008 revenue being partly due to promotion and partly due to the new Sky agreement. Happily for the Blues, they can anticipate a similar boost to revenue in next year’s accounts, as the central payments from the latest three-year deal, which kicked off in the 2010/11 season, will climb by around £7-10 million, largely thanks to the steep increase in overseas rights.

Although the parachute payments paid to clubs dropping out of the Premier league have been increased to £48 million (£16 million in each of the first two years, £8 million in each of years three and four), this would still represent a drastic reduction for Birmingham. They can expect around £48 million revenue from the Premier League this season, so they would have to manage a £32 million reduction in their revenue, which is a big ask to say the least.

The accounts proudly announce that match day revenue increased by £2 million from £5 million to £7 million, though this is partly due to promotion. In a way, this was still impressive, as season ticket prices were reduced by 10%, but this amount is still insignificant compared to most other clubs. If you consider that clubs like Manchester United and Arsenal collect over £100 million of match day revenue, it’s hardly a level playing field. In fact, only three clubs have lower gate receipts: Blackburn Rovers, Bolton Wanderers and WBA.

This is pretty much in line with crowd levels, as Birmingham’s average attendances rising of 25,000 (up from 19,000) were the 16th highest in England last season, partly because only 84% of St. Andrews’ 30,000 capacity is being filled. In fairness, the West Midlands has been stricken by severe unemployment, with many manufacturing plants (notably Longbridge) being closed down and other workers having their hours reduced.

"Big Ben Foster"

The club has invested some money into the stadium in the past, with the accounts specifically mentioning £1 million on refurbishing the main stand in 2008 and £2 million on the ground and training facilities in 2007, but the 2004 proposal to build a 55,000 capacity City of Birmingham Stadium has been put on hold, after the government refused to issue a licence for a super casino.

If the Blues are adversely impacted by low match day revenue, the picture is even worse when it comes to commercial income with only WBA earning less than Birmingham’s £7 million. Again, the “big boys” generate substantially more revenue here with Manchester United and Liverpool receiving ten times as much at around £70 million. Note that the £10 million commercial revenue reported in 2008 was artificially inflated by the £2.5 million compensation received for former manager Steve Bruce joining Wigan.

The shirt sponsorship deal with F&C Investments is worth just £650,000 a season, which compares very unfavourably with the £20 million that Standard Chartered pay Liverpool. In fact, only Blackpool’s deal with the inappropriately named Wonga is lower in the Premier League.

As of this season, the club has signed a five-year deal worth £7 million with Chinese sportswear manufacture Xtep to provide kit, replacing the three-year deal with Umbro. Peter Pannu was proud of this off-pitch signing, “Not only is it a superb deal commercially, being the biggest sponsorship the club has acquired, but also on a brand level, as it promotes the club internationally.”

"Karren Brady - the first lady of football"

This is part of the owners’ long-term strategy, which was outlined after the acquisition, “We believe that there is a major opportunity to build BCFC’s fan base in China and to generate new sources of revenue for the club.” Former chief executive Karren Brady gushed, “I can foresee links with the powerhouse Chinese economy”; while one BIH’s legal advisors went even further, “With a population of 1.3 billion in China, the prospects are unlimited.”

Stirring stuff, but is it really credible? Sure, football is widely followed in China with Premier league matches broadcast on free-to-air state channel Guandong TV, but even franchises like Manchester United have struggled to make any tangible impact there. Indeed, only a tiny percentage of United’s revenue comes from outside the UK. Of course, Yeung has many more local connections, which he believes will lead to Birmingham being “more popular than Manchester United and Chelsea”, but there’s been little evidence of that so far, beyond a pre-season tour. It’s obviously early days in the relationship, but to break through in a major market like China is likely to require the kind of funds that Birmingham do not appear to possess.

Where Birmingham can be justifiably lauded is their cost control. In five years, total expenses have only grown from £45 million in 2005 to £55 million last year, though we should probably pro-rate 2010, as those accounts only cover ten months. If we do that, we get £65 million, which gives a growth of 44%, which is not too bad. As a comparison, Bolton, a club with similar revenue (£56 million), has seen cost growth of 95% in the same period.

Using the same pro-rata technique, the annual wage bill is £44 million, which is one of the lowest in the Premier League at 15th. This means that Birmingham significantly outperformed their expected league position based on wages when they finished 9th. To place their wage bill into context, teams like Aston Villa and West Ham pay 50% more.

This is an area that the board takes very seriously, indeed it is listed as the club’s principal risk in the accounts, “The acquisition of players and their related payroll costs are deemed the core activity risk and, whilst assisting the manager in improving the playing squad, the Board is mindful of the pitfalls that are inherent in this area of the business. The aim is therefore to manage these costs whilst being as competitive as possible within the club’s financial constraints.”

