Kamis, 01 Desember 2011

Manchester City - The Masterplan


After many years in the wilderness, these are good times to be a Manchester City fan. Last season their team recorded its best ever performance in the Premier League by finishing third, thus qualifying for the Champions League for the first time, and won its first major trophy for 35 years when defeating Stoke City in the FA Cup final.

Their momentum has continued this season (at least on the domestic front), as they lead the Premier League by five points after a series of impressive victories, including an astonishing 6-1 triumph against local rivals Manchester United at Old Trafford, and have reached the semi-finals of the Carling Cup. However, they have found life more difficult in Europe, where they now have to rely on others to avoid elimination at the Champions League group stage.

Nevertheless, the force appears to be with the Citizens, boosted by the £800 million or so that Sheikh Mansour has invested since his Abu Dhabi United Group bought Manchester City three years ago. Quite simply, this is a club transformed.

Of course, that is most clearly seen in the huge amounts of money spent on recruiting new players, which has had a dramatic impact on the club’s performance, both on the pitch and on the financial side of the “project”.

In fact, they have just announced the largest loss in English football history of £197 million, which easily surpassed the previous record of £141 million reported by Chelsea in 2004/05, the first full year after the acquisition by their Russian benefactor Roman Abramovich. In fairness, £34 million of the deficit was due to exceptional items that should not be repeated in future seasons, but the loss would still have been a hefty £163 million.

Admittedly, most football clubs are loss-making with only 4 of the 20 Premier League clubs registering profits in 2009/10, but few have burned through the cash like City, who have accumulated losses of £411 million in the last three years: 2009 £93 million, 2010 £121 million and 2011 £197 million. This is not quite unprecedented, as Inter suffered aggregate losses of around £440 million in the three years between 2007 and 2009, but it’s rare for large clubs to lose this sort of money.

Bayern Munich and Real Madrid are consistently profitable, the German club reporting profits for an incredible 19 years in a row, while even Manchester United managed to make money last year, despite the significant interest burden on the loans taken out by the Glazers.

However, perhaps the closest equivalent to City are Chelsea, whose wealthy owner also chose to aggressively splash money on talent in a bid to compete with clubs that generate more revenue. Here there is some encouragement for City’s financials, as Chelsea have managed to reduce their losses over the years – though they are still a long way from break-even.

City are looking to follow that example, though they would hope to improve on the end result. As such, they tried to place the latest loss into context, “This result is consistent with the guidance provided in the first MCFC annual report that losses would peak in the 2010-11 financial year, as a result of the accelerated investment programme that the club undertook between 2008 and 2011.”

Chief Operating Officer, Graham Wallace, went further, “These financial results represent the bottoming out of financial losses at Manchester City before the club is able to move towards a more sustainable position in all aspects of its operations in the years ahead.”

The main reason for City’s increasing losses is the investment in the playing squad, which is at the core of that “accelerated recruitment process.” As an example, the 2010/11 figures reflected the signings of Yaya Toure, David Silva, Mario Balotelli, Aleksandar Kolarov, James Milner, Jerome Boateng and Edin Dzeko for the first time.

This acquisition policy has resulted in the wage bill more than tripling since 2008 from £54 million to £174 million, again the highest ever recorded in English football, just above Chelsea’s £173 million in 2009/10. Similarly, player amortisation, namely the cost of writing off transfer fees over the length of a player’s contract, has also grown by more than 200% in the same period from £25 million to £84 million.

As would be expected, the important wages to turnover ratio has also been rising (deteriorating) from a respectable 66% in 2008 to 114% last season. Although some Premier League clubs with very low revenue also have uncomfortably high ratios, City are the only club where the wage bill actually exceeds turnover – and by a whopping £21 million. As a comparison, England’s other Champions League qualifiers have much lower ratios: Manchester United 46%, Arsenal 55% and Chelsea 82%.

The good news is that City’s revenue is rapidly growing, increasing by 22% in 2011 alone from £125 million to £153 million, breaking through the £150 million threshold for the first time in the club’s history. All revenue streams rose: gate receipts by 8% from £18 million to £20 million; media by 28% from £54 million to £69 million, partly due to success on the pitch, including good runs in the FA Cup and Europa League, and partly due to the new Premier League TV rights deal; and commercial income up 22% from £53 million to £65 million.

City’s commercial operations have been the engine driving their growth with revenue surging from £23 million to an impressive £65 million since 2009, mainly due to the impact of new partnerships with Etihad Airways, Umbro, Aabar, Abu Dhabi Tourism Authority and Etisalat, though the new retail agreement with Kitbag has also contributed. City’s commercial income is now only second to Manchester United in England, though Liverpool and Chelsea may have also advanced in the last financial year (accounts not published yet).

What is clear is that City’s revenue growth has been explosive compared to other clubs. Since 2009 their revenue has increased by an amazing 76% (from £87 million to £153 million) with Tottenham the only leading English club to come anywhere close with 46%, almost entirely due to their participation in the Champions League last season. Manchester United and Chelsea achieved a decent 19% and 18% respectively, though were left in City’s slipstream, while Arsenal and Liverpool barely grew at all.

Even before this year’s growth, City had established themselves as one of Europe’s elite in terms of revenue, rising to 11th in Deloitte’s 2009/10 Money League with £125 million. That’s no mean feat, yet, paradoxically, only serves to emphasise the magnitude of City’s task, as the leading clubs generate significantly higher revenue, e.g. last year’s top five earned as follows: Real Madrid £359 million, Barcelona £326 million, Manchester United £286 million, Bayern Munich £265 million and Arsenal £222 million.

While it is true that City’s revenue has since grown to £153 million, the problem is that the revenue is still growing apace at many of the top clubs. Manchester United have advanced to £331 million in 2011 on the back of significant commercial deals, while the Spanish giants have also reported substantial gains in 2011: Real Madrid to £417 million and Barcelona to £392 million.

City’s position in the Money League is even more impressive if you consider that they are the highest ranked of the clubs that did not qualify for the Champions League, a failing that they have obviously resolved this season. The importance of this additional revenue to a club’s finances cannot be over-stated, as seen by the sums earned in Europe last season by English entrants. The four Champions League qualifiers received an average of £35 million in TV money, ranging from £26 million for Arsenal to £47 million for Manchester United, while City and Liverpool both earned just £5 million for their adventures in the Europa League.

