Tampilkan postingan dengan label Bill Kenwright. Tampilkan semua postingan
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Kamis, 15 September 2011

Everton - No Blue Skies


Football fans are rarely happy. After all, there are only so many trophies that can be won, so the majority of teams will end the season empty handed. That said, Everton’s fans seem to be particularly despondent these days, so much so that a coalition of supporters’ groups known as the Blue Union initiated a protest march before last week’s home game against Aston Villa.

Their principal complaint is that the club is stagnating under the current ownership, but their objective is rather more sophisticated than the customary “sack the board” knee-jerk reaction to adversity of crowds the world over. Instead, this campaign is more about freeing up Everton’s executives to focus on operational issues, such as growing revenue and cutting costs, while a “fully autonomous group of professional individuals” is brought in to expedite the sale of the club to a buyer who can drive the club forward.

Everton have effectively been on the market for many years, but the chairman Bill Kenwright has so far failed to attract the new investment that the club so badly needs. Therefore, the Blue Union’s suggestion is that the club introduces a similar arrangement to the one that (eventually) worked at neighbours Liverpool, when independent chairman Martin Broughton identified John W. Henry as the Reds’ potential saviour.

"Phil Jagielka prays for investment"

Specifically, they are not seeking Kenwright’s departure, though this would not have come as a complete surprise after details of their extraordinary meeting with the chairman were published. Even if the release of a detailed transcript of a private meeting was ethically dubious, it was to a large extent justified by Kenwright’s admission that the club’s financial situation was every bit as bad as many fans had feared.

Although this was nothing new to seasoned observers of Everton’s finances, the explicit revelation that the bank had forced the club to reduce its overdraft facility and was effectively preventing manager David Moyes from signing new players was still shocking news. Indeed, Kenwright confirmed that the proceeds from the sale of players and the club’s old training ground at Bellefield had gone towards reducing the club’s £45 million debt.

Kenwright is clearly a genuine Everton fan, but at times he seemed completely out of his depth during the discussion. Not only was he vague about the long-standing issue of a new stadium, but he was essentially clueless about the club’s financials. OK, maybe that’s a bit too harsh, but he was clearly confused and really should know a great deal more after so many years as chairman.

"Tim Cahill - up for the fight"

In fairness to Kenwright, in the past he has appreciated the main issue facing Everton, which is how to keep the team challenging at the top end of the Premier League without new investment. However, his strategy, for want of a better word, has seemingly consisted of little more than relying on David Moyes to continue to work minor miracles on a shoestring budget.

With some justification, Kenwright calls Moyes “the most important figure at the club”, describing him as “a manager who will go down as one of our all time greats.” Moyes himself is proud of his achievements, pointing out that in the 10 years he has been at the club, Everton have finished in the top 10 seven times. In fact, they have done rather better than that under his guidance, as his record includes two fifth places and a memorable fourth place in 2004/05, when the team qualified for the Champions League.

However, although Moyes refuted the fans’ charge of stagnation, even he admitted that he was operating under severe financial constraints, “Of course we want to be top of the league and winning cups, but at our club, we have got a level of finances, wages we can pay and stuff that we can do. We try and then get the best team and the best performances we can out of the players we have got.” It is fair to say that Moyes has got the most out of his resources, consistently outperforming teams that have spent more.

"David Moyes - a lot on his mind"

However, these results are slim pickings to a “grand old team” with Everton’s fine tradition. Only Arsenal have a longer unbroken spell in the top flight than the Blues, who have won the old First Division nine times, the FA Cup (when it meant something) five times and the European Cup-Winners Cup once. Four of those trophies came during a memorable period between 1984 and 1987, but the problem is that even though this might seem like yesterday to Everton supporters, it is nearly 25 years ago.

Since the introduction of the Premier League in 1992, Everton have struggled to live up to their glorious past, only winning the FA Cup in 1995. After the death of former owner John Moores, the club began to struggle both on and off the pitch. The Moores family shareholding was bought in 1994 by Peter Johnson, whose tenure was fairly disastrous with the club frequently involved in a fight against relegation.

Five years later, leading theatrical producer Bill Kenwright headed a consortium named True Blue Holdings Limited that bought the club in a deal that valued it at £30 million, though the source of the funds has never been completely clear. A series of ugly boardroom disputes ensued between Kenwright and fellow directors, Paul and Anita Gregg. Both sides tried to win over the Everton fans with ambitious investment plans, Kenwright’s version entitled the Fortress Sports Fund, but neither of these came to fruition. Finally, in 2006 the Greggs sold their shares to the entrepreneur Robert Earl, a friend of Kenwright, but all the infighting took its toll.

While professing to provide Moyes with “every available penny”, the reality is that the level of funds available to the manager has been diminishing. Indeed, the net spend has been negative over the last three seasons, adding up to £20 million sales proceeds. During the meeting with the Blue Union, Kenwright said, “On average, we give him £5.6 million every year. Nine years – that's £45 million.” Leaving aside the appalling arithmetic, that’s palpably incorrect in recent times.

In fairness to Everton’s board, they did break the club’s transfer record three times between 2006 and 2008: first for speedy striker Andrew Johnson £8.6 million, then Nigerian international Yakubu £11.25 million and finally powerful Belgian midfielder Marouane Fellaini £15 million.

However, since then Moyes has had to sell to buy. Everton’s last major splurge came in the summer of 2009 as the £22 million proceeds from Joleon Lescott’s transfer to Manchester City was spent on Diniyar Bilyaletdinov £10 million, Johnny Heitinga £6 million and Sylvain Distin £4 million.