In 2007 wages were cut following relegation, but this was not repeated in 2009 when the club was again demoted, leading to an unsustainable wages to turnover ratio of 100%. This was lowered to 78% last season, due the rise in turnover following the return to the Premier League, but this is still a little on the high side. To be fair, this could fall to UEFA’s recommended maximum limit of 70% with a £7 million increase in revenue, which is entirely possible following the new Sky contract.

The question is what would happen if Birmingham were to be relegated? Yeung has spoken in the past of maintaining a “magic formula of 60-70%” and “a fall-back option in case you are not in the Premiership”, which implies that there would be a sale of players in this eventuality, unless the players’ contracts include clauses reducing salaries in the Championship.

Similar to wages, player amortisation of £12 million is far behind most of Birmingham’s Premier League rivals, who are still “paying” for the transfer excesses of previous years. Amortisation is an “accounting” expense, which occurs as the result of transfer purchases. When a player is bought, the cost is capitalised as an intangible fixed asset and amortised (written-off) over the length of his contract. This means that the costs of buying a player are not fully reflected in the books in the year of purchase, but over time the amortisation costs can have a real impact on the profit and loss account, e.g. Manchester City’s annual amortisation is an astonishing £71 million. Again, for Birmingham, this expense tends to rise and fall, depending on whether the club is in the Premier League or Championship.

The impact that the new owners have had on the club’s transfer policy can be seen by looking at the net spend over the last decade. During the last eight years of the Sullivan and Gold era, this amounted to £41 million, but this has almost been matched with £36 million in the two years under Yeung. OK, a couple of the buys in 2009 took place when the “two Davids” still had their hands on the tiller, but the point largely remains valid.

Many of the purchases, such as defenders Roger Johnson, Scott Dann and Craig Gardner have proved quite astute, while the club has also made good use of the loan system over the years, most notably with goalkeeper Joe Hart from Manchester City last season, but also the likes of Sebastian Larsson, Fabrice Muamba and Nicklas Bendtner from Arsenal.

This is an example of the thrifty stance adopted by the previous owners, Sullivan and Gold, who appear to have provoked contrary reactions in most supporters. On the one hand, they rescued the club from receivership in 1993 when they bought it for £700,000 and they ran the finances in a sensible manner, generating profits in many years, which is a rare feat in the pressurised world of football. On the other hand, they were criticised for milking the fans and not investing more of their own money, leading to two relegations in four years, which many felt could have been avoided.

Indeed, the former regime’s reputation for financial competence has taken a few hits in recent years. In March 2010, Sullivan himself declared, “Last summer we knew the club had a financial problem, as we publicly stated we loaned it £5 million to pay the deposits on two new players, because there was no money to do that.” In the same interview, when confronted with Birmingham’s £19 million loss in 2009, he admitted, “I can’t see where this loss has come from”, even though he had sanctioned the policy of retaining the Premier League squad in the Championship – which, admittedly, was vindicated when promotion was secured.

"Gold and Sullivan - the dynamic duo"

Then, there’s the small matter of a few legal difficulties, including a tribunal finding against the club in 2007 over the issue of reclaiming VAT on agents’ fees, and Sullivan and Karren Brady being arrested the following year on suspicion of conspiracy to defraud and false accounting (though no charges ensued).

While these incidents may have raised supporters’ eyebrows, they were more angered about the size of Brady’s pay-off, when the club was sold. According to the circular sent to Birmingham City shareholders, this amounted to a staggering £959,000, comprising 12 months’ notice £179,000; once-off bonus on company sale £520,000; and a bonus for each season played in the Premier League, starting 2009/10 £260,000.

Indeed, Yeung sued the former owners, as he believed that they had taken too many management fees out of the club, and even though they ultimately dropped the lawsuit, the 2010 accounts did note that the club recovered a total of £2.65 million “relating to management charges incorrectly invoiced to the club in previous years.”

Of course, the old saying caveat emptor springs to mind and it is fairly obvious that Yeung’s due diligence could have been better, especially as this was his second bite of the cherry, having failed to raise sufficient funds in his collapsed takeover bid of 2007, when he had to settle for a 29.9% stake instead. Despite this inside track, Yeung surely over-paid when he finally bought the club in late 2009 for £81.5 million, which was £17.5 million more than Randy Lerner paid for Aston Villa and £58.5 million more than Venky’s paid for Blackburn Rovers (though in both those cases, the new proprietors took on more debt).