The revolution in the blue half of Manchester can be starkly demonstrated by their activity in the transfer market, where they have massively outspent the other leading English clubs in the last five years. In fact, their net spend (purchases less sales) of £440 million is more than the combined net spend of the other five leading clubs: Chelsea £149 million, Liverpool £68 million, Manchester United £53 million, Tottenham £52 million and Arsenal (net sales) £29 million.

Up until the recent injection of funds, City had actually been a selling club with net sales of £5 million in the five years up to 2007. However, last season the club reduced its activity in the transfer market with net spend of “only” £57 million compared to over £100 million in each of the three preceding years.

Of course, the purchases of Sergio Aguero, Samir Nasri, Gael Clichy and Stefan Savic would still be beyond the means of most clubs, but this was at least in line with the promise made by Chairman Khaldoon Al Mubarak regarding the 2011 budget, “It won’t be like last summer or the summer before. What you will see this year is strengthening the squad in areas that we feel require more depth.”

None of this big spending would really be an issue if it were not for the advent of UEFA’s Financial Fair Play (FFP) regulations, which essentially aim to force clubs to live within their means, i.e. break-even. Clearly, City are currently a long way from achieving this, a point acknowledged by Chief Football Operations Officer Brian Marwood, “We’ve got a huge amount of work ahead of us to make sure we are sustainable.”

City’s challenge was highlighted by no less than UEFA President, Michel Platini, when he specifically mentioned the club last year during the announcement of the new financial rules, “Manchester City can spend £300 million if they want to, but if they are not breaking-even in three years, they cannot play in European competition.”

However, City’s former chief executive Garry Cook never seemed too concerned, “We have a very open dialogue with UEFA. We have had several meetings with them and they are very supportive of our plans.” This is a theme echoed by Graham Wallace, “As we undertake the club’s commercial transformation, we are cognisant of the incoming UEFA Financial Fair Play regulations and consequently we continue to maintain positive and ongoing dialogue with all appropriate football authorities.” As the actor Bob Hoskins used to say in the BT advert, “It’s good to talk”, but what does FFP mean in practice?

The first season that UEFA will start monitoring clubs’ financials is 2013/14, but this will take into account losses made in the two preceding years, namely 2011/12 and 2012/13, which means two things: (a) the £197 million loss in 2010/11 is not relevant for the FFP calculation; (b) City’s accounts need to be in better shape pretty quickly.

However, they don’t need to be absolutely perfect, as wealthy owners will be allowed to absorb aggregate losses (so-called “acceptable deviations”) of €45 million (£39 million), initially over two years and then over a three-year monitoring period, as long as they are willing to cover the deficit by making equity contributions, which is a fairly safe assumption in the case of Sheikh Mansour. The maximum permitted loss then falls to €30 million (£26 million) from 2015/16 and will be further reduced from 2018/19 (to an unspecified amount). Note that these sums represent aggregate losses, not a yearly loss.

"Silva and Gold"

Even with all these allowances, the popular view seems to be that City have little chance of reaching break-even in the near future, as expressed by Bayern Munich chief executive Karl-Heinz Rummenigge, who is also chairman of the European Club Association, “Maybe they know a trick I don’t that will allow them to take part in the Champions League.”

Clearly, City have a long way to go to reach break-even, but it’s not completely out of the question, as we shall see from the 15-point plan below, which looks at how City can improve their finances both in the short-term (over the next two seasons) and in the long-term, starting from their current pre-tax loss of £197 million.

It should be noted that this plan is not necessarily a prediction of City’s next set of financials, but merely an example of how they could substantially improve their figures. A number of assumptions have been made particularly regarding transfer fees and salaries, which are notoriously untrustworthy even though they are widely reported. Nevertheless, any minor inaccuracies should not materially affect the principal conclusions.

1. Exceptional Items

The 2010/11 loss included £34 million of exceptional items, comprising £29 million for the impairment of player registrations and a £5 million provision for a “disputed employment costs settlement”, which is not explained, but probably relates to the departure of former manager Mark Hughes and his coaching team.

Impairment is an accounting term for reducing the value of players in the books, as the club decides that they are no longer worth so much. Although the names of the players are not divulged, my guess is that this relates to those players who were released for free (namely Craig Bellamy and Jo) and those who are unlikely to command a fee in future, due to their high wages (e.g. Roque Santa Cruz and Wayne Bridge). My calculations suggest that writing the value of those four players down to zero would have cost almost exactly the £29 million impairment charge.

In any case, such charges by definition should not be repeated every year. Similar treatment might be required for Carlos Tevez and Emmanuel Adebayor, though their net book value in the accounts is probably now low enough to be covered by reduced transfer fees.

"Samir's Town"

2. Financial Fair Play Adjustments

It is not generally appreciated that UEFA’s break-even calculation is not exactly the same as a club’s statutory accounts, as it excludes certain expenses, including depreciation and finance costs on tangible fixed assets plus expenditure on youth development and community development activities.

In City’s case, this means that £6 million of depreciation can be removed right off the bat. Finance costs are not so clear, but I have also excluded the £3 million charge on stadium finance leases, though I have not considered the £5 million interest charge, as the link to tangible fixed assets is not clear-cut.

It is also difficult to assess the youth development expenditure, as this is not separately disclosed in the public accounts, but we can make a reasonable estimate of £10 million based on similar reviews of other clubs. The formation of the Elite Development Squad plus other investment in the academy should easily justify such a sum. In addition, I have excluded a notional £2 million for community development, which may be a little conservative, given City’s strenuous efforts in this area.

Therefore, in total, the Fair Play rules allow City to reduce their expenses by £21 million: £6 million depreciation, £3 million stadium finance lease charges, £10 million youth development and £2 million community development expenditure.

3. Wages – New Signings

The 2010/11 accounts do not include the cost of any new signings after 31 May 2011, which means that we need to add the wages for Aguero, Nasri, Clichy and Savic. Taking Nasri as an example, his wages have been estimated at £150,000 a week, which works out to £8 million a year. In addition, Dzeko joined in the January 2011 transfer window, so the last accounts did not include a full year salary, meaning the remainder has to be added to future years. Although players’ salaries are not divulged, we can make reasonably accurate estimates, giving us a total of £30 million increase in the wage bill.

4. Wages – Departures

On the other hand, six high-profile players left this summer, namely Jerome Boateng, Jo, Shay Given, Shaun Wright-Phillips, Craig Bellamy and Felipe Caicedo, which should have removed around £22 million from the wage bill. It is true that Bellamy and Caicedo were on loan last season to Cardiff City and Levante respectively, but rumour has it that the vast majority of their salaries were still covered by City, so that should not be too much of a factor.

