Rabu, 01 Desember 2010

Spurs Daring To Dream


When Tottenham Hotspur were three-nil down to Young Boys Bern after only 30 minutes of their Champions League qualifying match in August, it looked for all the world as if their European adventure would be over as soon as it had started. With Michael Dawson and Sebastian Bassong doing passable imitations of Bambi on ice, the Swiss minnows were ripping the North Londoners a new one every time they attacked. After many years of waiting for a chance to have a crack at Europe’s elite, the hopes and dreams of the Spurs fans were disintegrating before their eyes on YB’s plastic pitch.

However, Spurs somehow reduced the deficit and predictably crushed their unheralded opponents in the return leg at White Hart Lane to secure their place in the Champions League group stage. Since that nervous start, Spurs have at times played some exhilarating football in Europe’s premier tournament, winning all three of their home games by wide margins, including an unexpected 3-1 demolition of the reigning champions Inter, leading to them already qualifying for the last 16 with a game in hand.

They are also riding high in the Premier League, currently sitting in fifth, just one place outside the qualifying positions for next season’s Champions League, so everything would appear to be rosy in Tottenham’s garden these days.

The news off the pitch also seems very good with the club’s press release for the 2010 financial results highlighting “record revenues of £119.8 million” and “profit from operations excluding football player trading of £22.7 million.” You have to look long and hard before you discover that Tottenham actually reported a pre-tax loss of £6.5 million, a decline of nearly £40 million from last year’s profit before tax of £33.4 million.

Of course, most companies will accentuate the positives in their results, but this is particularly misleading, not to mention absurd if you consider that “football player trading” is almost by definition a core part of a football club’s business, especially as it forms an essential element of the modus operandi at Spurs, and represents real income and expenses. Funnily enough, the 2009 annual report instead opted to focus on the “record profits before tax of £33.4 million”, rather than mention the “profit from operations excluding football player trading”, presumably because that actually fell last year from £27.5 million to £18.4 million. There’s so much spin in these statements that you almost expect to hear an Australian wicket-keeper cry, “Bowled, Warnie”, as the great man delivers another vicious leg-break.

To be fair, there are two ways to interpret these accounts. Taking a negative stance, I would point out that, despite reporting record turnover, the club still made a loss. They might argue that the cash profit (EBITDA) of £25.4 million, comprising the profit from operations excluding player trading of £22.7 million plus £2.8 million depreciation added back, is fairly impressive, but this is still not enough to cover interest payments of £5.0 million and net transfer spend of £27.5 million (£34.5 million of sales less £62.0 million of purchases).

"Tactics? Absolutely delicious"

On the other hand, more positively, almost all of the reduction in profits came from lower player sales with the £15m earned in 2010 (Darren Bent to Sunderland, Didier Zokora to Seville and Kevin-Prince Boateng to Portsmouth) nowhere near as much as 2009’s unprecedented £57 million (Dimitar Berbatov to Manchester United and Robbie Keane to Liverpool). Wages rose £7 million, but this was covered by higher TV money.

In fact, compared to the losses made at other leading clubs recently (Manchester City £121 million, Manchester United £80 million), Spurs’ modest loss of £7 million is quite encouraging, especially as their figures do not include any money from the Champions League. As Roy Kaitcer from stockbrokers Brewin Dolphin said, “The figures look very good. If I was a Spurs fan, I’d be pretty happy.”

That’s why the blatant attempt to “spin” the results is so disappointing, as there’s really no need to do so, with the figures indicating that the club is well run financially, all things considered. This should come as no surprise, given that this year’s loss is the first since 2004. For a club with Champions League aspirations on a relatively low turnover, that’s no mean feat and should be applauded.

Even with this year’s increase in revenue to £120 million, Spurs are still a long way behind the traditional Big Four clubs in England: Manchester United £286 million earn more than twice as much; Arsenal £223 million (football income only) earn over £100 million more; while Chelsea £206 million and Liverpool £185 million also have significantly higher turnover, even though those are last year’s figures. Manchester City have also overtaken Spurs with their revenue rising from £87 million to £125 million.