"McFadden - absence makes the heart grow fonder"

In this case, Sullivan was right on the money, “He merely asked us about ten questions and failed to bring in accountants or auditors. It’s a bit like me buying a house and failing to conduct a survey and then moaning when the damn thing collapses.”

A similar lack of attention to detail was exposed when Yeung’s company lost a court case to stockbroker Seymour Pierce, who had sued the club for £2.2 million of unpaid fees relating to advice provided in the initial takeover bid, apparently because they had failed to submit three months’ written notice. At one stage, there was talk of this case causing the owners to lose control of the club, which may have been an improbable scenario, but it did raise questions over the strength of their financial backing.

As Seymour Pierce’s lawyer said, “Any reputable business would not choose to be in contempt of a British high court. If they are well funded and they are as substantial as they have told people, they would easily be able to fund the fee and then try to get leave to appeal the judgment.”

There has always been a dichotomy at the heart of Birmingham’s new owners: plenty of bullish talk about money being made available for new players, even though the holding company appears to have little financial substance. Indeed, Grandtop made significant losses in the four years prior to the acquisition and required a £57 million bridging loan to fund the takeover, which was only repaid after a share issue. This was a sign of things to come, as the current working capital issues are once again being addressed via another share placing.

"Nikola Zigic - more bang for your buck?"

If that’s not bad enough, there is also confusion over the identity of the real owner of the football club with some questioning Carson Yeung’s role, leading to a rebuttal by Peter Pannu, “He is not a front man, he is the main man”, though even he admitted, “I can understand why people have made assumptions. The legal documents are very complex and difficult to explain.”

That’s certainly true, but the latest placing document clearly identifies the anticipated dilution of Yeung’s stake that would result from this process. He currently holds 18.54% (in his name 5.82%, wholly owned Great Luck Management Limited 12.72%), which would fall to 16.25% after completion of the fully underwritten element and 12.47% if the maximum number of “best effort” shares are placed.

Apart from demonstrating the lack of confidence in BIH, given that less than 25% is underwritten, this share placing raises a couple of important questions: (a) If Yeung has so much money, why is he prepared to let his stake be diluted, especially as the price is half of what he previously paid? (b) How can he still be the “main man”, when he will own less than an eighth of the company?

In fairness, he would still be the major shareholder, if not the majority shareholder, and it is possible that other large shareholders are close business associates, who are happy to see him to lead the organisation. That said, he sure has come a long way since the days he ran a chain of hair salons, before apparently making money from the ubiquitous “property development” and becoming chairman of Hong Kong Rangers football club.

"The focus of Roger Johnson"

The company’s share placings have been under-written by Kingston Securities, a Hong Kong brokerage owned by Pollyanna Chu, chief executive of the Golden Resorts casino hotels company in Macau and reputedly one of the wealthiest women in Hong Kong. There are suspicions that she is the true power behind the throne, with some believing that it is only a question of time before she shows her hand, especially with BIH’s continual financial headaches, but Pannu has denied her involvement. Such a change might be welcomed by Blues fans, though it could be a case of jumping out of the frying pan into the fire, as she has a somewhat controversial past, having been investigated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for “unauthorised and improper trading activities.”

There have been a number of bizarre potential acquisitions announced by BIH, including Peace International Creation Limited (aviation), Diligent King Investments Limited (telecoms) and Good Partners Group Limited (property), though none of these appear to have been completed. Again, it makes you wonder what are the attractions of these unknown companies, when there many businesses around that would be far less speculative investments. As Spandau Ballet once sung, “Questions, questions/Give me no answers.”

In fairness to Carson Yeung, he has so far delivered on a number of promises: the money was found to purchase the club, the bridging loan was repaid and money has been provided to fund transfers (albeit not to the levels initially pledged). That said, the lack of transparency must be a concern for Birmingham City fans, not helped by the club’s parent company being incorporated in the Cayman Islands, an offshore tax haven. The Premier League have been satisfied to date, but their tests only require a guarantee that the club is funded until the end of the season and is not designed to look at long-term solvency.

"Calling Cameron Jerome"

Push will come to shove soon enough, as Birmingham’s ageing squad will need to be rejuvenated and that will require a fair bit of cash. The concern is that the complicated structure is acting as the proverbial smoke and mirrors to disguise fundamental financial weaknesses, while the hope is that the club do indeed manage to break into the lucrative Chinese market and reap the benefits. We shall see.

Encouragingly, Peter Pannu recently stated that Birmingham had to be “financially prudent” and could not be run on a “benefactor’s model” otherwise they would end up like Portsmouth, but he also said that Yeung was not going to “turn off the taps.” It’s a delicate balance that affects all clubs, but many of them do not suffer from the Blues’ Byzantine ownership structure.