5. Wages – Loans

One consequence of City’s large squad is that they loan out many players to other clubs. Although this also happened last year, it is clear that this policy has been ramped up this season with the annual report noting that the club have “successfully loaned out 22 players.” Therefore, it seems a fairly safe assumption that this has taken a further £5 million off the wage bill. Note that I have not included Adebayor (loan to Tottenham) or Santa Cruz (Betis) in this calculation, as they will be covered by a later point (15).

6. Wages – Normalised Level

As a result of City’s accelerated acquisition of players, their wage bill has surged to £174 million. As recently as 2008, this was lower than Chelsea, Manchester United, Arsenal, Liverpool and Tottenham, but has overtaken all of them in just four years.

However, there are three reasons to expect this to fall in future: (a) City should be able to offload those fringe players who are unlikely to feature for the first team again and are thus surplus to requirements, notably those bought during the Mark Hughes era, such as Adebayor, who would save nearly £8 million alone. (b) Up until recently, City have had to pay a premium to attract players from more established clubs, but a period of success should remove that. (c) More players should progress from the academy.

In theory, the wage bill could be slashed, but I have conservatively assumed a reduction long-term of £21 million to £153 million to be in line with Manchester United’s latest figures, though well ahead of Arsenal’s £124 million. Chelsea’s last reported 2009/10 figures of £173 million are out of date and likely to fall, as the departure of many high earners should have offset the arrival of new signings.

7. Reduced Player Amortisation

When a player is purchased, his costs are not immediately booked to the profit and loss account, but they are capitalised as an asset and written-off over the length of his contract, so there will be a cost impact for a few years. As an example, it was reported that Sergio Aguero was signed for £35 million on a 5-year contract, so his annual amortisation is £7 million (£35 million divided by 5 years).

The impact of signings and departures in 2011 on the next accounts can therefore be reasonably estimated and works out to an increase of £20 million for new arrivals less £14 million for those leaving.

However, City have also been quite astute with their impairment in 2010/11. If I am right in my assumption that they have written-down the value of Santa Cruz and Bridge to zero, that means that there is no more amortisation for those players, reducing the annual charge by £6 million.

Adding together all the adds and drops suggests that the player amortisation will be more or less unchanged next year, though it should fall over time as players come to the end of their contracts, especially if City continue to lower their activity in the transfer market. There is an obvious precedent for this, as Chelsea’s player amortisation decreased from £83 million in 2005 to £38 million in 2010.

"Captain Sensible"

One incentive for City to sell Tevez at a bargain price is to remove his player amortisation from the accounts, which could be worth as much as £9 million a year.

Another policy that I would expect City to apply is to extend player contracts, as any remaining written-down value is amortised over the extended period, which means that the annual amortisation will reduce. For example: a player is bought for £20m on a 4-year contract, so the annual amortisation is £5m. After 2 years, his contract is extended by a further 2 years, meaning that he now has 4 years left on his contract. At the point of renegotiation, his value was £10m (£20m cost less 2 years amortisation at £5m). The new amortisation charge would be £2.5m a year (the remaining £10m divided by the 4 years now left on the contract).

My assumption is that in the long-term City will manage to lower player amortisation by £34 million from £84 million to £50 million, which is still 25% higher than other leading clubs (Liverpool £40 million, Manchester United £39 million and Chelsea £38 million).

8. Etihad Sponsorship

The astonishing 10-year sponsorship deal with Etihad Airways was not included in last year’s figures and will have a major impact. The financials have not been divulged, but a range of £350-400 million has been widely reported. Given City’s need to improve the figures, I shall assume the higher figure, which means £40 million a year. Again, the split of the deal has not been published, but in an earlier piece I assumed that the shirt sponsorship is worth £20 million a year, the stadium naming rights £10 million and the campus another £10 million.

UEFA have yet to decide whether this deal falls foul of their “fair value” ruling, but it is my belief that this will be passed. In any case, even if UEFA rules that City’s deal is above fair value, it is only the excess that would be deducted from the club’s income for the purposes of the FFP break-even calculation and not the entire agreement, so if the deal is worth £40 million a year and UEFA consider the fair value to be £35 million, only £5 million would be deducted.

As Etihad already pay £7.5 million for shirt sponsorship, the uplift would be worth £32.5 million.

9. Other Commercial Deals

City have already gone great guns in increasing commercial income, adding partners like EA Sports, Mansion Group, Thomas Cook, Jaguar and Heineken, but are gearing themselves up to really boost this activity, e.g. by establishing a permanent office in London in a bid to emulate Manchester United’s record-breaking performance here.

Recently, the national media reported that they were set to agree a new £200 million kit deal with Umbro at the end of the season. Even though they are only three years into a 10-year deal, City’s progress means that this can be reviewed and there is talk of a significant increase in the annual payment from £6 million to £26 million. This might seem outrageously high, but is on a par with the sum Umbro already pays for the England team and is around the same level as the sums received by Liverpool from Warrior and Manchester United from Nike (though the latter is likely to rise to £35 million).

"Hand to Mouth"

As well as the £20 million increase from Umbro, I have assumed four more secondary sponsorship deals at £1.5 million a time, which would produce another £6 million, giving a total increase of £26 million. In the long-term, I have been very cautious by only adding a further two secondary deals (worth £3 million), giving long-term growth of £29 million.

That does not include any potential clauses for increases in sponsorship deals from competing in the Champions League. Nor have I attempted to assess any additional commercial revenue from City’s ambitious Etihad Campus development.

10. TV – Premier League

One of the reasons for City’s revenue growth last season was an additional £6 million from the Premier League, giving £55 million, mainly due to the substantial increase in overseas rights for the new three-year deal. At the top of the league, there’s not an enormous financial difference between finishing places, due to the equitable nature of the distribution methodology.

Each club gets an equal share of 50% of the domestic rights (£13.8 million) and 100% of the overseas rights (£17.9 million). However, facility fees (25% of domestic rights) depend on how many times each club is broadcast live, and this was worth £10.2 million. Finally, merit payments (25% of domestic rights) are worth £757,000 per place in the league table (£13.6 million).

However, if City were to maintain their current first place and be shown more often live on television, they would receive around £60 million, i.e. an increase of £5 million. In the long-term, it is likely that TV rights will be worth even more, but again I have been conservative by only assuming an additional £5 million, partly because it is unlikely that City will win the Premier League every year.

