Rabu, 05 Januari 2011

Grounds For Concern At Schalke?


Despite winning their last three matches before Germany’s winter break, including a notable success against reigning champions Bayern Munich, this season has been a mixed bag for Schalke 04. They have struggled in the Bundesliga, making a desperately poor start when they lost their first four games, including a crushing home defeat in the derby against bitter rivals Borussia Dortmund, but have cruised through their Champions League group, finishing ahead of Lyon and Benfica to secure a very winnable last 16 tie against an inconsistent Valencia.

Their indifferent form in the domestic league has been made worse by the dazzling displays of Dortmund, who sit triumphantly at the top of the table and appear to be unstoppable in their pursuit of the title. In a way, this season has been the polar opposite of last year, when the newly arrived coach Felix Magath led a fairly ordinary Schalke side to a surprising runners-up position. Thus, expectations were fairly high this season for a team that was expensively reinforced over the summer with the addition of an exciting new strike force made up of veteran Spanish forward Raul from Real Madrid and the prolific Dutch goal scorer Klaas-Jan Huntelaar from Milan, backed up by the creativity of the promising midfielder Jose Manuel Jurado from Atletico Madrid.

Given Schalke’s angst-ridden history, their fans are probably not overly surprised with the unpredictable nature of their exhibitions this season, as they have long since become accustomed to expecting the unexpected of the Royal Blues. In fact, this is a team of many contradictions. By anyone’s standards, Schalke 04 is a huge club, one of the most popular in Germany with over 84,000 members, that has won the championship an impressive seven times. However, all of their titles were secured long ago between 1934 and 1958, the last victory coming five years before the formation of the Bundesliga in 1963.

"Raul in an unfamiliar blue shirt"

Since those heady days, they have come to be regarded as notorious under-achievers, who are liable to press the self-destruct button once they are in sight of an elusive Bundesliga title. No matter how big a points lead Schalke build up during the course of a season, something always seems to prevent them from being ahead when they reach the finishing line, so in the last decade they have finished second on no less than four occasions.

While last season’s disappointment was compensated by the knowledge that Magath’s unheralded team had performed a minor miracle in coming so close, previous failures had been heartbreaking for Schalke’s patient fans. Their team had been seven points clear in 2007 before throwing the title away with three consecutive defeats, but the most agonising moment occurred in 2001 when Schalke were denied by a Bayern Munich equaliser against Hamburg that arrived in the fourth minute of injury time with the very last kick of the final game – from a hotly disputed indirect free-kick.

Throughout this barren period, the Schalke supporters have been nothing short of sensational. Even when it became clear during last season’s home defeat to Werder Bremen that die Knappen would once again end up as Bundesliga bridesmaids, the fans continued to serenade the players and coach, forcing them out for an emotional lap of honour. As WAZ wrote, “No champion can celebrate so beautifully.”

In a bid to reach the next level and avoid similar disappointment, Schalke have splashed the cash this summer. In fact, they have spent more than any other club in the Bundesliga with only Wolfsburg, backed by the mighty Volkswagen, coming anywhere close to their net spend of €19 million, which comprised €36 million of purchases (mainly Huntelaar €14 million and Jurado €13 million), partly mitigated by €17 million of sales (Rafinha to Genoa for €9 million and Heiko Westermann to Hamburg for €7.5 million). Those figures do not include Raul, who arrived on a free transfer, but whose two-year contract will still cost Schalke at least €8 million, based on his reported salary of €4 million a year.

This expensive investment in the squad was justified by Schalke’s automatic qualification for the group stages of the Champions League, which will bring in at least €20 million additional revenue, but the largesse was still somewhat surprising, given Magath’s comments last season, “No matter how well we are doing, we have to keep an eye on our finances. As far as transfers are concerned, we have to retain a sense of proportion. Everyone knows we don’t have much money, which is why we have to be careful when making investments.”

Indeed, when the club’s board announced that Magath had been given a €30 million transfer budget, many fans did not react with the customary delight, but were instead worried that the club was going to over-extend itself financially, which would once again raise the spectre of bankruptcy that had been narrowly avoided in the past via urgent cash injections from a plethora of varied sources. This has left supporters rather nervous and uncertain over the club’s financial situation, hence the investment in new players was seen as a cause for concern as much as celebration.

"The Night of the Hunter"

The supporters’ caution is understandable, as Schalke have been beset with financial problems over the past few years. They really thought they had it made when they arranged an €85 million bond in 2002 with the investment bank Schechter & Co, the largest club bond in Europe until then. At that time, this was regarded as an exciting financial instrument with analysts pointing to similar offerings at the likes of Leeds United, Newcastle United, Southampton and Leicester City as evidence of its viability. In hindsight, we know that in reality this was no more than a gigantic loan, securitized on future gate receipts – a poisoned chalice that has not worked out well at any of those clubs.

In Schalke’s case, the money was used to fund an extravagant spending spree with two main areas of investment: a palatial new stadium and a team fit to grace that modern arena. Such high expenditure is nothing new for Schalke. Indeed, in 2007 the club boasted that it had invested well over €400 million in the Veltins Arena, infrastructure (offices and training complex) and players since 1994.

In the following year they admitted that making these investments simultaneously “obviously took a tremendous effort”, but they still allowed themselves a touch of hubris by adding, “it is paying off more and more.” This was a reference to Schalke’s achievement in the 2007/08 Champions League, when they got past the group stage for the first time in the club’s history, only being narrowly defeated by Barcelona in the quarter-finals.

"Jurado keeps his eye on the ball"

Of course, this is the dilemma facing all football clubs. While they might be tempted to try to buy success, they need “to strike a balance between financial consolidation and continued progress on the field of play”, as stated on Schalke’s own website. However, it is obvious that winning performances on the pitch can drive revenue growth or, as former Schalke CFO Josef Schnusenberg explained, “It was clear to us that the kind of success we had last year would help us to reduce our liabilities much faster.”

The club’s former general manager, Andreas Müller, explained that the business plan depended on Schalke achieving at least third place in the Bundesliga every season, thus sharing in the riches of the Champions League. This is why they have put so much money into the squad, especially during the tenure of the previous general manager, Rudi Assauer, wonderfully nicknamed “Cheroot Rudi” after his cigar smoking habit. Such a growth strategy can make sense, but it comes at a price, not just in terms of transfer fees, but also a high wage bill. It is also a major gamble, as no club is guaranteed to qualify for the Champions League, especially in the topsy-turvy Bundesliga.