In many ways, Birmingham City is an admirable club with solid, down-to-earth principles. They have a small budget, but have continued to punch well above their weight, earning the respect of the Premier League. Much of this is due to a fiercely loyal support that deserves more clarity from the club’s owners. As Peter Pannu said, when talking about the previous administration, “The fans would like to see the lifting of the corporate veil and their club run in a responsible and open way.” I couldn’t have put it any better myself.

Kamis, 08 Juli 2010

Fortune's Always Hiding At West Ham


While the World Cup continues to thrill all and sundry (with the notable exception of the lugubrious TV pundits), the new club football season looms on the horizon, which means much transfer activity and even more speculation. One thing that has caught my eye is the goings on at West Ham. They have already signed midfielder Thomas Hitzlsperger, appropriately nicknamed “the hammer”, on a free transfer, indicating that the German would be “the first of many signings this summer.” Last week, they apparently made a £12 million bid for Brazilian “wonder kid” Neymar, while they have also been linked with the likes of Yakubu, Joe Cole and those ageing superstars, Thierry Henry and David Beckham.

Although this may seem foolhardy, it is certainly a clear statement of intent from West Ham’s new owners, David Sullivan and David Gold, who acquired 50% of the club in January for £52.5 million, shrewdly paying a little over half of what they received when they sold Birmingham City to Hong Kong businessman Carson Yeung. Although the Icelandic group CB Holdings retain 50%, it is clear that the dynamic duo have taken operational and commercial control of the club. Indeed, it was evident that their takeover was tacitly approved by the club’s bankers, as their covenants would have included the power to veto any change of ownership. The deal included an option to purchase the remaining 50% and Sullivan and Gold have already increased their stake in the club to 60% in May at a cost of £8 million with £4m going to CB Holdings and £4m to the club to help bridge the gap in the club’s finances.

This injection of new funds was much needed, in fact, it was more or less essential for the club’s survival. Although the auditors did not go so far as to question the club’s ability to continue as a going concern (like Hull City and Liverpool), the Finance Director himself described West Ham’s business strategy as “fundamentally flawed”. On the delayed release of the club’s latest accounts (up to 31 May 2009), Sullivan stated, “These results testify to the amount of work that has to be done to restore this club to a position of financial strength.”

"You can put your shirt on them"

While Sullivan demonstrated commendable restraint in that instance, he had pulled no punches on his arrival in the East End, “We wouldn’t buy this club at all, if we weren’t West Ham fans. It makes no commercial sense for anyone to buy this club. It is a serious mess.” His co-owner, David Gold, also did not hesitate to put the boot in, “It’s madness what we have paid. The place was a car crash. Every page we turned in every document revealed yet another problem. It was the worst set of figures I have seen.”

The involvement of the Icelandic investors is a cautionary tale. Billionaire Bjorgolfur Gudmundsson took over the club in November 2006 with much fanfare, promising to challenge the top four, and proceeded to splash the cash on huge transfers and inflated salaries. However, when his fortune was wiped out in the Icelandic financial collapse, West Ham also faced bankruptcy. Administration was only prevented when Hansa, the club’s holding company, was sold to CB (Claret & Blue) Holdings, a consortium of four Iceland banks led by Straumur, which is itself insolvent and is now owned by the Iceland government. This sale was extremely important for West Ham, as it protected the club against the threat that any one of Gudmundsson’s creditors could request a forced liquidation of Hansa’s assets – the largest of which happened to be West Ham.

The club was also fortunate when the District Court in Reykjavik froze Straumur’s debt repayments until September 2010, which allowed them the breathing space to secure a reasonable offer for the club, hence the £50+ million bid from Sullivan and Gold, which was certainly higher than the sum they originally intended to pay. However, what was in the new owners’ favour was that it was obvious that CB Holdings had zero interest in owning a football club. Their only objective was to get back the money they were owed by Gudmundsson, so they were more than willing to do a deal, especially as the value of the assets would have dramatically decreased if West Ham had been relegated (a distinct possibility in January).

"I am the eggman"

However, there’s no doubt that Sullivan and Gold have inherited a club with countless problems, most obviously a lot of debt. The accounts list net debt of £44.9 million, arising from gross debt of £47.8 million less cash balances of £2.9 million. This comprises a bank loan of £31.5 million, revolving credit of £14.7 million and HP loans of £1.6 million. Interest is charged at 2.5% over LIBOR, leading to £4m expenses in 2009. Obviously, £45 million of debt is low compared to many Premier League clubs (notably Manchester United over £700 million, Liverpool £350 million), but then again these clubs do generate considerably more revenue.