11. TV – Champions League

Last season the lowest sum received by an English club in the Champions League was €30 million (£26 million) for Arsenal, who were eliminated in the last 16. I have assumed that City do not make it out of the group, so will not receive the €3 million performance prize for the last 16 and will receive less money from the TV pool, working out to €23 million. I have also added €2 million for money earned from dropping down to the Europa League, giving a total of €25 million (£22 million), which is £17 million higher than the £5 million earned last season in the Europa League.

In the long-term, I have assumed that City will be more effective at European level and earn £30 million, which would represent growth of £25 million. Of course, if they were to reach the final, that would be worth at least £45 million.

"Kompany man"

12. Bonus Payments

The price of success on the pitch is higher bonus payments. Frankly, this is impossible to accurately estimate without knowing how much was paid last season (but this is not separately analysed in the accounts) and each player’s remuneration scheme, so I am only going to include a placeholder of a £10 million increase in the short-term (up to £20 million in the long-term). This may be on the low side.

13. Profit on Player Sales

City made £5 million profit on player sales in 2010/11, but it is not unreasonable to assume that they could make £10 million a year from this activity, especially if the academy really starts to deliver. According to my calculations, that is what they should gain in 2011/12 (assuming that the value of Bellamy and Jo was impaired).

Even though there is a temptation to get players off the wage bill, Roberto Mancini has argued that the club should not let players leave for nothing, “They are good players and if there is a club that wants one of them, they must pay.” That might be bravado, but even if players are sold for a cut-price fee, there may well be a resulting profit after cumulative amortisation is taken into consideration.

Of course, City could easily raise significant funds by selling the likes of Silva, Yaya Tore and Balotelli, but that sort of defeats the object.

14. Match Day

City’s Achilles’ heel is their very low match day income, which is only £26 million (gate receipts plus re-allocation from commercial revenue per Deloitte Money League). This works out to around £1 million a match, which is very low compared to Manchester United £3.7 million and Arsenal £3.3 million. It’s not just a question of stadium capacity either, as Chelsea and Liverpool earn £2.4 million and £1.6 million, even thought their grounds are smaller than City’s.

City have partially addressed this shortfall via a new agreement with the council, whereby the club pays them a fixed amount regardless of the attendance instead of the previous percentage, but there is surely room for further growth. This might mean raising ticket prices, increasing the corporate seats or expanding the capacity of the stadium. The first two moves would be unpopular with fans, though a logical ghastly consequence of FFP, while the stadium expansion would be longer-term in nature.

Plans exist to increase the capacity of the stadium from 48,000 to at least 60,000, but this would not be entirely straightforward, due to its awkward design. There have been some concerns that City would struggle to fill a larger stadium, even though their attendances have always been good (4th highest in the Premier League), but this season their crowds have been virtually at full capacity (99%).

Given the higher attendance, especially in Europe, I have assumed a 10% (£3 million increase) in the short-term, while a reasonable long-term aspiration would be to match Liverpool’s match day revenue of £43 million, as the grounds have similar capacity and both clubs operate in the north-west of England (as opposed to the wealthier south), resulting in growth of £17 million.

15. Wages – Players signed pre-June 2010

The small print in the FFP regulations (Annex XI) states that clubs will not be sanctioned in the first two monitoring periods, so long as: (a) the club is reporting a positive trend in the annual break-even results; and (b) the aggregate break-even deficit is only due to the 2011/12 deficit, which in turn is due to player contracts undertaken prior to 1 June 2010.

In other words, City would be allowed to exceed the “acceptable deviation” of €45 million by the costs of pre-June 2010 signings, so long as the 2011/12 deficit was only due to this factor.

Assuming that this clause refers purely to wages (and does not include player amortisation), I have calculated this cost for “big name” players to be £53 million. Note that players whose contracts have been extended since 1 June 2010 are not counted (as explicitly noted in the regulations), so I have excluded Joe Hart, Pablo Zabaleta, Adam Johnson and Micah Richards. This might explain why City are delaying extending contracts for the likes of Vincent Kompany and Nigel De Jong.

In truth, this still does not completely satisfy the condition that the entire 2011/12 break-even deficit is due to these costs (unless player amortisation is also considered), but it is so close that my guess is that UEFA would look favourably upon this, especially if the trend was going the right way.

So, there you have it, Manchester City’s loss could come down to £88 million (still enormous), but for the purposes of FFP this would represent a break-even deficit of only £14 million. This is clearly by no means a done deal, but if they achieved that in the short-term, it would be extremely difficult for UEFA to throw the book at them.

Longer-term, this plan would produce a comfortable FFP result of £11 million (with a loss of just £10 million reported in the accounts). This would require revenue to grow from £153 million to £266 million, almost entirely from commercial operations, which would need to rise by around 100% from £59 million to £120 million. On the face of it, that might sound absurd, but with the Etihad sponsorship and an improved Umbro deal, it’s not completely pie in the sky. As Ian Cafferky, City’s Chief Commercial Officer said in a recent interview with Sports Pro Media, “We’re trying to double our revenues approximately by 2017.”

As a comparative, Manchester United’s current revenue is £331 million, but we know that this will increase, again largely due to commercial gains, so City’s revenue projection is aggressive, but not unrealistic.

"Toure of Duty"

In any case, many believe that UEFA will never throw a leading club out of their competitions, as this would be the equivalent of biting the hand that feeds. Their General Secretary, Gianni Infantino, talks a good fight, “We will apply these rules strictly in order to safeguard the future of our game”, but exclusion is considered to be very much a last resort only to be applied to repeat offenders.

However, UEFA will be acutely aware of the threat of legal reprisals. As Arsenal manager Arsene Wenger, a staunch supporter of FFP, forlornly commented, “With what happened with Sion challenging UEFA, they have lost a lot of power.” A sliding scale of sanctions is set to be announced in January, to be ratified by UEFA’s congress in March, and is likely to feature a number of financial penalties, including fines and the withholding of participation money, and potentially transfer bans (though even these could be challenged as being a restraint of trade).

In the background, City have been lobbying hard to convince UEFA that the club is committed to a sustainable future, based on the significant investment in the academy, which will be seriously impressive, catering for up to 400 young players, with 16 football pitches, a 7,000 capacity stadium for youth matches and on-site accommodation.. As the annual report stated, “In order to achieve this long-term ambition, youth development must be, and is, our top priority.”