The problem for Spurs is that even though their revenue has grown at an imposing 69% over the last five years, this has been more than matched by other clubs, who have increased their revenue at an even faster rate. Both Manchester United 72% and, even more emphatically, Arsenal 94%, thanks to the Emirates effect, have outpaced Spurs. The 2010 accounts for Chelsea and Liverpool have not yet been published, so we don’t know their growth rate over the full period, but we can be fairly sure that the revenue gap in absolute terms will not have diminished.

However, Spurs’ 2009 revenue of £113 million was still enough to place them 15th in the Deloittes Money League for European clubs, so it’s not that shabby. To place that into context, it’s not far behind Lyon’s £119 million, which was sufficient to fund a team that reached the Champions League semi-final last season. Moreover, if the £40+ million revenue that Spurs can expect to gain this year, mainly from their run in the Champions League, were to be added to the current revenue of £119 million, they would then have turnover of around £160 million, which would not be too far behind Inter’s £167 million – and they actually won the trophy.

Partly as a result of the lack of Champions League broadcasting income, Spurs’ revenue mix is fairly well balanced, though the increasing influence of Sky TV money is evident, now accounting for 43% of the total turnover. Although this is obviously a key factor, Spurs are still far less reliant on TV income than most clubs in the Premier League, with only the Big Four having a lower percentage and other clubs dangerously dependent on TV with over 70% of their money coming from the Murdoch empire. The other obvious trend for Tottenham is the declining significance of gate receipts, which have fallen from 30% to 23% of the total income, hence the plans for a new stadium.

Media and broadcasting revenue increased this year by 15% (or £7 million) to £52 million, largely due to a higher central distribution of £49 million from the Premier League. This was attributable to a higher merit fee award based on the final league position of fourth compared to eighth the previous season (£4 million increase) and a rise in the facility fee, based on the number of times Spurs featured in live television games (£2 million increase).

The last time TV revenue rose by a similar amount was in 2008 (from £34 million to £40 million), which was as a result of the new Sky contract for 2008-2010. In the same way, the new three-year deal for 2010-13 will also deliver higher revenue to each Premier League club, thanks to the significantly higher money for overseas rights, which could be worth up to £10 million extra for Spurs.

In spite of these riches, Spurs’ TV income in 2010 is still much lower than the other top English clubs, who enjoyed the benefit of additional cash from the Champions League, which in 2009/10 was worth an average of £30 million for the English teams (Manchester United £39 million, Arsenal £28 million, Chelsea £27 million and Liverpool £24 million).

"Best player in the world"

The money that Spurs will receive from UEFA for the Champions League 2010/11 is primarily dependent on how far they progress, though there is also a sizeable chunk linked to the TV (market) pool.

Every team that qualifies for the Group Stage is awarded €3.9 million for participation plus another €550,000 per match played in the group phase, regardless of the result, so that’s a guaranteed €7.2 million. On top of that, there is also a performance bonus of €800,000 for every win and €400,000 for every draw in the group stage. To date, Spurs have won three matches, drawn one and lost one, giving an additional €2.8 million. If we assume that the final away game to Twente Enschede is a draw, that would increase to €3.2 million. Spurs will also pick up €3 million for advancing to the last 16. Even if they were to get eliminated at this stage, they would receive the princely sum of €13.4 million in prize money.

There is additional performance money for each further stage reached, so if Spurs were to hit the ball out of the park (sounds wrong, but you know what I mean), they would receive the following: quarter-final €3.3 million, semi-final €4.2 million, finalists €5.6 million and winners €9 million. So if Spurs went all the way and won the damn thing (miracles can happen), they would earn around €30 million, which is serious money in anybody’s book(s).

"Crouchie's having his nachos"

In addition to these fixed sums, Spurs will receive a share of the television money from the market pool. This is a variable amount, which is allocated depending on a number of factors: (a) the size/value of a country’s TV market, so the amount allocated to teams in England is more than that given to, say, Spain, as English television generates more revenue; (b) the number of representatives from your country, so an English team (with four representatives) might receive less than a German team (with only two representatives); (c) the position of a club in its domestic championship in the previous season, so if two teams from England both reach the quarter-final, the one that finished ahead of the other in the Premier League would get more money; (d) the number of matches played in the current season’s Champions League. This all makes it difficult to estimate but a reasonable figure for Spurs would be around €17 million, based on a small uplift to last year’s figures.