Nick Igoe, West Ham’s Finance Director, confirmed that the debt was a major concern, “At 60% of turnover, the bank debt can hardly be considered excessive. The reason why the level of debt is challenging is that it is relatively short-term in nature, expiring as it does in August 2011, and has to be viewed alongside other liabilities.” In fact, the bank loan is technically repayable on demand, as the club breached its debt covenants. Only the goodwill of the group’s bankers agreeing to waive those breaches allowed a new schedule to be established with the majority of the repayment back-ended to 2011.

The debt would have been even higher if former owner Gudmundsson had not invested a further £30.5 million of equity in 2008 and CB Holdings agreed to a £10 million loan being converted into equity in November 2009.

That’s bad enough, but Sullivan has spoken of a far higher figure, “When we took over in January, the club was £110m in debt, though we have cut it down to just over £90 million. In simplistic terms, £50 million is owed to banks, £40 million to other clubs and the club’s settlement to Alan Curbishley.”

Not that I don’t trust Sullivan, but I have analysed this in the table above to see where he’s coming from. On top of the £48m bank loans (gross), the accounts tell us that other clubs are owed £25m for transfers: £14 million of net creditors, £2 million of contingent liabilities dependent on number of appearances and £9 million of transfers registered after the balance sheet date. In addition, I reckon that the club still owes Sheffield United £16 million for the Carlos Tevez affair – the 2009 settlement of £21 million is to be paid over four years, so presumably a quarter (£5 million) was paid last year. In addition, the notes to the accounts include £8 million owed to the tax authorities, £1 million to purchase the freehold interest of the training ground and £4 million outstanding legal claims. I have also included an estimated £5 million in respect of severance payments to former managers.

As we can see, many of West Ham’s financial problems have been of their own making, the result of poor executive decisions and downright incompetence. Incredibly, the club has wasted £47 million over the last three years on “exceptional items”, primarily the cost of a number of very damaging legal actions. The daddy of them all has to be when the Premier League found the club guilty of acting improperly and withholding documentation over the transfers of Carlos Tevez and Javier Mascherano. Although the club was given a record £5.5 million fine, many fans believe that the club got off lightly and should have received a points deduction, which would have been enough to send them to the Championship. The team that was relegated, Sheffield United, sued West Ham, settling out of court for £21 million. Adding in the legal fees of £5 million, this whole sorry saga cost the Hammers nearly £32 million.

"It's nothing to do with me"

The club has also had to pay over £5 million in redundancy charges over the last three years, as various appointments have not worked out. This does not include the £2m pay-off to former manager Alan Curbishley, who claimed for constructive dismissal following the sale of Anton Ferdinand and George McCartney without his approval. On the face of it, “Curbs” did not have much of a case, until we discovered that some fool at the club had included a clause in his contract that he had the final say over which players would be sold.

That’s bad enough, but what sort of prize would you award to the half-wit that decided to award the notoriously injury-prone striker Dean Ashton a five-year contract? When Ashton was forced to retire less than a year later, the club was liable for £5.8 million compensation. Although West Ham have made an insurance claim, the chances of success seem low, as evidenced by the accounts not recognising any potential recovery.

Just for good measure, the club managed to lose over £1 million on foreign currency translation. Not bad, when virtually all of your business is conducted in Sterling.

"£2m? Let me think about it"

David Sullivan has also bitterly complained about the wage bill, “The crazy wages the Icelandics were paying brought the club to its knees. I can’t believe the contracts I’ve inherited. Every position is over-paid, whether in administration or on the playing side. All are earning more than they would at other clubs.” When you look at the figures, his arguments carry a lot of weight. Although salaries were cut by £3 million last year, they are still twice as much as they were in 2006 £31 million. In the last five years, revenue has grown by an impressive 140%, but salaries have grown by even more, 200%. This has meant an increase in the crucial wages to turnover ratio to nearly 80%, which the club itself described as “unsustainable”.

This generosity was epitomised by the salaries of the management team. In his first job as manager, Gianfranco Zola was paid £1.9 million a year, while his assistant, Steve Clarke, earned £1.2 million, more than double his equivalent at Manchester United (and he did not have to handle interviews from the BBC, as Mike Phelan does).

The cost growth is not just due to the munificent wages, but also a significant increase in playing staff – from 77 in 2006 to 107 in 2009. It was a similar story off the pitch with “an army of people supporting the first team”, according to Sullivan, though last year there were obviously strenuous efforts to make cuts here, as administrative staff fell from 156 to 110 and part-time employees were slashed from 1,122 to 728.