"Baldrick, I have a very cunning plan"

This is completely aligned with UEFA’s objectives, as are the community benefits from the ambitious plans to regenerate the local area. Andrea Traverso, UEFA’s head of club licensing, has already visited the Etihad Stadium for a briefing on City’s intentions and he surely won’t be the last to be given the grand tour.

Anyhow, it’s by no means an impossible dream for City to get close enough to break-even in order to satisfy FFP. It’s not quite the Masterplan that their famous fans, Oasis, once sang about, but it’s a smart strategy that has every chance of succeeding – as long as the team continues to do the business on the pitch.

Jumat, 18 November 2011

Charlton Athletic - Into The Valley


It’s debatable which team has made the best start to the season in England, but Charlton Athletic certainly have a good case, as they have gained more points than anybody else (40 after 17 games), suffering only one defeat in the process, and currently sit proudly at the top of League One. Hopes are high that they will manage to achieve promotion, though they will nervously recall their elimination in the League One play-off semi-final a couple of seasons ago, when they narrowly lost on penalties to Swindon Town, thus consigning the Addicks to a longer stay in English football’s third tier.

Under the guidance of former player, Chris Powell, a fans’ favourite, but inexperienced in the managerial role, Charlton have come out of the starting blocks in fine form. The majority of the goals have been scored by the experienced duo of Bradley Wright-Phillips (“he’s better than Shaun”) and club captain Johnnie Jackson, but an influx of new players over the summer has given the club added impetus with notable contributions made by Danny Hollands, Rhoys Wiggins (both from Bournemouth) and Dale Stephens (formerly with Oldham).

However, Charlton fans would be forgiven if they felt that this was a bit of a come down compared to the recent highs of their time in the Premier League, which lasted seven uninterrupted seasons from 2000. Much of the credit for Charlton’s success during this period has to go to Alan Curbishley, who managed the club for 15 years, before leaving the Valley in May 2006 to take a break from football.

"Alan Curbishley - Don't Dream It's Over"

“Curbs” is recognised as Charlton’s second most successful manager, only behind the legendary Jimmy Seed, who led the South London club to two FA Cup finals in the 1940s, winning the trophy in 1947. Arguably, Curbishley’s achievement in the modern era is even more impressive, as he managed to establish Charlton as a solid mid-table side in the highly competitive Premier League on an insignificant budget. Although his team never really challenged for a Champions League place (though they did finish as high as seventh in 2004), by the same token they also comfortably managed to avoid being drawn into relegation battles.

Since those heady days, it’s been a miserable time with the club slumping to two relegations in three seasons, first from the Premier League to the Championship in 2007, then from the Championship to League One in 2009. After such a lengthy period of stability, the board then embarked on a series of ill-conceived managerial appointments, going through three coaches in the second half of 2006 alone.

The highlight of Ian Dowie’s turbulent period in charge was probably the look of astonishment on his face as he was served a writ on behalf of Simon Jordan, his previous employer at Crystal Palace, during the press conference that unveiled him as Charlton’s new head coach. After just two wins in 12 league matches, the board pressed the panic button and replaced the former Northern Ireland international with Les Reed, his assistant, who lasted only a few weeks before being unceremoniously dumped on Christmas Eve in favour of Alan Pardew.

"Bradley Wright-Phillips - Son of a Gun"

Although there was some improvement, Pardew was unable to avoid the drop. As Curbishley said, “No-one has a divine right to stay in the Premier League.” Nor indeed to bounce straight back, as Pardew discovered to his cost the following season. After a poor start to Charlton’s second campaign in the Championship, including eight successive games without a win, the club found itself in the relegation zone and Pardew left “by mutual consent” in November 2008. His replacement was Phil Parkinson, who was somewhat surprisingly appointed as permanent manager despite no discernible improvement in results during his stint as caretaker.

Little wonder that the former chairman, Richard Murray, admitted that the board had made “mistakes particularly in relation to the period following the departure of Alan Curbishley.” He can say that again. To paraphrase Oscar Wilde, “To choose one poor manager may be regarded as a misfortune; to choose four looks like carelessness.”

Not only that, but the club also threw out the cautious strategy that had served them so well in the past, as their ambitions extended to European football. To achieve that aim, they decided to hand the charismatic Dowie an enormous transfer budget, which he proceeded to waste on a selection of incredibly average players, including the likes of Djimi Traoré, Souleymane Diawara, Ben Thatcher, Andy Reid, Madjid Bougherra and Amdy Faye.

In total, the net transfer spend for the 2006/07 season amounted to an incredible £19m, according to the respected Transfermarkt website, which was more than the previous five seasons combined. Further funds were splurged on expensive loan deals for an unfit Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink and a very raw Alex Song. As Murray put it with commendable under-statement, “The simple truth is that vast sums of money were spent on players who have proved not to be successful.”

"Johnnie Jackson - Put Your Hands Up For Charlton"

To a certain extent, the board’s decision to take a few more risks was understandable, especially with a lucrative new Premier League television deal on the horizon, but it felt like a case of throwing the baby out with the bath water. To put it bluntly, Charlton got ahead of themselves, as outlined by the former Charlton midfielder Danny Murphy, “People were actually moaning at the time that we ‘only’ finished in mid-table. It’s only now that people realise how much of an achievement that was.”

To coin a phrase, be careful what you wish for. The ensuing relegation resulted in “financial turmoil” according to Murray, as there was a significant reduction in TV income, gate receipts and sponsorship deals. The problem was that Charlton had built up a Premier League infrastructure and wage bill that could not be supported on the revenue from lower leagues. As Murray explained, “In many respects, the longer a club remains in the Premier League, the more its cost base increases and relegation – even with the two-year parachute payments – still makes life difficult.”

In Charlton’s case, this meant severe financial difficulties with the club reporting a series of large losses and debts spiraling out of control. This was an all too familiar story to older fans, as the club had come very close to going out of business in 1984 after similar reckless spending, including the astonishing signing of former European Footballer of the Year Allan Simonsen from Barcelona.

"Dale Stephens - Smile Like You Mean It"

Returning to more modern times, it had become clear that Charlton required substantial funds to move forward, hence the board’s frantic search for new investors. Many names have been in the frame, including two owners who subsequently opted for other London clubs, namely Tony Fernandes (QPR) and David Sullivan (West Ham). The former Leeds United and Cardiff City chairman Peter Ridsdale was also linked, but fortunately this did not come to pass, as Charlton had already suffered enough from trying to “live the dream.”

More credibly, a bid from Swiss-based fund manager Sebastien Sainsbury was reportedly rejected, while the Dubai-based Zabeel Investments got as far as tabling an indicative cash offer of around £50 million before pulling out of negotiations in October 2008, largely due to the downturn in the global economy.