Everton’s chief executive, Robert Elstone, summed up the club’s approach, “We have to be astute in the transfer market and the manager and the chairman have a good record in doing that.” He’s not kidding, when you consider that Moyes managed to secure the services of Tim Cahill, Mikel Arteta, Phil Jagielka, Steven Pienaar and Seamus Coleman for less than £10 million in total.

However, the lack of activity has become really pronounced in the last two years with only Newcastle having a lower net spend than Everton in the Premier League over that period – and that was largely due to the extraordinary £35 million sale of Andy Carroll to Liverpool. No wonder that Elstone drily observed, “It is fair to say we have not got a big transfer war chest. I can’t see us smashing our record transfer fee on a regular basis.” Quite.

In fact, even the three sides just promoted from the Championship have comfortably outspent Everton. Closer to home, it must be especially galling that Liverpool have splashed out well over £100 million on new players in 2011. In stark contrast, Everton have seen the departures of Pienaar, Arteta, Yakubu, Jermaine Beckford and James Vaughan since the turn of the year, with only a couple of loan signings coming the other way: Dutch misfit Royston Drenthe and unheralded Argentine strike Denis Stracqualursi.

Moyes confessed his concerns after yet another frugal transfer window, “It will be really difficult to finish in the top 10. I think we are going to have a big struggle. Look at the spending of Stoke, Sunderland, Fulham and West Bromwich Albion.” The only positive to take was that they did not also lose Jagielka, Fellaini and coveted left-back Leighton Baines.

Although Everton’s financial problems may not have attracted the media coverage of some other clubs, the fact is that their business model is bust. Essentially, their strategy has been to run the club at a loss every year in a gamble to achieve success and to fund this by steadily increasing their debt, but now the banks have stopped extending them credit.

It is not too difficult to see why they have made this decision, as Everton’s profit and loss account looks simply awful. Even with healthy turnover of £79 million, they reported a loss of £3 million. In fact, they have only managed to record a profit once in the last eight years – and that was only due to Wayne Rooney’s big money transfer to Manchester United in 2004/05.

Since “Wazza” was sacrificed, the club has suffered £30 million of cumulative losses: 2006 £11 million, 2007 – £9 million, 2008 – zero, 2009 – £7 million, 2010 – £3 million. Over half of that has been due to interest payments, which have risen to £4.5 million in 2010. However, the fundamental problem is that cost growth is significantly outpacing revenue growth. The trend is clear with EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxation, Depreciation and Amortisation) declining from £12 million in 2005 to just £1 million in 2010.

Once non-cash items like player amortisation and depreciation are included, we can observe the deterioration in operating profits, which were at break-even in 2005, but are now showing a hefty loss of £18 million in 2010. In that period, revenue has grown by £19 million (32%) from £60 million to £79 million, while total expenses have shot up by £37 million (61%) from the same level of £60 million to £97 million. The situation is actually even worse than that, as revenue has hardly grown in the last two years, while the cost growth shows no sign of slowing down.

On the face of it, last season’s £3 million loss does not look too bad, but this would have been much worse without the benefit of £19 million profit on player sales, almost entirely due to Lescott’s departure. Without that once-off boost, the 2010 loss would have been a truly depressing £22 million.

Player sales have had a disproportionate impact on the club’s results for many years, contributing £59 million profit since 2005. In other words, the losses would have been even higher if the club had not been selling players. The impact was most obvious in 2005 when Rooney’s sale resulted in a net profit of £23m, but you can also see its importance the following year when the club reported an overall loss of £11 million, as there was no profit from player sales.

As operating losses have increased since then, the importance of player sales becomes even more evident. The key point is that if Everton do not repeat player sales at the same level as 2010, namely around £20 million, then it is extremely doubtful that they will break-even in future. This is unlikely to be music to the ears of Everton fans, but it’s a harsh reality.

Given the above, it might seem a little bizarre that chief executive Robert Elstone said that this was “a healthy set of accounts”, but in comparison with some other clubs, you can sort of see what he means. Everton are by no means the only football club that struggles to balance its books and their loss of £3 million in 2009/10 actually made them one of the better financial performers in the Premier League.

In fact, just four clubs were profitable that season (Arsenal £56 million, Wolverhampton Wanderers £9 million, WBA £0.5 million and Birmingham City £0.1 million), while only one club (Blackburn Rovers) made a smaller loss than Everton. Half of the Premier League made losses over £15 million, while the losses at the clubs that finished in the top three places in 2010/11 were stratospheric: Manchester City £121 million, Manchester United £80 million and Chelsea £70 million. However, the difference between those clubs and Everton is that their owners have largely covered these losses.

Everton’s revenue of £79 million places them in a slightly strange position. On the one hand, this is the eighth highest in England and only one position behind Aston Villa, who enjoy the 20th largest revenue in Europe, according to the Deloitte Money League.

On the other hand, the problem is that their revenue lags way behind other major clubs. It’s significantly behind the so-called “Sky Four” (Manchester United £286 million, Arsenal £224 million, Chelsea £201 million and Liverpool £185 million), who benefited from Champions League riches in 2009/10, but it’s also a fair bit below Everton’s natural challengers (Manchester City £125 million, Tottenham £120 million and Aston Villa £90 million) with the gap expected to grow still wider when the 2010/11 results are published.

This disparity is important, as money tends to equate to success in football. For example, in 2009/10 the seven clubs that finished ahead of Everton in the Premier League were exactly the same as those above them in the Money League. Arguably, Everton could be described as being the “best of the rest”, though their revenue was only £3 million higher than Fulham’s.