Nevertheless, Schalke have not hesitated to spend money in the past few years. Since the turn of the millennium, there have been only two years where they were not net buyers. In that period, they had a net spend of nearly €100 million (purchases of €161 million less sales of €62 million), a huge amount for a Bundesliga club and only exceeded by Bayern Munich and Wolfsburg. As the chairman recently explained, “Schalke 04 will not become a saving club. The pitch remains the foundation of our activity.”

In fairness, the transfer expenditure is higher in years when the finances have received a boost, like 2002/03 after the bond was issued and 2010/11 after they qualified for the Champions League, but their record in the market has been patchy to say the least with a limited return on the investment in players like Jefferson Farfan (€10 million), Christian Poulsen (€8 million), Orlando Engelaar (€6 million), Rafinha (€5 million) and Ze Roberto (€3 million). They also let Mesut Ozil go to Werder Bremen after a falling-out with management for the paltry fee of €4 million, only to see him shine at the 2010 World Cup, resulting in a €15 million sale to Real Madrid just two years later.

When you see the impact that Champions League revenue has on Schalke’s revenue, their strategy becomes a little more understandable. This was most evident in 2008, when the club reported record revenues, very largely thanks to €27 million from UEFA due to their Champions League run, which did not include €3 million additional gate receipts. On the other hand, Peter Peters, the board member with responsibility for finance and administration, ascribed the significant €23 million reduction in 2009 revenue to “failing to qualify for a European competition.”

The former CFO Schnusenberg actually said that future revenue growth could only be generated by European competition, as the potential for increases in advertising and ticketing had been virtually exhausted. That might have been slightly exaggerated, but the three German clubs in last year’s Champions League certainly did coin it: Bayern Munich earned €45 million, Wolfsburg €26 million and Stuttgart €23 million. In Schalke’s case, it might be too simplistic to say that the club makes a profit when it qualifies for the Champions League, breaks even if it plays in the Europa League and makes a loss with no European competition, but it’s not too far from the truth.

The other main reason why Schalke are struggling financially is the cost of constructing their sparkling new stadium, which opened in 2001. Holding 61,500 spectators, the Veltins Arena is one of the most modern stadiums in Europe, boasting a pitch that can slide outside the stadium, a retractable roof and a giant hanging scoreboard, but it cost a staggering €191 million with finance being raised entirely from the private sector. This meant that Schalke had to pay over €20 million every year in interest charges and repayments, which is a huge sum for a club whose annual turnover averaged around €125 million in the last six years.

"No stadium blues"

Although the new stadium has increased revenue, there is limited scope to raise ticket prices, due to the staunch resistance of German fans to paying too much to watch football. Similarly, the anticipated boom in hosting non-sporting events has not really happened, as there is so much competition from other locations. It very much looks like the club would have been better off going for a cheaper alternative, as they appear to have badly miscalculated the stadium’s revenue potential. This drain on resources was exacerbated by investment in other infrastructure, such as training facilities, medical centre, new offices, club shop, etc. Moving to a new stadium can be financially beneficial, e.g. Arsenal’s switch to the Emirates, but it should not be considered a panacea, capable of curing all financial ills.

The policy of investing in the squad, while at the same time significantly upgrading the club’s facilities, has resulted in uncomfortably high debt levels, the eight highest among football clubs worldwide according to Forbes (though I would question their numbers). For some strange reason, the club seemed almost proud of this approach with Schnusenberg proclaiming a couple of years ago, “We have used debt financing to take Schalke 04 to the position it is in now.” To be fair to him, at that stage the club had been reducing its liabilities (from €130 million in 2006 to €106 million in 2007), but these have been on a rising trend ever since then.

We have to be quite careful here when discussing Schalke’s debt, as there are two factors that complicate matters. First, most commentators refer to Schalke’s total liabilities, which includes debt plus other payables such as money owing on transfers and trade creditors. Second, the figures quoted sometimes refer only to the football club, but on other occasions are those from the Schalke Group.

Let’s try to make it easy by looking at the last published accounts (as at December 2009), when the football club’s liabilities stood at €135 million, including €88 million of debt, made up of €67 million outstanding on the bond and €21 million bank loans. That essentially covers the cost of the football business, such as buying and paying players, plus facilities. To that sum, we need to add another €114 million, primarily money owed for the stadium, which gives total group liabilities of €249 million.

Whatever the exact figures, there are a couple of important points that can be made without fear of contradiction, namely that the debt is far too big for a club of Schalke’s size and that it is still increasing. The key question, as Schnusenberg himself said so presciently a few years ago, is “whether the club is in a position to service this debt.” He went on to caution, “To achieve that, it is necessary to increase revenue. If that does not work, then we have a problem.” Well, yes, can’t really argue with that.

Actually, although the debt has obviously become a massive issue, it is not really the club’s biggest problem, which is liquidity, namely the ability to cover the running costs, such as paying the players, suppliers and the taxman. Germany’s leading business daily, Handelsblatt, reported that many invoices were allegedly paid late, using information from credit agency, Dun & Bradstreet.

"Farfan for the common man"

This is where the numbers reported in the profit and loss account can be very misleading. Although the revenue streams look good on paper, much of the cash from those income streams has already been utilised or pledged to others, including future gate receipts, sponsorship income and stadium naming rights. As an example, the club signed a significant shirt sponsorship deal with Russian gas producer Gazprom worth up to €125 million over the life of that contract, but most of this money (the fixed element) was received upfront, so hardly any cash will be received in future years, even though the annual income will be reported in the profit and loss account. A similar deal was done with kit supplier Adidas.

A shell company was formed to handle the latter transaction, called FC Schalke 04-Service GmbH, which is just one of the countless subsidiaries that make up the Schalke Group. Unlike, say, Borussia Dortmund, the club is not listed on the stock exchange, so does not have to publish consolidated accounts for the whole network of companies. This lack of transparency is a significant problem confronting analysts who want to review Schalke’s financial position, as they can never be quite sure that they are seeing the whole picture. The holding company owns companies covering the stadium, catering, ticketing, museum, licensing rights and the old ground, but that’s merely the tip of the iceberg.

"Rakitic: it's a celebration"

This intricate inter-company structure allows Schalke to seemingly create income in the football club out of thin air, though all they are doing is passing money from one group company to another. Nothing illegal there, of course, but it could certainly be described as creative accounting. There are numerous examples. In 2003, the old Park stadium was bought for a nominal sum, then revalued to €16 million, which was booked as “exceptional income.” Similar revaluation of companies formed to handle rights marketing and catering produced another “exceptional income” of €66 million in 2004, which miraculously turned a €23 million loss into a €43 million profit.