That would give Spurs a total of €30 million TV money from UEFA for the Champions League, which is equivalent to £25 million at current exchange rates. That’s a tidy sum, which on its own would increase Spurs’ turnover by over 20%. Given its potential impact, it’s easy to see why clubs strain every sinew (and spend to their limit and sometimes beyond) to reach the promised land of the Champions League. Of course, there are “only” four places available, so it’s still a gamble, but the size of the prize is striking.

"Razor sharp"

Spurs have received many plaudits for their commercial acumen, but this has not yet been reflected in the financials, as commercial revenue has actually been falling for the last two seasons from £38 million to £34 million. Much of this decrease comes from corporate hospitality, which has suffered both from the economic recession and the club not being in a European competition, though the latter cause should have been addressed this season. Merchandising rose slightly to £8 million this year, but is still below the peak of £10 million in 2008, which was boosted by shirt sales relating to the clubs 125th anniversary and new kit launches.

However, Spurs will benefit from two new shirt sponsors in what they describe as “a ground-breaking innovative split of the shirt sponsorship inventory”, with software company Autonomy becoming the sponsor for all Premier League matches (£10 million a season) and asset manager Investec taking on the sponsorship for all cup competitions (£2.5 million a season). Both agreements run from July 2010 for two years, with the Autonomy deal having an option to extend for a further five years, so will only be reflected in next year’s accounts.

"The only way is up"

The combined £12.5 million is worth £4 million more a season than the £8 million paid by previous sponsors Mansion and is the fourth highest in the Premier League, only behind Manchester United, Liverpool and Chelsea. It’s also a lot higher than the £5.5 million that Emirates pays Arsenal, though that is largely due to the upfront cash payments that were needed to help fund the Emirates construction. Nigel Currie of sponsorship consultancy Brand Rapport has praised the Spurs’ arrangement, “It seems if clubs can cut their sponsorship cloth a different way, they can extend their offer to more than one brand. I think that other clubs may now look at ways of increasing the value of their shirt sponsorship.”

The five-year kit deal with Puma worth a reported £5 million a season has been extended by a further year to run until the end of 2011/12. This is just one of a number of high quality partners, the list also including BT, Thomas Cook, MBNA, Sportingbet and Ladbrokes.

The other revenue stream, gate receipts, has also been decreasing: from £31 million in 2007 to £27 million in 2010, though this is heavily influenced by the number of cup matches. In the 2006/07 season, Spurs had three major cup runs, reaching the quarter-finals in both the FA Cup and UEFA Cup and the semi-finals in the Carling Cup, generating gate receipts of £13 million, compared to £7 million in 2010. This also explains the large jump in gate receipts in 2007, as the previous year included only £100,000 for cup competitions. In other words, qualifying for the Europa League can still be beneficial in terms of match day income (assuming the fans turn up), even though the prize money is considerably less than the Champions League.

"Huge talent"

Underlying gate receipts, i.e. those from league matches, have actually been steadily increasing every year, from £17 million in 2005 to £20 million in 2010, when the stadium was filled to its 36,500 capacity for every Premier League match, despite the season ticket prices being the third highest in the country (though prices were frozen for up to two years in 2009).

In the annual report, the club is keen to emphasise its focus on the cost side of the business. In 2007, it somewhat ostentatiously stated, “Whilst more and more money enters the game, primarily from the central FAPL TV deal, we endeavour to control our significant cost base”, while the 2009 accounts also mentioned “the club’s ongoing and prudent cost control policies.” I have little doubt that Spurs have indeed attempted to control costs, but the fact remains that (including player amortisation) these have grown by £66 million (94%) in the last five years, while revenue has only increased by £49 million (70%). Heaven knows what the cost growth would have looked like if they hadn’t adopted this frugal approach.