The other major issue with Everton’s revenue is that it is not really growing. Elstone recently boasted, “We have signed record sponsorship deals and hugely increased our income”, but the reality is that any growth is almost entirely due to broadcasting revenue. This has risen from £28 million in 2007 to £50 million in 2010, but this has little to do with the club, being almost entirely due to the distributions from the collective sale of Premier League TV rights.

Those revenue streams under the club’s control have essentially remained flat for the last three seasons with commercial income growing slightly from £9 million to £10 million and gate receipts actually falling from £20 million to £19 million. This means that Everton, like many of the clubs in the Premier League, have become very reliant on television money, which now represents 63% of their total income.

In 2010 Everton’s TV revenue of £50 million largely consisted of £43 million from the Premier League plus £4.2 million for reaching the last 32 in the Europa League. The Premier League distribution has risen every time a new three-year deal is signed, as can be seen by the substantial increase in 2008, and there will be a similar £7 million increase in 2011 to just under £50 million, mainly due to the substantial increase in overseas rights.

Given its importance to Everton’s revenue, it is worth understanding how the Premier League allocation works. Each club gets an equal share of 50% of the domestic rights (£13.8 million) and 100% of the overseas rights (£17.9 million). However, facility fees (25% of domestic rights) depend on how many times each club is broadcast live, which hurts Everton, as they were only shown 13 times, a lot less than other clubs. This meant that they received £7.3 million, compared to Manchester United’s £13.5 million. Finally, merit payments (25% of domestic rights) are worth £757,000 per place in the table, leading to £10.6 million for Everton’s seventh position.

Of course, Everton’s 2010/11 TV money will be adversely impacted by the lack of European competition, though it’s only Champions League teams that receive the big bucks, e.g. last season the four English entrants boosted their coffers by an average of £35 million. Although the money was not so high 20 years ago, the ban on English clubs following the Heysel tragedy has undoubtedly cost Everton dearly. In fact, in his own slightly chaotic fashion, Kenwright pinpointed this issue in his chat with the supporters, “You can see the problem in football. United, Arsenal, Chelsea, they get double our TV money, placement money plus Champions League.”

Of course, that’s not Everton’s only problem, as can easily be seen by looking at their mach day revenue of £20 million, which is about one-fifth of Manchester United and Arsenal. Fair enough, their stadiums are considerably larger than Goodison Park, whose capacity is only 40,600. However, Anfield is not that much larger and Liverpool still earn more than twice as much as Everton. Even more striking is that Spurs generate nearly double Everton’s gate receipts, though their ground is actually smaller.

Looked at another way, each home game at Everton produces less than £750,000, compared to more than £3.5 million at United and Arsenal, despite what Kenwright described as a “magnificent level of support.” Average attendances have indeed held reasonably steady, though they did fall to 36,039 in 2010/11, but it’s the lack of decent corporate facilities that has really hurt Everton’s match day income, which actually fell £3 million in 2010 to £19 million. Even though there were three more home games, the previous season included a fair bit of money for the run to the FA Cup Final.

Although Everton have improved their commercial operations in the last few years, the revenue remains fairly feeble at £10 million. To place that into perspective, this is less than a third of Tottenham’s £32 million. Although the club complained that it was difficult to compete commercially with clubs “regarded as having a greater international profile”, such as Manchester United, Liverpool and Arsenal, Everton are surely at least as attractive a proposition as clubs like Spurs and Villa.

To be fair, the club outsourced its merchandising and catering operations in 2006 and its retail business to Kitbag in 2009, which means that their reported income is around £7 million lower than it would be if these activities were still in-house, but the relatively small sponsorship deals should still be questioned.

Everton have enjoyed a long-term shirt sponsorship deal with Chang Beer, which has been extended no fewer than four times, the latest running until 2014. This increased the annual payment from £2.6 million to £4 million (partly performance-related), but this is still only half as much as Aston Villa’s new £8 million deal with Genting and a lot less than Tottenham’s £10 million deal with Auresma. Of course, Liverpool and Manchester United are in a different commercial league altogether with their deals worth £20 million per annum.

The 10-year Kitbag deal is expected to generate more than £30 million over the duration of the contract. As part of the agreement, Everton switched kit suppliers from Umbro to Le Coq Sportif, the brand worn by the team during one of its most successful season in 1984/85, which should generate a further £3 million. This also led to the refurbishment of the megastore opposite Goodison and the Everton Two store, which boasts the inspired address of “Everton Two, Liverpool One”, as the latter is the name of its shopping complex location.

Like all other football clubs, the main reason for the cost growth is the wage bill, which has surged 76% (£23 million) from £31 million in 2005 to £54 million in 2010. This has caused the crucial wages to turnover ratio to rise during this period from 51% to an uncomfortable 69%, which is only just below UEFA’s recommended upper limit of 70%, though it would come down to “only” 64% if the outsourced operations were included in the club’s turnover.

Elstone commented that this “simply serves to underline our commitment to both signing the best available players and to securing the long-term future of those already at the club.” In 2009/10 Everton effectively replaced one international player (Lescott) with three arrivals (Bilyaletdinov, Distin and Heitinga), so had to cover two new salaries plus the loan cost of Landon Donovan. In addition, there were new contracts for Louis Saha, Tim Howard, Jack Rodwell, Joseph Yobo and Phil Jagielka.

There’s no doubt that it would be difficult for any club to remain competitive without participating in the salary “arms’ race”, a point that Moyes stressed in the summer of 2010, when he warned the directors that Everton risked losing their key players unless they broke the wage structure. This led to more contract extensions for Mikel Arteta, Tim Cahill, Leighton Baines, Seamus Coleman and Victor Anichebe. Arteta’s salary alone was reported to have increased from £45,000 to £75,000 a week.