No wonder Schnusenberg said, “We live from hand to mouth.” It’s all done with smoke and mirrors, which does not exactly inspire confidence in the financials, especially as the club has already been investigated for accounting fraud (resulting in a small fine). It’s like a grand game of pass the parcel, but in this case nobody knows exactly what will happen when the music stops. It may be a little unfair, but when striving to review these accounts, I can’t help but think of Sir Walter Scott’s famous quote, “Oh, what a tangled web we weave, when first we practice to deceive.”

With those health warnings in mind, it is difficult to be confident about the strength of the balance sheet, even though this looks fine for the football club, as assets exceed liabilities by around €30 million in 2009. However, we know that does not represent the whole story by any means and the last available balance sheet for the Schalke Group showed negative equity of €56 million, which means that the group is technically insolvent.

"Metzelder seems a little unsure of his position"

In fairness, there are some legitimate “hidden” reserves, as the real market value of the players (€141 million according to Transfermarkt) is significantly higher than that reported in the balance sheet (€31 million as at December 2009). Although we are not comparing apples with apples here, because of the timing difference, there is clearly considerable value here – but only if players are sold (which is not always a good idea).

To be fair, Schalke have taken some action to reduce their debts. In October 2009, the club agreed to sell Gesellschaft für Energie und Wirtschaft (GEW) a 50% stake in the stadium for €25.5 million (with the possibility of buying these shares back in the next ten years), but even this deal was not without controversy. First, GEW is a wholly owned subsidiary of the city of Gelsenkirchen, so this looks very much like a bailout funded by the taxpayer. Second, as this sale leaves Schalke with only 40.7% of the stadium, the Arena company will no longer appear in the consolidated balance sheet, thus further reducing visibility of the club’s financial position.

On the plus side, Peters stated that the contract meant “that funding is in place for the whole of the 2009/10 season. A further sale of rights, shares or players will not be necessary.” What did his predecessor say about hand to mouth arrangements? Meet the new boss – same as the old boss.

"Neuer - the only way is up"

Another element in the debt restructuring is the raising of €10 million of capital via a supporters’ bond, paying 5.5% interest and redeemable in six years’ time in 2016. Other German clubs have already issued similar bonds, including Cologne, Arminia Bielefeld and Alemannia Aachen, but this is hardly a badge of honour.

Most importantly, in the first half of 2010 the club managed to redeem the remaining €65 million from the 2002 bond that “had been limiting us in our actions” and to re-finance the debt with a ”major international bank” at lower interest rates, saving around €2 million a year. Peters gave this the full monty, proclaiming that “the shackles that have restricted us are history”. More worryingly for Schalke supporters, he claimed that this deal was done “in order to preserve the club’s independence.”

Schalke’s financial woes do make you wonder just how effective in practice are the licensing rules of the German Football League (DFL) that are supposed to regulate the finances of football clubs. After all, when Schalke were granted an unconditional license, Peters argued, “The outcome of the appraisal procedure is further evidence that we are on the right track financially.” While it is true that controls are tighter in Germany than other countries, the controls are clearly not flawless. The reality is that the licensing is primarily focused on a club’s ability to finance the next 12 months, as confirmed by Christian Seifert, the Bundesliga chief executive, “The key issue is to see if a club has the liquidity to allow it to play the upcoming season.”

"Magath - his way or the highway"

This means that the amount of debt is not necessarily an issue for the licensing. That said, Seifert announced before this season that there would be a stronger emphasis on debt in the future, “Until now we had the rule in the Bundesliga that if a club has negative equity, then it is not allowed to get worse the next season. From this season, a club must improve negative equity by 10% a season.” However, it is questionable whether even this escalation will affect Schalke, as the DFL only reviews the balance sheet of the club, not those of its affiliates.

Parallels have been drawn with the financial woes at neighbours Borussia Dortmund, who suffered a series of large losses a few years ago. Indeed, when the Revierderby was played a year ago, Süddeutsche Zeitung described it as “the old champions of debt meeting the new ones.” However, Magath dismissed such talk, “It's a completely unsound comparison. Dortmund were already on the stock exchange and had thus used up all their options. Even though we don't have money to burn at the moment, we do have a number of assets on our side, such as the stadium and the marketing rights.” The problem is that it’s far from clear that the club does still possess these assets, as they now only have a minority interest in the stadium and a lot of the marketing income has been pledged to others.

Bearing in mind all those caveats, up until last year, the club’s profit and loss account looked reasonably healthy. I should note that these figures have been provided by the club and cover the company FC Gelsenkirchen-Schalke 04 E.V., so are not the full group accounts. However, I have seen the Group figures for 2007 and 2008 and the differences are relatively immaterial, at least in terms of the bottom line: 2007 profit – football club €12.6 million, group €12.3 million; 2008 profit – football club €0.5 million, group €1.9 million.

The excellent profit reported in 2007 is largely due to participation in the Champions League. In stark contrast, absence from Europe had a significant adverse impact on the 2009 results, which plunged to a hefty loss of €16.8 million, provoking supervisory board chairman Clemens Tönnies to comment, “The 2009 financial year was anything but a cause for celebration.” The outlook is more positive and the club believes that it “could return to the black” this year. Any guesses why? That’s right – qualification for the Champions League in the 2010/11 season.

In fairness, EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxation, Depreciation and Amortisation) has been positive for the last five years, albeit declining, implying that the club does at least generate good revenue streams. That is indeed the case with Schalke featuring in the Deloittes Money League list of top 20 clubs by revenue for the last seven years.

Despite no European competition in the 2008/09 season, Schalke still occupy 16th position in the table with €124 million, just ahead of Werder Bremen and Borussia Dortmund, though behind Bayern Munich and Hamburg. Of course, their turnover is still a considerable distance behind the leading clubs with Real Madrid (€401 million) and Barcelona (€366 million), earning around three times as much, largely due to their gigantic TV deals. Schalke’s TV revenue is among the smallest, while match day revenue is also relatively low, which emphasises the importance of commercial revenue. Indeed, this represents very nearly half of Schalke’s total revenue, a proportion only surpassed by Borussia and Bayern.