With such high wages, you would have expected the club to have performed a great deal better than they actually did. In an astonishingly candid admission, the annual report stated, “Clubs with fewer resources and lower levels of expenditure on their squad have achieved a greater level of league and cup success.” Last season, West Ham’s wages were the seventh highest in the Premier League, but they only finished seventeenth. The only other club with a comparable differences between wages and league position was Portsmouth.

Therefore, the club has embarked on a programme of player sales and consequent wage savings, which will mean a reduction in the size of the squad and the replacing of highly remunerated players with less costly replacements. This is reflected in the table above, where we can see that the club had net proceeds of £10.8 million last year, after selling Craig Bellamy, Anton Ferdinand, Bobby Zamora and Matthew Etherington. However, that’s less than 25% of the net expenditure incurred in the previous two seasons. You can clearly see the impact of the Icelandic takeover in late 2006 on the transfer policy.

Their extreme activity once again provoked “open kimono” time in the accounts, which describe many of the group’s investment decisions in this period as “ill judged”. In particular, they note that Calum Davenport and Nigel Quashie, signed in January 2007, only started a combined total of 15 games in three years at a cost of £12 million over the term of their contracts. If you think that’s bad, get a load of the business done the following summer: Freddie Ljungberg and Kieron Dyer have only started 32 games between them and will cost a jaw-dropping £34 million in total.

"Kieron Dyer - no wonder he's smiling"

The club was at pains to avoid a fire sale, as this would have weakened the squad and increased the chances of relegation, but Sullivan told the fans that without his takeover, “£8 million worth of players would have been sold in January and in the summer the club would have needed to sell £16 million worth of players to carry on surviving.”

As you would expect, player amortisation has grown in line with salaries. When a player is bought, the cost is capitalised as an intangible fixed asset and written-off over the length of his contract, as the assumption is that the player would have no value after his contract expires, since he could then leave on a “free”. As an example, Dyer was bought for £6 million on a four-year contract, so £1.5 million costs would be booked to the accounts in each of the next four years. Although costs of buying a player are not fully reflected in the accounts in the year of purchase, over time the amortisation costs can have a real impact, which is what has happened at West Ham with these costs rising from £5 million in 2006 to £20 million in 2009. That’s a lot in the context of the £16 million loss West Ham reported last year, though still much less than a really big spending club like Chelsea (£49 million).

The 2009 loss was nothing new, as the club has only reported a profit once in the last five years, back in 2006, when the results were boosted by promotion to the Premiership and the associated increase in TV money. As Sullivan put it, “This club lost £20m, £40m and £20m in the last three years and there are another £20m losses this year.” Matters financial clearly took a turn for the worse after Gudmundsson appointed Eggert Magnusson as chairman and allowed him to indulge in a form of supermarket sweep.

In fact, the 2009 loss of £16m was less than half of the previous year’s £37 million, a veritable annus horribilis. At the level of the holding company, the loss was even higher at £72 million, mainly due to amortising the goodwill arising from the Icelandic take-over. The losses in the last two years would have been worse still without significant profit on player sales (£16 million in 2008 and £22 million in 2009). On the other hand, exceptional items have severely impacted the bottom line, so that the 2009 loss would have been only £5.7 million in 2009, if these were excluded.

Total revenue last year was £76 million, which was £5 million less than the year before, though in fairness there had been a massive increase in 2008 from £57 to £81 million, largely due to the new three-year Premier League television deal coming into effect. Actually, West Ham’s 2009 revenue is still pretty good – it’s the tenth highest of all English clubs, only just behind Aston Villa and Everton.

The main reason for the drop in 2009 revenue came on the commercial side, where revenue was £8 million lower, following the loss of the XL sponsorship (£4 million) after the holiday company was placed into administration and outsourcing the group’s catering and hospitality operation (£4 million). Although the club did manage to secure SBOBET, a Far Eastern betting firm, as a replacement sponsor at short notice on what was described as “favourable terms”, it is understood that the revenue is much less than the previous deal. The club has also changed kit supplier from Umbro to the Italian firm Macron from the 2010 season. Former chief executive, Scott Duxbury, said that, “Commercially, the club is going from strength to strength”, but this boast does not stand up to scrutiny, if you consider that Spurs earn twice as much commercial revenue as West Ham.

Like almost every other club, television has been the driving force behind West Ham’s revenue growth, rising from £8 million in 2005 (when they were in the Championship) to £44 million in 2009, though this has little to do with the club, being down to the collective Sky Premier League agreement. West Ham now have a huge dependency on television with nearly 60% of their total revenue coming from this stream. West Ham’s share of the Premier League distribution in 2008/09 was £40.4 million, but this will be nearly £6 million less for the season just gone, as they finished eight places lower, so receive a smaller merit payment.