Matters came to a head in the summer of 2010, when the existing companies were wound up after an Extraordinary General Meeting, which left Richard Murray in control of a new holding company, Baton 2010 Limited. For those interested in corporate actions, this replaced CA 2010 plc (formerly Charlton Athletic plc), which was the owner of the football club, Charlton Athletic Football Company Limited.

Nevertheless, the directors still had to put £5 million into the club to avoid administration, which might sound overly dramatic, but Murray emphasised the importance of this money, “This has been a critical time for the club. Our future was uncertain and financially this was potentially one of our darkest hours.”

"Why does it always rain on me?"

Murray had effectively bought enough time to find new investors, which he managed to do four months later, when a consortium represented by popular former chief executive Peter Varney bought a controlling interest (90%) in Baton 2010 Limited via its acquisition vehicle CAFC Holdings Limited (incorporated in the offshore tax haven of the British Virgin Islands), leaving Richard Murray with a 10% stake.

The key players in the new ownership are new chairman Michael Slater, described as “a lawyer and businessman” on the club’s website, and Tony Jimenez, the ubiquitous “international property developer”, who respectively own 23% and 28% of CAFC Holdings Limited. Some concerns have been expressed about the latter’s involvement, partly based on his brief time as vice-president (player recruitment) at Newcastle United, when he clashed with then manager Kevin Keegan, and partly due to his checkered record as a director (16 of 17 companies dissolved, according to the Guardian).

However, the new men have been welcomed with open arms by the old hands at Charlton. Murray said, “I now believe I am passing the club to the right people who can secure its long-term future.” Varney added, “Charlton’s finances are not in a good state and the fans can rest assured that this is in the best interests of the club.” In addition, some continuity is ensured by the presence of both Murray and Varney on the new board.

There remain some doubts among fans, especially after the new owners rapidly back-tracked on a promise to support manager Phil Parkinson. On their arrival, Slater said, “It's certainly not our intention to make any change. Phil's done a great job. We're third in the league and that speaks for itself, so we're going to have a sit down with Phil over the next few days and we'll give him every support.”

"Michael Slater & Tony Jimenez - Welcome Interstate Managers"

Less than a week later, Parkinson was shown the door, with Slater explaining, “Clearly, improvement is needed on the field. The team has not won in the league since November and recent performances have simply not been good enough. Last night's defeat convinced us as a board that change is required now.” Of course, this move could also be construed as decisive action, though it did not actually produce the desired end result of promotion to the Championship, even if a play-off place was secured.

So what will Charlton’s strategy be going forward?

Slater has outlined a much-needed down-to-earth approach, “Our plan is to run the club on a sensible financial footing and develop a commercial plan to ensure we make progress on and off the pitch to meet the expectation of the fans. What we won’t do is create unrealistic, pie-in-the-sky expectations.” Having said that, it is clear that to achieve a sustainable model, Charlton need to gain promotion. Therefore, Slater has added, “Nobody can guarantee success, but we did not come to Charlton to run it as a League One club. It is not a viable business in this division.”

This can be seen by the rising debt levels, which nearly pushed the club over the edge. Back in 2005, Charlton actually enjoyed net funds of £4 million before that calamitous 2006/07 season drove debt up to £23 million. The last published accounts for the holding company are from 2009, when the debt was £24 million, but we can make a pretty good estimate of what the debt levels were in 2010, based on the debt reported by the football club and the notes in their accounts, which suggest that debt reached £34 million – “significant” according to Slater.

This comprised £14.6 million of corporate convertible bonds, £7 million of director loans (of which £5.3 million was added in 2010), £6.8 million of bank loans, a £5.3 million overdraft and a £0.3 million loan from the Football League.

As part of the company restructuring in August 2010, a number of steps were taken to reduce this debt burden. The bonds were converted into shares in CA 2010 plc, while the directors’ loans have been designated as interest-free unless the club is promoted and only repayable over a five-year period in the event of promotion to the Premier League. In addition, the bank loans have been renegotiated to delay the repayment dates (mainly from 2013 to 2015), though the quid pro quo is a higher interest rate: £2.5 million at 7.2%, £3.2 million at LIBOR + 2.5% and £1 million at LIBOR + 3%.

The growing debts are a natural result of the club’s unsustainable business model, which has produced a series of hefty losses since 2006, adding up to around £44 million in the last five years. In fairness, the losses have been getting smaller since the £11.5m registered in the annus horribilis of 2008, with £8 million reported in 2009 and £6.6 million in 2010, the improvement partly due to a £3 million reduction in interest payable.

As the revenue has fallen due to Charlton’s fall down the divisions, Charlton have made strenuous efforts to slash their costs in line with their new status and vastly reduced revenue. In 2007, their total expenses were £56 million, but they managed to cut this to £20 million in 2010, a reduction of 64%. This was essential as revenue fell by 74% in the same period from £36 million to just £9 million. Of course, the problem is that this reduced investment has been reflected in poor performances on the pitch.

The more astute among you will have noticed the other problem, which is that the revenue has always been insufficient to cover costs. Even if non-cash expenses such as depreciation and amortisation are excluded, the EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxation, Depreciation and Amortisation) is solidly negative, e.g. a £9 million loss in 2010.

"Meet Danny Hollands"

Losses have been compensated to some extent by profit on player sales, though the last substantial sale was Darren Bent to Tottenham in 2007. Without that £11 million profit, the 2007 loss would have been even larger than 2008 at £21 million, which is awful on a turnover of £36 million. In fact, the last time that Charlton made a big profit (£11 million) was in 2004, which was almost entirely due to the sale of Scott Parker to Chelsea.

Even the £1.4 million profit in 2005 would have been a loss without an exceptional £2.8 million insurance payment for injured players. The harsh reality is that Charlton have been living above their means for some time, so something had to give.

As a technical aside, it should be noted that the profit and loss account figures have been taken from the holding company, Charlton Athletic plc, for the years between 2005 and 2009, but this was not possible for 2010, as no accounts were issued. Instead, I have taken figures from the football club, Charlton Athletic Football Company Limited, for 2010. Looking at these two companies’ financial results in previous years indicates that any differences are immaterial, so this should be a reasonably safe approach.