The eagle-eyed among you will have noticed that the Money League revenue figures are different from those in Schalke’s profit and loss account, which is due to two factors: (a) Schalke’s annual reporting period covers a calendar year rather than a conventional football season; (b) the Money League revenue excludes items defined as revenue in German accounts, such as profit on player sales.

Schalke should be praised for growing their revenue quite well (36% in five years), especially as match day income has remained flat. Commercial income has increased by a third to €61 million, but media revenue is the main swing factor, more than doubling from €16 million in 2004 to €34 million in 2009. When Champions League is included, like in 2008, this revenue stream is even higher (€56 million).

Nevertheless, commercial revenue remains most important, as is often the case with German clubs. A large population, supported by packed stadiums and an extensive free-to-air TV network, makes this a very attractive market for sponsors. Former CFO Schnusenberg had no doubts over the value of maximising commercial opportunities, “It’s very important to us. In Germany, we do not have rich owners, like Chelsea with Abramovich. Competing against them for us is like David against Goliath.” Indeed, Schalke’s commercial revenue is amazingly the eighth highest in Europe, ahead of consistently successful teams like Inter, Lyon and Arsenal.

The club benefits from a number of long-term contracts, such as its partnership with sports rights agency Infront Germany, which runs until the end of the 2017/18 season. Aside from perimeter advertising sales, this includes co-operation in marketing the Veltins Arena. Infront are big players in Germany, having similar agreements with Werder Bremen, Wolfsburg and Bochum.

Schalke also signed a very good shirt sponsorship deal with Gazprom until 2011/12, following former German Chancellor Gerard Schröder putting in a good word with his old buddy Vladimir Putin, though descriptions of the amount vary: €12 million a year (FourFourTwo), €100 million over 5.5 years (Wikipedia) and €125 million over five years (Financial Times). What is clear that the club is unlikely to receive the full amount, as much of the deal is performance related, with a club representative admitting, “The total only exists in theory. That sum can only be attained if we win everything.” Even so, this deal still compares very favourably with clubs in other leagues, being higher than the best shirt sponsorships in both Italy and France.

The kit supplier Adidas has extended its partnership to 2017/18, also covering marketing and merchandising, while the stadium naming rights deal signed with the brewer Veltins runs until 2015. Even the former shirt sponsor, insurance company Victoria, will remain as “a partner for the club and fans” until 2012 after handing over the reins to Gazprom.

The other side of the coin shows Schalke’s extremely low television revenue of €34 million, which is the second lowest in the Money League. The absence of European football obviously did not help in 2009, but the fundamental challenge facing Schalke arises from the small Bundesliga TV contract, relative to European rivals, as evidenced by the three last places in the Money League being occupied by German clubs.

The current deal runs for four years from 2009 to 2013 and is worth €1.65 billion for domestic rights, which works out as €412 million per season. This is slightly higher than the previous three-year contract, which was worth just over €400 million a year, though that did represent a 40% increase on the preceding agreement. The Bundesliga deal is about 40% lower than the €700 million received per season by the Premier League for domestic rights, which is bad enough, but is nothing compared to the disparity on overseas rights, where the Bundesliga only receives €40 million against €550 million for the Premier League. On a lesser scale, it’s a similar situation in Italy, which earns almost €90 million for overseas rights.

Although the new Bundesliga deal represented a double-digit percentage increase, it is still a paltry sum for what Christian Seifert described as “a very attractive product with the largest number of players at the World Cup after the Premier League.” As a result, German clubs receive far less TV money than their English counterparts, e.g. Bayern earned €70 million in 2008/09, which was considerably less than Manchester United’s €117 million.

For the sake of German clubs’ balance sheets, not to mention their competitiveness on the international stage, it is to be hoped that the Bundesliga makes the most of the national team’s success in South Africa and starts marketing itself better globally, as the situation is unlikely to improve domestically. Kirch went bankrupt and even Rupert Murdoch’s Sky Deutschland has struggled to attract new subscribers.

"This is Schalke!"

It’s quite the opposite story for Schalke, who continue to sell out the Veltins Arena, despite raising prices by a average of 4%. Although this will bring in an additional €2-3 million a year, Schalke’s match day revenue is a long way below many of its rivals, even though they have the sixth highest attendances in Europe, only behind, Barcelona, Borussia, Real Madrid, Manchester United and Bayern, due to the moderate ticket prices.

Standing tickets cost just €15, while the club is justifiably proud of the high proportion of tickets it offers at low prices: 31,000 at €25 or less. In addition, Schalke is the only club in the Bundesliga to offer free parking. However, this does mean that clubs like Manchester United and Arsenal earn more than four times as much match day revenue than Schalke.

Given that there are more than 11,000 on the waiting list for season tickets, it does beg the question of why the club does not further increase ticket prices, but this would be completely contrary to German football culture. As Peter Peters explained, “The fans say we only have success because they are here and they create this fantastic atmosphere. It's important. It's not like a jeans shop where people can just go somewhere else. Schalke is their life.” More prosaically, such a move would also damage the relationship with sponsors, who like to see full stadiums, so could end up actually losing money.

Schalke’s costs are around €122 million a year (€140 million including amortisation) with the largest element obviously being wages at €63 million. This is reportedly the second most expensive squad in the Bundesliga, only behind Bayern, but there are clear signs that the club seeks to control this expense. They have maintained the wages to turnover ratio in a very respectable range between 46% and 56% over the last few years, reducing the wage bill last year by €6 million when the revenue dipped. Part of this reduction is because the contracts are very performance related, so poor results on the pitch are at least reflected in lower salaries – every cloud has a silver lining.

That said, the frequent changes in coach have come at a price with former managers like Mirko Slomka and Fred Rütten remaining on the payroll long after they left the club. It’s difficult to say what will happen to the wage bill going forward. Although the club has suggested that it will cut salaries by at least €10 million, the cost for Magath and his management entourage cannot be cheap. Nevertheless, many of the expensive players’ contracts run out in 2011, so there will be an opportunity to address this quite soon. If the club could reduce the wage bill to, say, the level of Borussia Dortmund at €48 million (€15 million lower), that would go a long way to making the club more sustainable.

"Höwedes - an asset in both senses of the word"

Another option, albeit an unpalatable one, would be to sell some of the players to raise much-needed cash, as most of the family silver has already been sold. Indeed, there has already been plenty of speculation over the future of goalkeeper Manuel Neuer and defender Benedikt Höwedes. However, this would potentially hurt the team’s prospects of European qualification, thus losing those funds, so it’s a double-edged sword. Furthermore, if clubs suspect that sales are inspired by financial difficulties, they might well exploit this weakness by making much-reduced offers.