Match day income has been fairly constant at around £18 million a season, but it’s very low compared to other clubs, largely due to the limited capacity of the Boleyn Ground (35,300). Revenue fell £0.7 million in 2009, mainly because the team did not repeat its Carling Cup run from the previous year. However, it was discouraging that the average attendance dropped from 34,500 to 33,250, while season ticket sales also declined from last year’s record of 25,600 to 23,100. To place this revenue into context, Manchester United and Arsenal both earn more than £100 million from match day income, while even Spurs, whose ground is not much larger than West Ham’s, managed to gather £40 million.

"Time to move?"

This explains why Sullivan and Gold are so keen to move the club to the new Olympic Stadium in Stratford with its larger capacity and potential to generate far higher revenue: “Leaving the Boleyn Ground would be a wrench, but the Olympic Stadium is an amazing, once-in-a-lifetime opportunity in a financial and football sense. To move forward, we have to move.” Although the club has made a joint bid with Newham Council, there are many barriers to this project. Three years ago the government rejected this vision, but the former Olympics Minister, Tessa Jowell, has since opened the door to a revised bid, though making it clear that there could be no deal without “money on the table”.

It is unclear who would pay the bill for converting the stadium, reducing the capacity from 80,000 to 50,000, but the costs would be enormous, estimates ranging from £140 million to £200 million. Parallels have been drawn with Manchester City’s conversion of the Eastlands Stadium after the 2002 Commonwealth Games, but this was a planned part of the design, unlike the Olympics Stadium.

The London Organising Committee for the Olympics has also insisted that the running track must remain, which would leave fans far from the pitch. However, David Gold argued, “As an athletics stadium, you’ll get 5,000 people there on three weekends a year. It doesn’t make any economic sense. To claim you’re leaving that as a legacy is like saying we’ll leave it to rot.” He’s got a point and Baroness Ford, Chair of the Legacy Company, conceded that it could be a multi-purpose venue with football and athletics co-existing in the stadium.

"If the hat fits, wear it"

Of course, the other benefit to West Ham’s owners of moving to Stratford would be that they could realise the profit on the club’s major asset by selling Upton Park. In the accounts, this has a net book value of £28 million, but independent surveyors have estimated the value in the real world to be £73 million, which would imply a potential gain of £45 million. As the property market recovers, the profit to Sullivan and Gold could be even higher. If they could persuade the government to foot most of the bill for converting the Olympic Stadium, this would be a “nice little earner”.

In fact, there is much method in the owners’ apparent madness, as West Ham is a club with a lot of potential: it’s well supported, loved by the media and has a recognisable East End brand. The last accounts recognised this, albeit in the driest possible terms, “Forecasts indicate that the group is capable of returning to a position of generating operating profits in forthcoming periods.”

The most obvious step is to cut costs and the club has already embarked on a number of cost saving initiatives. Once again, Sullivan did not mince his words, “There has to be some savings here. This is a club haemorrhaging money.” To that end, the club made the whole squad, with the exception of Scott Parker, available for sale and has already released a trio of mediocre forwards (Mido, Ilan and Guillermo Franco). The belt-tightening also impacted the executive team with chief executive Scott Duxbury and technical director Gianluca Nani being asked to pack their bags. And, of course, Sullivan also sacked the manager, even though he had said immediately after the takeover, “Zola is absolutely staying. I can say that categorically. We believe in our managers and give them the time and support they need.”

"Wake me up, before you go go"

However, there are only so many costs you can cut, so at some stage the club will need to look for revenue growth. They’re unlikely to get much in the near future on the commercial side, as they’ve signed agreements with their current sponsors until 2013. Nor will they be able to greatly increase match day revenue, as it would be difficult to raise ticket prices in the current economic climate. Moving to the Olympic Stadium is the big hope, but even that would not take place (if it is approved) until 2015. More encouragingly, they will benefit from the new Premier League television deal, which kicks-off next season. As a minimum, they will receive £10 million more, due to the significant increase in overseas rights. Furthermore, each additional place in the league is worth around £800,000, so if they finished up in the top ten, which is not beyond the realms of possibility, then they would earn another £6 million.

On the other hand, if the club were to be relegated, this would severely dent their prospects. When asked about this possibility, Sullivan’s response was telling, “It would be absolutely horrendous – like Armageddon.”