What is indisputable is the catastrophic effect that the two relegations have had on Charlton’s revenue. In fact, it already started falling in the Premier League in 2007, as the club received a smaller merit reward for the lower final league position. Parachute payments over the next two seasons were not enough to prevent revenues falling by more than a third from £36 million to £24 million. However, the real damage was inflicted in 2010 by the double whammy of dropping into League One coinciding with the end of the parachute payments, so revenue plummeted to £9 million, which represents a fall of nearly 80% from the £42 million generated in 2006.

All three revenue streams have been adversely affected. Since 2006, match day income fell from £13 million to £6 million and commercial income from £7 million to £2 million, but it is television where the impact has been most significant, falling by an incredible 95% from £22 million to £1 million.

Television money in League One is mainly sourced from the Football League central distribution of £640,000 that is made to all clubs plus a solidarity payment of £108,000 from the Premier League. Both of these were scheduled to increase in 2010/11 to £656,000 and £335,000 respectively.

Obviously, there is never a good time for a football club to be relegated, but it is fair to say that Charlton’s timing was particularly bad, as they missed out on the significant growth in TV deals. As an example, they received £18 million for coming 19th in their last season in the Premier League in 2007, but Blackpool got £39 million for finishing in the same position last season. Similarly, while Charlton’s relegation was cushioned by £23 million of parachute payments, Blackpool will receive £48 million (£16 million in each of the first two years, and £8 million in each of years three and four).

This huge increase was criticised by Charlton’s former chief executive, Steve Waggott, “This will create a worrying divide for clubs in the lower leagues. Some chairmen believe the proposal has shifted the inequality in the English game further down the divisions, while others feel this has created a Premier League 2 in all but name.”

Although the real TV riches remain in the Premier League, it would still be very worthwhile for Charlton to win promotion to the Championship, as the new deal in that division is worth £4.7 million (£2.5 million central distribution plus £2.2 million solidarity payment), which is much higher than League One’s £1 million.

However, there is a cloud on the horizon in the shape of the new Football League three-year TV deal from 2012/13, which has been reduced by 26% or £23 million a season, reflecting what Football League chairman Greg Clarke called, “a challenging climate in which to negotiate television rights.” As there was no interest from BBC, ITV or even ESPN, the only serious contender was Sky, who could thus secure the package with a much lower bid.

Despite that change, television money is still the great divider between leagues. As a comparison in 2009/10, if we compare Charlton’s revenue against typical clubs in the higher leagues, e.g. Nottingham Forest in the Championship and Blackburn Rovers in the Premier League, we can very clearly see that factor at play with substantial differences between the TV revenue: Charlton £1.2 million, Forest £4.3 million and Blackburn £42.6 million. The other revenue streams are not too dissimilar. In fact, Charlton’s match day income of £5.8 million is only slightly lower than Blackburn’s £6.2 million.

The lack of a level playing field was noted by Charlton’s former chairman, Derek Chappell, after relegation to the Championship in 2008, “This demonstrates starkly the gulf between the Premier League and the Championship in financial terms due to the different levels of broadcast income.” More prosaically, the last annual report observed that the “divisional status” was the club’s principal risk, as this “has a significant impact on the level of revenue streams generated by the company and its ability to trade profitably.”

This has also been felt in match day income, partly due to attendances falling from over 26,000 in the Premier League to an average of 15,600 in League One last season and partly due to reductions in ticket prices. Even so, according to a survey this summer by the BBC, Charlton are the fifth most expensive team to watch in League One, only surpassed by Leyton Orient, Brentford, Hartlepool and Huddersfield.

In order to attract fans to The Valley, the club has employed some innovative, imaginative marketing methods, most notably the Valley Express coach service, which offers fans around Kent return transport to the stadium. When it became clear that Charlton were going to be relegated from the Premier League, the club made an offer of a free season ticket for the 2008/09 season to all season ticket holders who renewed before the end of April 2007 if Charlton gained immediate promotion back to the Premier League. More recently, their offer of “football for a fiver”, when tickets to the match against Exeter in February 2011 were priced at £5, attracted a bumper crowd of nearly 25,000.

Such initiatives have helped maintain Charlton’s crowd as one of the highest in League One. In fact, their 2010/11 average was the third best in League One, only behind Southampton and Sheffield Wednesday, and actually above 10 clubs in the Championship, including promoted Swansea City – and local rivals Crystal Palace.

The Valley is one of Charlton’s top assets, as the stadium has been extensively modernised at the cost of around £37 million and now boasts a capacity of just over 27,000. The club also has planning permission form Greenwich Council to extend the capacity to 31,000 and potentially even 40,000 if the club ever returned to the promised land of the Premier League.

Much of the work was done between 1985 and 1992, after the club was forced to leave The Valley, due to a combination of safety factors and a dispute with a former landlord over car parking. Charlton had to ground-share, first with Crystal Palace and then West Ham, before finally returning to The Valley in December 1992.

"Rolls Rhoys Wiggins"

However, although it’s great to be back home, The Valley is somewhat of a double-edged sword these days, as the costs of running such a large stadium are much higher than those incurred at other League One clubs, who tend to have much smaller grounds. It’s the same story for the splendid 37-acre training facilities in New Eltham.

As might be expected, due to the reduced exposure offered by the lower leagues, Charlton’s commercial income has also fallen away from £7 million in the Premier League to £2 million in League One. This trend was exacerbated by their shirt sponsor Llanera, a Spanish property group, going bust halfway through a 4½-year deal worth £6.6 million. Charlton have had little luck with their shirt sponsors, as All:Sports also went into administration in 2005.

The current shirt sponsors are Kent Reliance Building Society (KRBS), who signed a three-year deal starting in the 2009/10 season. The figures were not divulged beyond a “significant six-figure” annual sum, but the deal is said to be one of the largest in League One, comparing very favourably with many teams in the Championship. After many years with Joma, the kit supplier was changed to Macron last season in a four-year deal described as “the biggest kit contract in the club’s history.”

Charlton’s wage bill reflects what they have strived to do in the face of diminishing revenue, namely to implement a programme to cut costs. Since the peak in 2006, revenue has decreased by 78% (or £33 million) and the wages have more or less fallen in line by 70%, though the absolute reduction is “only” £24 million. This has produced a deeply concerning wages to turnover ratio of 112%, now that there are no more parachute payments. To place that into context, big spending Manchester City’s ratio last season was 107%.

Actually, this has always been an issue for Charlton, and this important ratio even looked unimpressive in the last two seasons in the Premier League: 82% in 2005/06 and 95% in 2006/07. Recent years have also included what the club described as “significant” pay-offs to departing players and managers, e.g. Alan Pardew reportedly received a seven-figure sum. Hence, the need for the club to offload high-earning players and make many back office staff redundant.