The club is undoubtedly making all the right noises, stating that “the era of debt making must be over.” After the 2009 results were released, they announced, “A difficult year has been safely navigated and the foundations for a successful future have been laid.” With regular participation in Europe, that might be the case, though it will be difficult to know for sure without more transparency. Let's hope so, as few would begrudge the long-suffering legions of fans of this grand old club some over-due success.

Selasa, 14 Desember 2010

Newcastle United's Finances In Black And White


Just when Newcastle United fans could be forgiven for thinking that their club had abandoned its frequent attempts to act as the setting for one of football’s longest running soap operas, their rotund owner Mike Ashley struck again, sacking the likeable Chris Hughton, who had guided the team to promotion last season on a shoestring budget, and replacing him with Alan Pardew, a man whose track record provides little support for his boundless confidence. In their first season back in the Premier League, Newcastle were handily placed in mid-table, having demolished local rivals Sunderland 5-1 and securing away victories against the likes of Arsenal and Everton, not to mention an impressive win at Chelsea in the Carling Cup.

For some inexplicable reason, Ashley suddenly decided that Newcastle needed a manager “with more experience”, even though more rational observers might point out that Hughton had obviously acquired more experience than when Ashley settled on him as permanent manager at the beginning of last season. As the local paper, the Evening Chronicle, wrote, “To say the appointment of Alan Pardew is bewildering and perplexing to Newcastle United fans is an understatement.”

Of course, Ashley is no stranger to putting his foot in it and on occasions it has felt like he is on a one man campaign to demonstrate that the Premier League’s fit and proper person test is equally useless for English owners as those arriving from foreign shores. Since June 2007, when Ashley bought the club, his tenure has been an almost textbook example of how to alienate supporters with a series of embarrassing episodes being gleefully reported across the media.

"No, thank you, Chris"

The signs were far from promising right off the bat, as Ashley’s purchase bore all the hallmarks of an impulse buy, when he failed to perform the standard due diligence on the club’s books. In fairness, he might have felt that he had to move quickly, but businessmen who fail to look before they leap often end up in a dangerous place. Caveat emptor. He then compounded this error by bringing in the “Cockney mafia”, but their origins weren’t the real issue, rather this was a management team that possessed virtually no experience of running a football club.

Although chairman Chris Mort was popular with fans, his replacement Derek Llambias was previously director of three London casinos, while Tony Jimenez, briefly appointed vice-president responsible for player recruitment, was a director of a small sports agency. To add insult to injury, the man with the most inappropriate surname in football, Dennis Wise, was then recruited as Executive Director of Football. This is the man famously described by Sir Alex Ferguson as a man capable of starting a fight in an empty room, though he’s also proved to be pretty tasty outdoors, as evidenced by his conviction for assaulting a taxi driver.

Wise’s appointment undermined the then manager Kevin Keegan, most obviously with the signings of players such as Xisco and Ignacio Gonzalez, which “King Kev” had not approved. This led to Keegan’s acrimonious departure and a legal case in which the club’s explanation of the circumstances behind his exit was described by the tribunal as “profoundly unsatisfactory.”

"You don't know what you're doing"

Then there was the ill advised plan to sell off the naming rights to St James’ Park, which was guaranteed to upset the Toon Army. As was the brilliant idea to put the club up for sale on its website, when bidders were invited to send applications to an e-mail address, which was only a small step away from those humorous eBay auctions of any football club languishing in the doldrums. In fact, Ashley has tried to sell Newcastle United twice, only to withdraw the club from the market on each occasion. Potential purchasers were presumably put off by the tagline, “One careless owner.”

Of course, the lowest grade on Ashley’s report card must be reserved for over-seeing relegation from the Premier League after 16 seasons in the top flight, when the club enjoyed one of the highest budgets in the league. This was hardly surprising after a series of frankly baffling managerial appointments, starting with the overly sentimental choice of Keegan, followed by Joe Kinnear, who had been out of the game for four years, and culminating in local hero, Alan Shearer, who arrived straight from the Match of the Day sofa confident of keeping the club up, but proceeded to win only once in his eight matches in charge.

This managerial merry-go-round was all the more surprising, as Ashley had pinpointed this as one of the factors behind Newcastle’s perilous state when he arrived, “One of the reasons that the club was so in debt when I took over was due to transfer dealings caused by managers moving in and out of the club. Every time there was a change in manager millions would be spent on new players and millions would be lost as players were sold. It can't keep on working like that. It is just madness.”

"Welcome to the madness"

Maybe that way of thinking explains Ashley’s apparently crazy decision to go “all in”, rather than hedging his bets, by handing Pardew a five-year contract, which is surely the longest in the Premier League. Certainly, Pardew was singing from the same song sheet as his new boss during his first press conference, “I intend to focus on developing exciting young players through the club’s excellent academy and development squad, and I know the board here at St James’ Park is very committed to that too.” They sure are, having drawn up a five-year plan with the objective of breaking-even by the 2015/16 season.

Part of this strategy is for the club to “buy clever”, rather than rely on expensive signings. Ashley outlined his vision a couple of years ago, “My plan and my strategy for Newcastle is different. It has to be. Arsenal is the shining example in England of a sustainable business model. It takes time. It can't be done overnight. Newcastle has therefore set up an extensive scouting system. We look for young players, for players in foreign leagues who everyone does not know about. We try and stay ahead of the competition. We search high and low looking for value, for potential that we can bring on and for players who will allow Newcastle to compete at the very highest level, but who don't cost the earth.”

This approach is evidenced by the purchases made in this summer’s transfer window, when Hughton had to largely make do with a series of free transfers and loans, as the club could not afford to spend big money on new players. Dan Gosling and Sol Campbell arrived on free transfers from Everton and Arsenal respectively, while James Perch cost only £1 million from Nottingham Forest. However, Newcastle’s frugal policy can still work, the best example perhaps being the impressive midfielder Cheick Tiote, who cost just £3.5 million from Twente Enschede, while the loan signing of the skilful winger Hatem Ben Arfa from Marseille was looking inspired before his unfortunate injury.

Joe McLean, partner at accountants Grant Thornton, praised the new strategy, “It’s eminently sensible. It’s not a message that supporters want to hear, but I think it’s a sensible statement if you’re concerned about the long-term future of Newcastle United.” Indeed, the fans appear to be taking a much more realistic stance these days, understanding that the club faces some difficult financial challenges.