It is therefore likely that the wage bill for 2010/11 will show a further increase (the Blue Union is estimating £58 million), before falling the following season due to numerous player departures and loans.

In fairness, Everton’s wages of £54 million are nowhere near the highest in the Premier League with five teams having wage bills more than twice that level: Chelsea £173 million, Manchester City £133 million, Manchester United £132 million, Liverpool £114 million and Arsenal £111 million. Other teams challenging for Europa League places also pay a lot more, such as Aston Villa £80 million and Tottenham £67 million. In short, Everton’s wage bill could be described as mid-table, so any league placing higher than this should be considered a bonus.

The other aspect of player costs, namely amortisation, has also been rising – from £10 million in 2007 to £17 million in 2010. When a new players is bought, football clubs do not write-off the cost immediately, but instead book it onto the balance sheet as an intangible asset and write it off over the length of the contract, as the assumption is that the player would have no value after his contract expires, since he could then leave on a “free”.

As an example, John Heitinga was bought for £6 million in 2009 on a 5-year contract, so £1.2 million amortisation is booked to the accounts in each of the next five years. Over time amortisation costs can have a real impact, which is what has happened at Everton. The 2010 charge of £17 million might be low compared to a big spending club like Manchester City (£71 million), but it’s a lot in the context of Everton’s £79 million revenue, though it’s likely to fall following the lack of transfer activity.

Everton’s other operating costs of £24 million are a similar level to Tottenham £27 million and Aston Villa £25 million, but they seem very high in relation to the size of the club. They represent 25% of total costs, only surpassed by Arsenal (due to the Emirates effect) among the leading eight clubs, and 30% of revenue, only below Manchester City, whose ratio will fall following their certain revenue growth.

The massive increase from £12 million in 2007 to £21 million in 2008 is unexplained, though it should be noted that theses costs averaged £17 million in 2005 and 2006. Part of the rise is certainly due to higher expenses at the Finch Farm training facility compared to Bellefield, but the lease here is no higher than £1.5 million. Kenwright did not exactly clear up the ambiguity of what is included here, when the Blue Union put the question to him, “When you say other operating costs what do you mean? I don’t know, I have no idea.”

The chairman was equally vague last year when discussing the club’s debt, “I do not understand why football clubs have such big debts, it is a mystery. Our debt is a big debt and a worrying debt, but it is manageable because of our performance on the field… but it is too much debt that every year is going to be added to.” That part’s certainly true, as the net debt has more than doubled from £20 million in 2005 to £45 million in 2010. It rose £7 million last year alone.

The debt has been rising because the club has been spending money that it does not have on strengthening the team. As Elstone put it, “our pursuit of success has stretched our finances.” The result of this risky strategy is clear to see, as the club is burdened with a 25-year loan from Bear Sterns (now at £25 million), which has the advantage of being long-term, but carries a high interest-rate of 7.79%, leading to annual payments of £2.8 million. The only way that Everton can manage to pay this is by increasing its bank debt, so the club has built up bank loans of £17 million and an overdraft of £5 million.

Although Everton’s debt is by no means excessive compared to other football clubs, the problem is that they appear to have no realistic way of paying it off. That is why the bank has capped the club’s overdraft at £25 million, which has meant that the £8 million received for the sale of Bellefield last December and the proceeds from this year’s player sales have gone directly to the bank.

"Tim Howard - shout, shout, let it all out"

Furthermore, the loans are covered by the securitisation of future revenue (TV money and ticket sales). The accounts also note a potential sting in the tail with up to £12 million of contingent liabilities for transfers, which are payable dependent on future appearances and loyalty bonuses.

Everton’s total liabilities are actually £95 million, leading to net liabilities of £30 million, so £50 million of value has been lost in just over a decade, as the balance sheet had net assets of £19 million in 1999. Most of the club’s assets have been sold off, which also increases costs for higher rents, while Goodison’s value is declining.

The only substantial assets left are the players themselves with a book value of £45 million, though Elstone points out that accounting conventions mean that players are recorded in the balance sheet way below market value. This is certainly true, especially as nothing has been included for home grown players, and the respected Transfermarkt website lists a value of £120 million. However, the problem is that for the club to access that value, they would have to sell those players.

The cash flow statement underlines the fundamental problems with Everton’s business model, as the cash flow has been negative for the last five years. Take last year, when the club’s revenue was just about at record levels, they sold Lescott for an incredible £22 million, they took out net new loans of £6 million – and yet there was still a net cash outflow of £1 million.

So is there anything that Everton can do? Is there a blueprint for success?

I can see five possibilities: (a) be successful on the pitch; (b) cut costs; (c) build a new stadium; (d) find a wealthy benefactor; (e) focus on youth.

"Marouane Fellaini has a hair-raising experience"

(a) As we have seen, higher places in the Premier League produce higher merit payments, but to make a meaningful difference to the revenue, Everton would have to qualify for the Champions League on a regular basis. Although they have managed that once during Moyes’ tenure, thus proving that it’s not impossible, this objective seems further away than ever today with the traditional “Big Four” being supplemented by Manchester City and Spurs.

Furthermore, fourth place does not guarantee qualification to the lucrative group stages, but only to a qualifying match, where the luck of the draw plays a huge part. Everton would be only too aware of that, as they were (unluckily) eliminated by Villarreal in such a tie in 2005.

(b) All football clubs could cut costs, but this approach would almost certainly condemn Everton to a regular struggle against relegation. To achieve break-even, Everton would have to reduce the cost base by £15 million, assuming that £10 million profit is made on player sales each year.