The trend in player amortisation, namely the annual cost of writing down the cost of buying new players, also reflects the club’s changing circumstances, as this has decreased from £6.5 million in 2007 (the last season in the Premier League) to a negligible £1.2 million in 2010.

Indeed, if we look at Charlton’s transfer activity over the last 12 seasons, it is clear that Charlton has become a selling club, largely out of necessity. In the seven years up to 2007, the club had net spend of £54 million, while in the last five years the pendulum has swung and Charlton have generated net proceeds of £37 million from the transfer market. Admittedly, most of that came in the year immediately following relegation from the Premier League, when they sold Bent, Reid, Diawara and Luke Young.

However, it is likely that any young talents developed by the club will leave sooner rather than later, unless Charlton secure promotion to a higher tier, as was seen by the sale of youth internationals Jonjo Shelvey to Liverpool for an initial £1.7 million and Carl Jenkinson to Arsenal for £1 million. That said, since the takeover there have been signs that the new owners will be more willing to loosen the purse strings in a bid to get promoted, as explained by chairman Michael Slater, “The board knows what you know – that the only way out of League One is to invest in the playing squad.”

"Jonjo Shelvey - Don't Look Back in Anger"

The players actually represent a “hidden” asset on the balance sheet, as their net book value in the accounts was only £339,000 as at June 2010, while the value in the real world is considerably higher – £9.5 million according to Transfermarkt. Overall, the club has net assets, which were reported as £2.6 million in the last available accounts for the holding company (June 2009). This included £35 million for land and buildings, primarily covering The Valley.

The 2010 accounts for the football club also note possible additional net transfer fees receivable of £4.1 million, though this is far from certain, as it depends on achievements made by some of the players sold by Charlton, including the number of appearances, trophies won and international caps.

Nevertheless, the cash flow statement demonstrates how important the directors’ support and commitment has been to the club. Every year since 2006 the cash flow from operating activities has been negative and only improves if the club sells players. Incidentally, the relatively high cash inflow from player sales in 2008 is largely due to Darren Bent’s transfer, even though that took place in 2007, as the cash was only received in the 2007/08 accounting year. Actually, payments for a transfer of that magnitude are normally made in installments, so cash from a major player sale is rarely available immediately.

The directors’ support has been crucial in keeping Charlton going on several occasions, such as the £5.5 million share issue in 2005 to “support investment in the first team squad”, the £5 million loans made in 2007 and the £14.6 million convertible corporate bond issue in 2008 that allowed the club to repay short-term bank loans and provided it with working capital. Since then, the directors have provided a further £7 million in loans. Interest payments on the loans and the bonds have been suspended, even though they have been booked in the profit and loss account. In addition, Richard Murray provided £3 million of funding for working capital in August 2010.

In short, it is unlikely that the club could have survived without these regular injections of cash from the directors.

So what does the future hold for Charlton Athletic?

Given the new owners’ track record to date, the chances are that they will continue to follow a prudent strategy, though if Charlton are still among the League One leaders around Christmas, it would not be that great a surprise if the board splashed some cash in the January transfer window in order to improve their chances of getting over the finishing line. They would desperately want to avoid a repeat of their play-off heartache by securing an automatic promotion spot, as this club really needs to be in the Championship.

"Matt Taylor - Heads Held High"

That said, the club has to be conscious of the new scheme to be introduced in the Football League from the 2012/13 season that is designed to lower spending on wages. This is a version of UEFA’s Financial Fair Play regulations called the Salary Costs Management Protocol (SCMP) that already operates in League Two, where clubs are only allowed to spend 60% of their turnover on wages. This will be reduced to 55% and also apply to League One. Championship clubs will not be allowed to spend more than they earn.

Charlton are well aware of the future restrictions, as confirmed by chief executive Stephen Kavanagh, “In signing 16 players this summer, we’ve had to take wage capping into account.” Even though they have savagely cut their payroll, Charlton would still have to halve their 2009/10 wage bill of £10.2 million to be in line with the proposed rules, which would be a major challenge. Promotion would be a far better alternative, though there are obviously a few other clubs that will have say in that particular discussion.

Equally important to Charlton’s prospects will be their academy, which has been praised by a number of knowledgeable observers. Even though it is difficult to compete with the larger London clubs, Charlton can offer their youngsters a Premier League standard training ground and an opportunity to play with many of their academy graduates going on to feature in the first team, such as Chris Solly and Scott Wagstaff. On their heels, there are England U17 internationals Jordan Cousins and Diego Poyet, son of Gus, the former Spurs and Chelsea player.

"Big Ben Hamer"

Michael Slater confirmed the focus on youth, “I can’t stress enough the importance of our investment in scouting and the academy – it’s essential for the club’s success in the medium to long term.” His views were echoed by Stephen Kavanagh, “We cannot ignore the fact that investing in the academy provides a long-term financial benefit for the club.”

Whether the revised compensation scheme under the new Elite Player Performance Plan (EPPP) will damage this strategy, only time will tell, but it does appear that the days of a young star moving for large sums might be coming to an end. However, Kavanagh is confident that Charlton “can make the most of the new system.” Although it would have meant receiving less money from Sean McGinty’s move to Manchester United two years ago, he pointed out that he Premier League had also agreed to increase its grant for Football League clubs' youth set-ups by around £300,000 per year.

He added, "With no guarantees that any club will produce a player talented enough to be wanted by the bigger clubs, this is a significant sum, because clubs are effectively being paid run to their academies, whether they produce players to be sold on or not.” In other words, a bird in the hand might be worth two in the bush.

"Michael Morrison - Pressure Point"

In many ways, Charlton’s decline is a cautionary tale to those in the Premier League. Even though they were considered to be a well-run club, one season of madness set them on a vicious downward spiral, as they struggled to cope with the effects of relegation.

However, this is club with considerable potential, otherwise it would not have attracted new investors at a time when so many other clubs are effectively in the shop window. Not only do they have a good stadium and training ground, but they also have a sizeable fan base and a large catchment area. Furthermore, the government is funding considerable regeneration in their neighbourhood, including building many new homes and improving travel infrastructure.

After a hideous few years, Charlton fans may once again allow themselves to look to the future with a degree of optimism. That’s certainly Michael Slater’s view, “It wasn’t so many years ago that this club was a regular in the Premier League. There’s no reason why that can’t happen (again) in the near future.”