These are evident when you look at the club’s accounts, where they have reported large losses for the last four years. The last time Newcastle made a profit was back in 2005 – and that was a very small one of £620,000. Since then, the club has registered pre-tax losses of £12 million in 2006, £34 million in 2007, £20 million in 2008 and £15 million in 2009. Unfortunately, we don’t yet have the 2010 accounts (Newcastle tend to publish these quite late), but the loss will certainly be even larger following relegation to the Championship.

Although operating profit, defined as EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxation, Depreciation and Amortisation), was positive for many years, it has been steadily declining and actually turned into an £8 million loss in 2009, due to the lack of revenue growth and the explosion in the wages. It is obvious that the club has been living beyond its means, which has been exacerbated by the rise in non-cash expenses, mainly player amortisation, and a raft of exceptional items. Once these are taken into consideration, the 2010 loss rises to £38 million, though this has been partially compensated by £23 million of profit on player sales, mainly James Milner, Shay Given and Charles N’Zogbia.

Profit from activity in the transfer market has been an important driver of Newcastle’s financial performance, so that the very high loss of £34 million in 2007 was mostly due to the £2 million loss on player sales that year, primarily arising from Jean-Alain Boumsong’s move to Juventus.

"Not just Andy Carroll's landlord"

Actually, the 2007 loss would have been even higher without a positive contribution from exceptional items. These included the usual substantial payments for changes in management £1 million plus £2 million compensation to directors for the loss of office and £3 million of costs relating to an aborted financing project and takeover bids that had to be written-off, but were mitigated by £7 million of compensation received following Michael Owen’s injury at the 2006 World Cup.

By far the largest reason for these exceptional charges is the severance payments made to departing managers, which amount to a staggering £17 million over the last five years, including £5.3 million to Kevin Keegan, £4.6 million to Sam Allardyce and his team, £3.2 million to Graeme Souness and £1.1 million to Glenn Roeder. It may be a nerve-wracking experience managing Newcastle, but it’s also a lucrative one. Rumour has it that Big Sam bought a villa in Spain with his pay-off, naming it “Casa St James”. In fact, give the regularity of these payments, it is difficult to argue that they are exceptional in any way, shape or form.

So how does a club go from making a small profit in 2005 to a large loss in 2009, especially in a period when the money from television has significantly increased? The step graph above clearly shows that Newcastle’s TV money has indeed increased in that period by £10 million, but all of that has been wiped out by falls in both match day income of £6 million and commercial revenue of £4 million, meaning no revenue growth at all. Despite that, player costs have shot up: wages by £21 million and player amortisation £6 million. The deficit has been mitigated to some extent by lower interest charges £4 million and higher profit from player sales £10 million.

At this point, I should emphasise that these figures relate to Newcastle United Limited, but the loss is even larger in the club’s parent company, St James Holdings Limited. This was £23 million in 2009 with the only substantial difference being £7 million amortisation on the goodwill arising from the takeover. The divergence was larger in the 2008 accounts, resulting in a £34 million loss in St James Holdings Limited, but that is only because that year’s accounts covered the period since the holding company’s incorporation, which was 13 months.

Even though Newcastle’s revenue has not grown over the last few years, it was still the seventh highest in the Premier League in the 2008/09 season at £86 million, though the gap has widened since then with Manchester City and Tottenham increasing their revenue to £125 million and £113 million respectively. It was already a long way behind the so-called Sky Four with Manchester United generating more than three times as much revenue at £279 million, followed by Arsenal £224 million, Chelsea £206 million and Liverpool £185 million.

It is perhaps surprising then that Newcastle still managed to feature in Deloitte’s last Money League, which ranks the top twenty football clubs in Europe by turnover, albeit in 20th position, especially as they are the only club in the list that did not compete in European competition. That said, Newcastle have featured in every single edition of the Money League since its inception in 1997, though they will slip out of the rankings next year, due to their (brief) sojourn in the Championship. Of course, to become a permanent fixture in these rankings, Newcastle will have to step up to the next level and qualify for the Champions League, which is probably a bit unrealistic in the short-term.

Although the magnitude of the revenue could be higher, the revenue mix offers more encouragement, as it is reasonably well balanced: media 44%, match day 34% and commercial 23%. In other words, they are far less reliant on TV money than many other clubs in the Premier League, half a dozen of which collect more than 70% of their total turnover from Murdoch’s empire.

Having said that, the vast majority of Newcastle’s TV revenue of £38 million in 2008/09 did come from the Premier League central distribution, which worked out at £36 million. This money is allocated as follows: (a) domestic rights – 50% equal share, 25% facility fees based on number of times a team is broadcast live and 25% merit payment based on the final league position; (b) overseas rights – 100% equal share. So, even though Newcastle’s allocation was adversely impacted by finishing 18th, this was mitigated by the club being shown live 20 times, the third highest in the division, demonstrating its enduring box office appeal.

Clearly, the TV allocation in the Championship in 2009/10 was much lower at just over £2 million. Although the impact of relegation was partly cushioned by the £12 million parachute payment, this still meant a drop in media revenue of around £23 million. Conversely, in 2010/11 Newcastle will again benefit from the Premier League’s riches, more so, in fact, as the new three-year deal kicked-off this season. Thanks to a healthy increase in overseas rights, this will be worth considerably more and it is anticipated that teams will receive at least £40 million. The last time that the Premier League deal was increased was in 2007/08, when Newcastle’s media revenue rose from £26 million to £41 million, so the importance of growth in this revenue stream is readily apparent.

Of course, like many other clubs, Newcastle’s TV revenue pales in comparison to the Sky Four, who have boosted their income with Champions League qualification. This was worth an average of £30 million for the four English clubs last year, not including additional gate receipts or uplifts in sponsorship agreements. To place this into context, in 2003/04, the year after Newcastle last reached the Champions League, their total revenue was only £2 million lower than Liverpool’s, but the clubs are now separated by almost £100 million.

Where Newcastle do score very highly is in gate receipts, thanks to their impressively large and loyal support. Although this has fallen from £35 million in 2005 to £29 million in 2009, this was unbelievably still the tenth highest of the Money League clubs, superior to Milan, Inter, Lyon and Borussia Dortmund among others.