Assuming that operating expenses are reasonably fixed, that would mean cutting the wage bill by nearly 30% to £39 million. Only three clubs had a lower wage bill that that in the 2009/10 Premier League – and two of those were relegated. If Moyes has been fighting with one arm tied behind his back up to now, this would be tantamount to also binding his legs together.

(c) A new stadium would help address the low match day income, but it appears no closer now than when the search first started 15 years ago. A proposal to build a stadium as part of the King’s Dock regeneration was scrapped in 2003 when the club failed to raise sufficient money, while the government rejected the planning application to build a new 55,000 capacity ground as part of a retail park in Kirkby, on the outskirts of Liverpool.

On the face of it, this was a real blow to the club, as they had been putting all their energies into this scheme with former chief executive Keith Wyness going so far as to describe it as “the deal of the century”, because Tesco were going to pay a proportion of the construction costs, leaving Everton to fund the remainder by selling Goodison Park and Bellefield and charging for naming rights at the new stadium.

However, the rejection might just have been a blessing in disguise, as many fans never warmed to the idea of moving to Kirkby, prompting the formation of the “Keep Everton In Our City” (KEIOC) campaign. In addition, the financials did not seem to add up, as the assumptions behind the funding looked optimistic, while a study performed by Deloitte on behalf of Everton estimated a paltry £6 million extra profit a year and that was based on the club almost filling the 50,000 stadium every match.

"A man of Distin-ction"

The focus appeared to have switched to improving Goodison, especially after the announcement of a £9 million office and retail development, funded by partners, that will free up space inside the stadium for profitable corporate facilities. Elstone admitted that it was unrealistic to expect the club to be inside a new stadium within five years, later adding, “there is a shortage of a viable funding model”, which had always been obvious to most rational analysts.

However, to the surprise of nobody, this viewpoint was contradicted by Kenwright, who recently said, “There are six sites we’re looking at, three of which we’re really keen on: Edge Lane, Speke and another one.” Even with the support of Liverpool Council, who have proposed using the rapid transit Merseyrail line to ease transport access, the only viable way forward for a new stadium would be if a new owner were prepared to fund the construction.

(d) Although Bill Kenwright might be a great bloke, as he admitted himself, he is “a pauper when it comes to other chairmen.” The harsh reality is that the current owners have not put any money into Everton football club, which is in stark contrast to other benevolent owners, e.g. £187 million at Fulham, £115 million at Sunderland, £85 million at Bolton, £52 million at Wigan and £43 million at Stoke.

"Bill Kenwright - True Blue"

In the last annual report, Kenwright stated, “I continue to work tirelessly to find that rich and generous benefactor”, but he has been looking to attract other investors for years without success. He maintains that “no-one can sell the club better than me”, despite all evidence to the contrary, such as the recent admission that Everton allowed one potential investor to conduct due diligence in the belief that he was the head of ICI in the Far East, even though that company was taken over three years ago.

Some have questioned whether Kenwright is actually serious about selling the club, but, in fairness, there are many clubs searching for a benefactor and the tough economic climate has not helped.

Even David Moyes has got involved, suggesting that Everton would be an attractive investment, as they “could be very close to being very good for not an awful lot of outlay. It might not be one of those clubs that needs £300-400 million to turn it around.”

"Seamus Coleman - he's mustard"

He might have a point, but to do the job properly would require investors with very deep pockets. First, they would have to buy out the directors’ shares, which an investment bank estimated would cost £75 million, but they would also have to repay the loans £45 million, fund a new stadium £250 million, buy new players £50 million and inject working capital to cover losses £50 million. That doesn’t leave much change from half a billion.

(e) Probably the most realistic policy would be to focus on developing young players at the technically advanced Finch Farm academy, counting on profitable sales at a later stage. Everton are renowned for having a brilliant youth system that has produced the likes of Rooney, Rodwell and Ross Barkley. As Moyes pointed out, the flip side of not spending money on buying new players is that youngsters will always get an opportunity at Goodison.

Clearly, a selling policy would not prove universally popular with the fans, but it is not necessarily a negative strategy, as plenty of clubs have flourished by adopting such a business model, e.g. Porto, Lyon and Udinese. The other advantage for Everton is that they are quite close to operating this way in any case. At least it would be more under their control, rather than crossing their fingers and hoping for a new owner and/or stadium.

"Ross Barkley - here's to future days"

For many years, Everton under Moyes have been punching above their weight, but even the manager has embraced a new sense of caution, suggesting that it would be “a struggle” for his team to finish in the top half of the table this season. He added, “We have to be careful in what we believe Everton are capable of achieving.”

No matter how much Everton’s passionate following wants the club to return to its former glories, this will be virtually impossible unless there is a dramatic improvement in the financial position. The fans really do deserve better from the board: a clear, coherent strategy would be a step in the right direction.

Rabu, 14 April 2010

Why Has Nobody Bought Everton?


While the focus on Merseyside has been on Liverpool, both in terms of their likely failure to qualify for the Champions League and the financial doom and gloom arising from the Hicks and Gillett regime, people seem to have overlooked what is happening at Goodison Park. Not only have Everton recovered very well after a dreadful start to the season, including a memorable dismantling of Manchester United, but they also have issues of their own off the pitch. Their financial problems may not be quite so spectacular, but the fact is that Everton’s business model is bust. Their strategy, for want of a better word, appears to be to run the business at a loss every year in a gamble to achieve success on the pitch and to fund it by steadily increasing their debt. Every now and then, they might accidentally make a profit, but only at the price of selling one of their prize assets, the best/worst example being Wayne Rooney five years ago. From a commercial perspective, it is difficult to see how the club will prosper in the future – unless they find a wealthy benefactor.