The new owners have made great play on being West Ham fans: Gold was born across the road from Upton Park and actually played for the youth team, while Sullivan was born nearby in Hornchurch. However, their constant mentions of their roots brings to mind the classic quote from former Crystal Palace chairman, Simon Jordan, “If I see another David Gold interview on the poor East End Jewish boy done good, I'll impale myself on one of his dildos” – a reference to Gold’s main business (a retailer of, ahem, adult goods).

"Simon Jordan - a cross between Spandau Ballet and a clay court"

At times, the owners do indeed speak just like other fans, “I apologise to every supporter for that pathetic showing”, said Sullivan after an embarrassing home defeat. Gold claimed they would “push the boat out” and dip into their own pockets to buy quality players, while Sullivan was of the same opinion, “One year, we’ll chase it, knowing we’ll run up a £30-40 million loss.”

They maintain that they have bought the club on a mercy mission, but it’s intriguing that Sullivan predicted two years ago that he would be able to take advantage of the Icelandic owners, “They might want to say to me, ‘Come and buy half the club and make it work for us’, because they have done some appalling things at West Ham.” Their ambition was highlighted in January, when they announced a “seven-year plan to get them into the Champions League.”

However, Birmingham City fans might remember a similar promise of a five-year plan to take their club up from the Championship into the Premier League. Instead, 18 months later, they were relegated to League One. To be fair, Sullivan and Gold ultimately did steer the club into the Premier League, where they are now solidly established, profitable and virtually debt-free. Most commentators acknowledge that they did a good job at the Midlands club, including developing the stadium, though some fans have bemoaned the higher ticket prices and the club’s lack of ambition. What is without doubt is that Birmingham City was an extremely good investment for Sullivan and Gold. They bought the club 16 years ago for £1, transformed it and sold it last year for a cool £82 million.

This time round, they might need a little help, so the club has appointed Shore Capital to raise £20-40 million in fresh investment, presumably in order to pay back the £35 million of loans which are due for repayment in just a year’s time (August 2011). We cannot know for sure, as the fundraising is being handled via a private placement, so the club can keep financial disclosure to a minimum. Sullivan has revealed that their preferred option is to find other investors who want a 5% or 10% stake. He has already invited Tony Fernandes, owner of Air Asia and one of the rival bidders for the club, to come on board and has even flown to Dubai to hold talks with potential Middle East investors.

"Do you want to know a secret?"

The reality is that West Ham’s business model is “unsustainable” – not my word, but their own Finance Director’s - as it is dependent on continued financial support from the owners or increased bank borrowings. The last three years have seen a combined net cash outflow of £50 million, which has only been compensated by equivalent financing, either via the issue of shares or more loans.

This must be why West Ham’s owners are so eager to pronounce on football’s economic problems. Gold gave us his views on debt, “Controlling debt is one of the fundamentals that the Premier League should be addressing. We almost need to be saved from ourselves. Because we're in such an extraordinary business we are subject to building debt because we're under pressure from fans, other board members, the manager, the players.” Sullivan then took aim at players’ wages, “Maybe the ultimate solution would be a salary cap. Other than that I just don't see an end to it – of wages out of all proportion to the turnover of the clubs. Somehow there should be some sort of control.”

All very admirable, but there are some obvious contradictions with West Ham’s own actions. Just after asking everyone at the club to take a 25% cut in their salaries, Sullivan was willing to offer the prolific Ruud van Nistelrooy £100,000 a week, even though his best days are clearly behind him. While understandably complaining about the excessive spending of the previous regime, he simultaneously handed the unfit Benni McCarthy a £50,000 a week contract that will see him through to his 35th birthday (the same player who was rejected by South Africa for being overweight).

On the one hand, Sullivan is against the benefactor model, but they are personally paying for vice chairman Karren Brady, who worked for them at Birmingham, out of their own pocket. Similarly, the owners are not taking a salary themselves, as part of their cost containment campaign.

"The Brady Bunch"

To be fair, Sullivan and Gold do seem to be focused on taking care of the club’s finances, rather than themselves, unlike many other owners we could mention. Although they possibly got the club on the cheap, they are making all the right noises. Gold said, “Our job is to reduce the debt and at the same time to improve the squad. If that means we have to put some money in, then that’s what we’ll do. WE will do that. We will not go and borrow it, knowing that if we fail, the football club will be landed with the debt.”

Their confidence in their own abilities provides some comfort, with Sullivan painting a bright future, “We are taking over an incredibly bad situation. However, we will sort it out, because we are good at it.” Whether the happy couple live up to that pledge or are just a couple of Cockney chancers, only time will tell. For the sake of West Ham fans, who have had to put up with more than their fair share of broken promises, let’s hope that they can deliver and it’s not just another set of dreams that fade and die.