Part of the decrease was due to the lack of European competition, which boosted revenue in 2005 and 2008 thanks to 6-7 home matches in the UEFA Cup, but average attendances have also declined, falling from 51,800 in 2005 to 48,800 in 2009. Despite season ticket prices being cut by an average 9% in the Championship, attendances unsurprisingly fell further to 43,400, but that was still the fourth highest in England, ahead of Liverpool, Chelsea and, yes, Sunderland.

After its redevelopment, St James’ Park is the third largest club stadium in England, only behind Old Trafford and the Emirates, with a capacity of 52,400. While it is true that Newcastle struggle to fill the ground, their crowd figures are still pretty remarkable, especially in the midst of an economic recession which has hit the north-east of England particularly hard. Indeed, the average attendance is up to 46,000 so far this season, which is only surpassed by Manchester United, Arsenal and Manchester City. In terms of the fan base, this is undeniably a big club.

Given that reputation, the club’s commercial revenue of £19 million might be considered a touch disappointing, especially as it dropped by £7 million in 2009, though much of this was because of the decision to outsource the club’s catering operations and some might be due to fans boycotting the club’s merchandise as a protest against the unpopular owner. In fact, commercial income might fall even more, as the four-year extension to the shirt sponsorship deal with Northern Rock is now only worth £2.5 million a year, only about half of the previous agreement of £4.8 million. Even this is not guaranteed, but depends on Newcastle remaining in the Premier League.

"What have they done to deserve this?"

This was one of only two Premier League shirt sponsorship contracts to decrease this season (Sunderland was the other one), but in fairness Newcastle were caught between a (Northern) Rock and a hard place and the deal is still the tenth most lucrative in the league, albeit miles less than Manchester United and Liverpool, who both receive £20 million per annum. At least, cash from this extension is not front-loaded, as was the money from the previous deal, which was reportedly used to fund Michael Owen’s transfer.

There is a new kit deal with Puma, who have replaced long-standing partner Adidas, which runs two years until 2012, though no financial details have been disclosed. At least this means that the ludicrous custard yellow away kit can be jettisoned.

It is still possible that the thorny issue of stadium naming rights will be raised again, though this is a tricky thing to get right, unless a club moves to a new ground where there is no history or tradition. That said, even Ashley’s fierce rival, local businessman Barry Moat, who unsuccessfully tried to take over the club, has admitted that he would look at naming rights in order to bridge the financial gap with wealthier clubs.

All in all, there’s room for improvement in Newcastle’s revenue, but it’s really not too bad. However, the club’s expenses are shocking, especially the wage bill. In four years, wages increased by more than 40% from £50 million in 2005 to £71 million in 2009, while the revenue stagnated, producing an unsustainable wages to turnover ratio of 83%, way above UEFA’s recommended upper limit of 70%. Only three Premier League clubs (Manchester City, Blackburn Rovers and Wigan Athletic) had a worse ratio in 2008/09.

Furthermore, in the year that Newcastle were relegated, they had the sixth highest wage bill in the league. Invariably, the level of wages bears a close correlation to success on the pitch, so it’s fair to say that Newcastle have massively under-performed. Put another way, their wage bill was more than twice that of the clubs they were battling for relegation.

Since dropping into the Championship, the club has significantly reduced its payroll, as many high earners have departed, including Owen, Mark Viduka, Obafemi Martins, Damien Duff, Geremi, Nicky Butt and Habib Baye, but many of the squad that was relegated have remained. As Llambias explained, “We didn’t fire sale. We purposefully kept a nucleus of the team that we felt could take us up.” This was an expensive gamble, but one that worked out in this instance.

In a way, Newcastle’s rapid return was only to be expected, given that their lower wage bill was still the highest in the league with Llambias admitting that the wages were “down to an acceptable level in the Premiership, but not in the Championship.” The cut might have been deeper if the club had inserted relegation clauses into the players’ contracts, but apparently the previous owners did not consider this a possibility. Nevertheless, it has been estimated that some £25 million was chopped off the wage bill, reducing it to around £45 million. Some other large contracts are apparently coming to an end next summer, so there will be an opportunity to further address the wages at that point, either by selling those players or offering them reduced terms.

There has also been a steep increase in player amortisation, namely the annual expense of writing down the purchase price of new players, which has doubled since 2005, rising from £10 million to £20million, though it is still on the low side compared to clubs known for being big spenders in the transfer market, e.g. Manchester City £71 million, Chelsea £49 million.

The concept of amortisation confuses many people, but it is simply how accountants handle player transfers. Instead of booking 100% of the player’s transfer price as a cost in the year of purchase, accountants treat players as assets, so the cost is capitalised and written-down (amortised) over the length of his contract. At the end of the contract, the player is considered to have no value, because he can then leave the club on a free transfer.

It’s probably easier to understand with a real world example. Let’s take Fabrizio Coloccini, who was bought for £10 million in 2008 on a five-year contract, meaning that the annual amortisation is £2 million. After two years his net book value in the accounts is £6 million (the original cost of £10 million less two years amortisation at £2 million per annum).

The increase in amortisation therefore suggests that they have spent big in the transfer market and that was indeed the case – right up until Mike Ashley arrived. In fact, most of the rise occurred back in 2006, before the new owner’s era, when the club also wrote-off substantial sums in impairment of player values.

Details of transfer activity over the last decade show the changing approach quite clearly. In the six years since the turn of the millennium Newcastle had net spend of £82 million, but in the last four years there has been a surplus of £18 million. Even when the new board sanctioned higher spending of £30 million in 2008/09, this was matched by sales of £32 million. That is an almost perfect example of balancing the books, whereby the manager has to sell before he can buy.

This cautious, but sensible, approach is epitomised by the first risk listed in the club’s annual report, “the acquisition of players and their related costs are one of the most significant and high profile risks facing the Group.” In fact, only three Premier League clubs spent less on bringing in new players than Newcastle this summer: Everton, Blackburn Rovers and Blackpool.

In spite of this, the club’s previous excesses have resulted in significant debt of £282 million, though only £150 million is held in the books of the football club with the remaining £132 million held in the holding company. The vast majority of this debt represents loans from Mike Ashley of £243 million, but there is also a bank overdraft of £36 million, which is a significant increase on the prior year balance of £1 million. Since the 2009 year-end, Ashley advanced a further £25.5 million to keep the club ticking over in the Championship, so his total investment in the club now stands at £268 million, represented by £132 million to buy the club, £70 million to repay loans and £66 million working capital.