That is why leading theatrical producer, “True BlueBill Kenwright, who has been Everton chairman since 2004, formally put the club up for sale in 2008, when he appointed Keith Harris of the investment bank Seymour Pierce as broker, but Everton has effectively been on the market for many years. The reasons are obvious, but Kenwright explained why his “kind of chairmanship” no longer has a future in the rich men’s playground known as the Premier League: “I am a pauper when it comes to other chairman. I want this club to have a billionaire owner, but it’s not me and I apologise it’s not me. Everyone knows this football club needs investment. If I can sell it, it will be sold tomorrow”. If this had not been evident before, it became abundantly clear with the arrival of Sheikh Mansour’s billions at Manchester City, which has starkly highlighted the limited budget available to David Moyes.

"Here comes the sun"

So why has nobody bought Everton? After all, this is a club with a fine tradition, having been winners of the old First Division nine times, the FA Cup (when it meant something) five times and the European Cup-Winners Cup once in 1985. As the song goes, “if you know your history”, but it’s not all old news, as Everton were the last team to break the Big Four stranglehold on Champions League places in 2005, came fifth in the Premiership for the last two seasons and were finalists in the FA Cup only last year. In David Moyes, they also have a very good manager, who Kenwright described as “the most important figure at the club”. It is certainly true that Moyes is responsible for taking the club to the upper echelons of the league, but paradoxically his ability could be considered a strength and weakness, as there is always a risk that he could leave for pastures new. Recently, he appeared to break ranks for the first time, “It’s getting harder to keep up with the Joneses. I want to be involved in a football club which makes progress”.

Even the man tasked with selling the club, Keith Harris, admitted that Everton were not football’s most attractive prospect, “The demographics of Liverpool as a city are not hugely compelling. It is not a very wealthy city. Everton share the city with another club, which arguably has been in the vanguard for the last decade, and they both have a stadium to build. So the economics need a lot of looking at”. They have a loyal, but parochial support, with no identifiable image or brand, which was not helped by the UEFA ban on English clubs in the 80s, which prevented Everton from taking their rightful place in the European Cup.

"I'm reviewing the situation"

In fact, Harris confessed that he was making “no progress at all”, exacerbated by the credit crunch, “It has never been more difficult to find buyers. It's no longer a question of price negotiation - it's should we? People are wondering if now is the time to spend”. Kenwright agreed, “We aren't living in a normal world. I am talking to people every week, but in the last few months it's been 'We want a deal done in the next week' and then you literally don't hear from them again. There's just no money”. That may be true, but it does not take long for hard-nosed financial investors to appreciate that this club simply does not make money. Move along, nothing to see here. They walk away even more quickly once they have noticed the club’s growing debt and realise that they would have to fund the building of a larger stadium.

Ah, the new stadium. Everton had proposed building a new 50,000 capacity ground as part of a retail park in Kirkby, on the outskirts of Liverpool, but in November the government rejected their planning application. This was a real blow to the club, as they had been putting all their energies into this scheme for the last three years. Former chief executive Keith Wyness had gone so far as to describe it as “the deal of the century”, because Tesco were going to pay £52m of the construction costs, leaving Everton to find “only” £78m. Wyness argued that much of this money would have been raised by selling Goodison Park and Bellefield, the club’s former training ground, and charging for naming rights at the new stadium. Any debt would be “easily” serviced from the increased earnings at the larger ground. On the face of it, this rejection seems disastrous, as the supporters have been told, “There is no Plan B”, but now “the book is closed” on Kirkby. Current chief executive Robert Elstone had made this very plain, “If this club is going to compete at the top end of the Premier League, we need a favourable decision”.

"Brave new world?"

This is the third time in 13 years that a proposal for a new ground has come to nothing, but this rebuff might just be a blessing in disguise. Many fans never warmed to the idea of moving to Kirkby, which prompted the formation of the “Keep Everton In Our City” (KEIOC) campaign. Their opposition was explained thus, “This was a location issue. This stadium would have been nine miles outside the city centre, further from a city centre than any other Premier League ground”. Their concerns were shared by Liverpool Council, who would also prefer a central site. A better alternative for the supporters was the proposal to build a new stadium on Liverpool’s prestigious King’s Dock, but that scheme was scrapped when the club failed to raise sufficient money.

Which brings us to the question of how exactly Everton would have funded Kirkby. We’re none the wiser after the planning inquiry, as the club refused to explain how they would meet the construction costs on the grounds (sic) of “commercial sensitivity”. The sale of Goodison is unlikely to make “loadsamoney”, as it is situated in a far from salubrious area with boarded-up terraced houses, while their hopes of redeveloping their former training ground for housing were dashed when the application for planning permission was refused (there’s a trend here). The idea of securing big bucks for naming rights also appears a little far-fetched when you consider the low money paid for shirt sponsorship. If by some miracle the club did manage to cobble together the funds, all it would do is further inhibit their capability to spend money on new players.

"My hands are tied"

On the other hand, a brand new, state of the art stadium (or even planning permission) should “improve the club’s financial position, attract investment and provide more money for the manager”. According to a club spokesman, “Any club which can boast a stadium which is modern, fit for purpose and capable of expansion does represent a more attractive proposition to potential investors”. Indeed, the club’s second largest shareholder, Robert Earl, the Planet Hollywood entrepreneur, said that he would not put further money in until the club had moved to a new stadium. Kenwright explained the economic facts (as Rafa might say), “I don’t want to be the guy that takes the club away from Goodison Park. I would sooner stay here personally, but it is not an option financially”. In the same way that Arsenal had to leave Highbury for the Emirates, Everton need to relocate to a stadium with more commercial opportunities and higher match day revenue.

Something has to be done to boost the club’s revenue, as the profit and loss account looks simply awful. Last year, even when the club reported record turnover of £79.7m (an increase of £4.0m on the previous year) on the back of a pretty successful season, they still suffered a loss of £6.9m. This is nothing new under the sun, as Everton have only managed to record a profit once in the last seven years – and that was only due to Wayne Rooney’s big money transfer to Manchester United in 2005. Since “Wazza” was sacrificed, there have been £27.1m of cumulative losses (2006 - £10.8m, 2007 - £9.4m, 2008 break-even, 2009 - £6.9m). Although revenue has significantly increased over the years, thanks to the arrival of Sky television money, this has been matched by spiralling costs. In 1999 Everton reported a loss of £10.7m on turnover of just £25.6m, so in the last ten years revenue has risen by a remarkable £54.1m, but less impressively this has only produced a slightly smaller loss.

"From Hair to Eternity"

The main reason for the cost growth is player wages, which rose by 10.3% last year alone from £44.5m to £49.1m. This “significant investment in the playing squad” gave rise to a higher wages to turnover ratio of 62%, which is nowhere near the worst in the Premier League, but is far from comfortable, even if the club considers it “appropriate”. On top of the salary levels, headcount is also increasing from 210 to 226 with “players, training and management” rising from 80 to 86. As a small compensation, at least the director’s remuneration, presumably Kenwright’s, has reduced from the £450k average of the last three years to “only” 244k in 2009. However, costs have not been helped by wasting nearly £3m on fees incurred for the design and planning of the failed stadium bid (£1.5m in 2008 plus £1.3m in 2009).

The losses over the years would have been even higher if the club had not been selling players. Over the last five years. £40m has been contributed by what accountants call “profit on disposal of players’ registrations”. The impact was most obvious in 2005 when Rooney’s sale resulted in a net profit of £23.5m, but you can also see its importance in the last two years. The club just broke-even in 2008, thanks to £9.2m profit from player sales, but reported an overall loss of £6.9m in 2009, when the profit from player sales was much lower at £3.8m (principally from the sale of Andrew Johnson to Fulham). This bodes well for next year’s results, which will include the £22m sale of Joleon Lescott to Manchester City.

"Moyes has just been told his budget"

This has not stopped the club buying players and Everton have somehow found £84m in the last five years to improve the squad. This does not include £11.8m of contingent liabilities, which will be payable based on future appearances and loyalty bonuses, which would bring the total to nearly £100m. In the accounts, costs associated with buying a player are capitalised as intangible fixed assets and written-off over the length of the contract, as the assumption is that the player would have no value after his contract expires, since he could then leave on a “free”. As an example, John Heitinga was bought for £6m, so if we assume that was on a 4-year contract, £1.5m costs would be booked to the accounts in each of the next four years. Although costs of buying a player are not fully reflected in the accounts in the year of purchase, over time the amortisation costs can have a real impact, which is what has happened at Everton with these costs rising from £12.3m to £13.0m in 2009. That’s a lot in the context of a £6.9m loss.

Kenwright is quite open about this policy in the annual report, “Once again, every available penny was channelled towards the manager to facilitate the upgrading of the senior squad”. This could be seen in the period covered by the last accounts with the record £15m purchase of Marouane Fellaini. Since then, the bulk of the Lescott money has been spent on Sylvain Distin £5m, John Heitinga £6m and Diniyar Bilyaletdinov £9m, but the tap might be closed for a while, given Moyes’ remarks during the January transfer window, “We will be trying to get some players in January but they will probably all be loans. We won't be buying anyone, we don't have those finances”. That’s one of the problems: the only way that Everton have managed to buy these players is by taking on more debt, but Kenwright himself has admitted, “I can’t go on every year as I have been doing, borrowing for transfer funds for David Moyes”.

"No business like show business"

Net debt did actually increase slightly in 2009 from £36.8m to £37.9m, which is nothing compared to the £237m debt at Liverpool or £716m at Manchester United, but it is meaningful, as the club appears to have no way of paying it off. In July Kenwright admitted, “Our debt is a big debt and a worrying debt. It is manageable because of our performance on the field, but it is too much debt that every year is going to be added to”. The debt largely arises from a £30m 25-year loan arranged by Bear Sterns in 2002, which has the advantage of being long-term with a fixed interest rate of 7.79%, but has contributed towards a net interest charge of £4.1m last year (up from £3.9m). In fact, in return for the £30m loan, Everton will end up repaying £68m. The accounts also reveal one other obvious reason for the club’s need to borrow – they have no cash at bank. Nothing, nada, zilch. Not a surprise, given that the cash flow has been negative for the last four years: 2009 - £1.8m, 2008 - £10.9m, 2007 – 4.7m and 2006 - £5.3m. The last time that the cash flow was positive was 2005, due to, guess what, the Rooney sale.

To be fair, Everton control costs quite well, but their revenue lags way behind other major clubs. The 2009 turnover of £79.7m may have been a record for the Toffees, but it’s significantly lower than the Big Four (Manchester United £279m, Arsenal £224m, Chelsea £206m and Liverpool £185m). Fair enough, they benefit from the riches of the Champions League, but Everton are also a fair bit under their peers (Spurs £113m, Manchester City £87m and Aston Villa £84m). They’re even outperformed by Newcastle £86m – who play in the Championship. How can Everton hope to compete on their level of revenue?