Because most of the loans are from the owner, instead of banks, some commentators have argued that the club is effectively debt-free, though it should be noted that Ashley’s loans are now repayable on demand, whereas they were previously only repayable on demand in the event of a change of control (ownership). That said, it is clear that it is better for the football club to borrow money from the owner, as these loans are unsecured, which means that Ashley has no guarantee of repayment, and non-interest bearing. This has been important to the club’s finances, as the net interest payable has been reduced by £5 million a year.

More to the point, Ashley’s loans have been critical to the club’s survival, as it is far from clear that they would have managed to secure refinancing from the debt market. For example, Barclays Bank has insisted on securing its lending on assets and cash from transfer fees, while the last loan obtained by the previous regime under chairman Freddy Shepherd was at the prohibitively expensive interest rate of 11.72%.

In fact, it is fair to say that the previous ownership had mortgaged the club to the hilt, securing loans on virtually all the club’s assets (training ground) and future income streams (TV, sponsorship), though they would argue that this was used to fund the stadium development. Whatever the reasons, when Ashley bought the club, the holders of the loan notes invoked a change of control clause, forcing the new owner to immediately repay the £45 million outstanding, as opposed to the annual installments until 2016 that he had anticipated.

Despite his crass behaviour, there is no doubt that Mike Ashley has put his hand in his pocket to keep the club going. The unpalatable truth is that Newcastle United are heavily reliant on the support of their charmless owner. In the last two years, he has put in £111 million of new loans, initially to repay £70 million of expensive bank loans, but also providing £41 million of working capital on top of that (plus the £25.5 million subsequent to the books closing). Looking at the 2009 cash flow statement, his backing was required to help fund a £24 million loss from operating activities plus £17 million of net spend on new players, many of which were signed in previous periods, though most of the shortfall was financed by the increase in the overdraft.

The club’s deteriorating financial position is also evidenced by the balance sheet, which shows a swing from net assets of £17 million in 2005 to net liabilities of £52 million in 2009, though the players’ value in the accounts is under-stated compared to the price that they would receive in the market.

In contrast to Ashley, the former owners did very nicely out of their investment in Newcastle United, thank you very much. In fact, they absolutely coined it with the Halls (Sir John and Douglas) receiving a total of £95 million over the years, while the Shepherds (Freddy and Bruce) had to make do with £55 million. The Halls’ money comprised £55 million from the sale to Ashley, £20 million from previous share sales (to NTL and the club itself), £15 million from dividends and £5 million in salary payments, while the Shepherds’ money came from £38 million Ashley sale, £7 million dividends and £5 million salaries.

"Another fine mess he's got into"

And what was the result of these staggering payments? After years of rank bad management, they left the club in an appalling mess: a £30 million loss; £70 million of debt plus £27 million owing transfer fees; extremely limited borrowing capacity, as all assets and income streams had already been used to secure loans; and a bloated wage bill of aging mercenaries on generous long-term contracts.

They also left us the indelible memory of Douglas Hall and Freddy Shepherd being caught by a News of the World sting, when they were recorded in a seedy Spanish bar, laughing about the Toon Army’s gullibility in buying replica shirts and calling Geordie women “dogs”. After this scandal, the gruesome twosome briefly resigned, only to return to the board less than a year later. Somehow, they managed to survive by spouting a lot of nonsense about “fighting for the Geordie nation” and appeasing the fans by making a marquee signing from time to time.

Incoming chairman Chris Mort criticised the old board, “If they had not been successful in refinancing the club by the end of the year, it would have folded like a pack of cards.” Admittedly, he had a vested interest, but his view was endorsed by Vinay Bedi from stockbrokers Brewin Dolphin, “Ashley bought a club that was financially going nowhere with debts increasing as player transfers built up. It was a difficult situation – it was hard to see how the club could be turned round quickly without a huge injection of cash.”

"Newcastle v Sunderland - Cheick Mate"

To be fair to Ashley, that is exactly what he has done. Furthermore, the club’s accounts have only been signed off by the auditors on the basis of assurances from Ashley that he will continue to finance operations in the future. The man himself has said that he is “prepared to bankroll Newcastle up to the tune of £20 million per year, but no more.” The question is for how long he can afford to do this, as his wealth is linked to the fortunes of his company Sports Direct, which has seen fluctuations in its share price and is also the subject of an ongoing investigation by the Office of Fair Trading. Nevertheless, even though his wealth halved in the 2009 Sunday Times Rich List, he is still estimated to be worth £700 million.

Of course, the more fundamental question is whether Ashley will sell the club. He’s had plenty of attempts already, lowering his price each time he puts the club in the shop window, starting at an utterly absurd £400 million, before rapidly changing down through the gears until he reached the most recent price of £80 million, though it is not entirely clear whether or not that includes repayment of the loans made on top of the original purchase price.

It is difficult to understand his intentions. In the past, he’s made all the right noises about selling the club, but when Barry Moat appeared to be edging close to his asking price, he suddenly cancelled the sale. Giving the new manager a five-year contract does not seem to be the act of an owner that is keen to sell, but Ashley is a bewildering figure in many ways.

For the right price, Newcastle United would surely attract a serious bidder. It’s the only club in one of England’s largest football cities, which has a very large following. Not only that, but it is also playing in the richest league in the world with the most lucrative TV deal and has numerous commercial opportunities. More cynically, another attraction to overseas buyers is the lax regulations on takeovers in the Premier League.

"It's really not funny"

Financially, the figures will get worse before they get better, and Newcastle have estimated an operating loss of £32.5 million for the Championship season in 2009/10. However, the club is aiming for self-sufficiency now that it is back in the Premier League, and this should be feasible, especially with the new TV deal and the reduction in wages after the clear out of so many high earners after relegation. My own estimate is for a £5 million profit, which assumes £45 million TV revenue, 10% reduction in match day income compared to the last time in Premier League, commercial revenue reduced by £2 million for the lower sponsorship deal, a £50 million wage bill and £15 million profit on player sales (Sebastien Bassong, Obafemi Martins and Damien Duff).

The tragedy for Mike Ashley is that he could so easily have been a hero to the Newcastle faithful, having sunk so much of his own money into the club, but as Freddy Shepherd acidly observed, “Anybody can buy a football club, not everybody can run one.” Leaving aside the slightly unreliable provenance of the quote, especially as Ashley has had to fix the financial mess that he inherited from his predecessors, the man does have a point. As Ashley himself has admitted, “I tried my best, but I accept that my best was woefully short.” Even after Newcastle’s victory over Liverpool at the weekend, it’s difficult to believe that many of their fans would disagree with him.