Even where revenue has grown considerably, as with broadcasting increasing from £27m in 2007 to £49m in 2009, this has little to do with the club, being down to the collective Sky Premier League agreement. Everton has a huge dependency on television, more so than other clubs, with 61% of their total revenue coming from this stream, but it just about covers the wage bill. This will further rise in the next three years by at least £7.5m per annum, thanks to the recent agreement on overseas rights, but Everton would have to qualify for the Champions League to earn the really big money (another £25m). This is why we have a number of clubs building up debts in order to reach the heady heights of the top four – but they aren’t all going to get there …

Although the club promised to improve its commercial operations a few years ago, it remains feeble at £9.2m, up just £0.5m from the prior year. As a comparison, Spurs earn £29m commercial revenue. To be fair, the club outsourced its merchandising and catering operations in 2006 and its retail business to Kitbag in 2009, which mean that they receive a lower net income from subcontractors, but even so. Everton boast that their shirt sponsorship deal with Chang is the third longest running in the Premier League, but strangely do not mention where they stand in terms of revenue. It’s definitely a lot less than the deal Liverpool recently signed with Standard Chartered Bank – one promise that Christian Purslow actually has delivered on.

"The Story of the Blues"

But where Everton really fall down is match day revenue, which was only £21.9m last year, even though it rose 7%. It may be even lower next year, following the team’s early exit (4th round) from the FA Cup, though this may be offset by their progress in the Europa League. To place this into context, Manchester United and Arsenal both earn more than £100m from match day revenue, while even Liverpool, whose ground is not much larger than Everton’s, managed to gather £43m.

This is the reason why Everton must still look at other options for their ground. Plan B was always to remain at Goodison Park and refurbish their traditional home, but this really would be a case of making the best of a bad job. Limited by a capacity of only 40,000, which is effectively even lower, due the large number of seats with a restricted view, it also does not possess any quality corporate areas for money-spinning hospitality. The ground itself is hemmed in by Victorian housing (and a church) and supported by an inadequate road network. In short, there is no feasible way of transforming Goodison into a modern stadium.

Even if Kirkby had gone ahead, it would not have generated much additional revenue. A study performed by Deloittes on behalf of Everton estimated a paltry £6m extra a year and that was based on the club almost filling the 50,000 stadium every match. That would represent an appreciable increase from last season’s average attendance of 35,667 (down from 36,904 in 2008), so Everton cannot take for granted an increase in crowds, unlike, say, Tottenham, whose proposed new ground is partly justified by their waiting list of 23,000 for season tickets.

"Show me the money"

Others, including Liverpool Council and KEIOC, believe that an alternative location in the city centre can still be found. Although this would be expensive, the suggestion is that it could be financed by some sort of mortgaging scheme, e.g. selling seats for the next 25 years. The council has also indicated that it would favour a ground-sharing scheme, given the financial troubles of both Liverpool clubs. This has worked well on the continent for many years in Milan and Rome and more recently in the Allianz Arena in Munich, where the stadium glows red when Bayern play, and blue when it’s the turn of 1860. How appropriate. However, some worry that this would be detrimental to Everton’s brand, if they were perceived as the junior partners.

What other assets do Everton have? In short, not many. The balance sheet has been deteriorating for a long time with net assets of £18.5m in 1999 declining to net liabilities of £26.7m ten years later. The club takes great pains to emphasise the long-term nature of their loans, but the net current liabilities are also at a record high of £37.4m. Most of the club’s assets have been sold off (the training ground, the academy at Finch Farm and the Megastore), which also increases costs for higher rents, while Goodison’s value is declining. The only assets left are the players themselves with intangible assets now up to £39.4m. Nothing has been included in the accounts for home grown players, but the horrible truth is that any (financial) value would only be realised if the player were sold. What price a debt reducing, balance sheet strengthening sale of Jack Rodwell to Arsenal or Manchester United for £15m this summer?

"Say Hello, Wave Goodbye"

There appears to be no way out for Everton short of a wealthy patron buying the club, described by the Bundesliga chief executive as “the greater fool theory - some day a greater fool will come and buy the club”. At least, Everton have not sold out to leveraged buy-out vultures like the Glazers or a buffoon like Mike Ashley, but the club deserves somebody more financially astute than Kenwright, who unbelievably stated, “I do not understand why football clubs have such big debts, it is a mystery”. Indeed, some fans are growing suspicious of Kenwright’s numerous claims that he is looking for an investor (“Every name you see that has been out there looking for football clubs, we’ve spoken to them. We’ve had people in the Far East, America, Switzerland, Japan …”). When challenged on this at the 2009 AGM, Kenwright’s incredible response was, “I’m not answering your question. I’m bored with your question”.

Whoever buys the club would need very deep pockets. First, they would have to buy out the directors’ shares (Kenwright 25%, Earl 23%, John Woods 19%), but they would also have to repay the loans, fund a new stadium, pay for new players and inject working capital. Not a very appealing prospect from a financial point of view. Just look at Randy Lerner at Aston Villa: he paid £63m to takeover the club, but has since pumped in another £200m to improve the squad – without spending anything substantial on the stadium.

This is a major issue for Everton, as the other clubs striving to break through the glass ceiling all have rich sponsors (Villa – Lerner, Spurs – Joe Lewis, City – Sheikh Mansour). As Kenwright put it in the annual accounts, “maintaining our progress, continuing to punch above our weight will be very difficult”. He added, “At the end of the day, the club’s finances will be key to everything”. If that is indeed the case, Everton’s fans might have to settle for mid-table mediocrity, unless Moyes can continue to “work miracles”.