Obviously, what has been driving the cost growth, just like any other football club, is player costs, namely wages and amortisation. There is some evidence of the famed Redknapp effect with wages increasing £14 million since his arrival in 2008, but, truth be told, other managers have contributed just as much to the growth with wages also rising £20 million in the previous three season. It appears as if chairman Daniel Levy is keeping the old rogue on a tight leash – a case of an irresistible force meeting an immovable object. That said, Spurs’ salaries did grow by a worrying 11% last season, which is higher than Manchester United’s 7% and Arsenal’s 6%.

This lead to an increase in the important wages to turnover ratio to 56%, but this is still very good and is, in fact, the third best in the Premier League (only behind United and Arsenal), which is a notable achievement given the small turnover. This is because Levy’s negotiating skills have managed to keep the wage bill in check to date. He has refused to compromise the wage structure at Spurs, so in the summer they were unwilling to foot the bill for Joe Cole’s exorbitant wage demands and only took on William Gallas when he lowered his salary.

Moreover, the 2006 annual report intriguingly mentions, “The policy throughout the club is to reward performance based on the continued success of the club”, which raise the possibility that Spurs, unlike many other clubs, have actually got their bonus scheme right, though cynics might point out that there has been precious little success to reward.

I also wonder how much of an impact on the wage bill the decision to withdraw from the Reserve League has had. For example, the 2009 accounts stated that 19 players had gone on loan, which is a policy that clearly reduces the payroll.

Whatever the reasons, Tottenham’s wage bill of £67 million is by some distance the lowest of the “mini league” featuring the Big Four plus Spurs and Manchester City. It’s effectively half the size of Chelsea, City and United; £44 million less than Arsenal; and £23 million below Liverpool. Of course, at the same time, it’s higher than the other teams in the chasing pack like Everton and Aston Villa, leaving Spurs in an uncomfortable “piggy in the middle” position. If they want to consistently match the big boys, the chances are that they will have to push forward and spend more on wages, but they will also need to grow revenue season after season if they are to do that with confidence.

So Levy has done a fine job in keeping wages down, but he is equally adept at negotiating his own remuneration, which has increased from £250,000 in 2004 to £1.35 million in 2010, split evenly between fees and bonus. Similarly, the remuneration of the Finance Director, Matthew Collecott, has increased from £96,000 to £504,000 in the same period. All told, these two directors have received £5.5 million and £2.1 million respectively in the last seven years. In fairness, these are not outrageous sums when compared to the figures earned by their peers at the Big Four, though some might argue that they are bigger clubs (larger turnover, more success, higher profile), so there should be a premium.

There has also been a steep increase in player amortisation, namely the annual expense of writing down the purchase price of new players, which has more than tripled since 2005, rising from £13 million to £40 million. That’s a lot (it’s the same as Manchester United), though it’s still on the low side compared to clubs known for being big spenders in the transfer market: Manchester City £71 million, Chelsea £49 million.

The concept of amortisation confuses many people, but it is simply how accountants handle player transfers. Instead of booking 100% of the player’s transfer price as a cost in the year of purchase, accountants treat players as assets, so the cost is capitalised and written-down (amortised) over the length of his contract. At the end of the contract, he is considered to have no value, because he can then leave the club on a free transfer.

It’s probably easier to understand with the recent example of Rafael van der Vaart. Spurs bought the Dutch maestro for £8 million, so if we assume that his contract is for four years, then the annual amortisation is £2 million. After three years his net book value in the accounts will be £2 million (the original cost of £8 million less three years amortisation at £2 million per annum).

Spurs’ ever-rising amortisation therefore suggests that they are big spenders in the transfer market and that is indeed the case. The last time that Spurs had a net surplus on their transfer spend was ten years ago in 2000/01, while since then they have been the very definition of a buying club, leading to an aggregate net spend of almost £150 million in the decade (£320 million purchases less £170 million sales).

To place that into context, only Manchester City, fuelled by the Sheikh’s billions, have spent more than Tottenham in the last five years. With a net £91 million, Spurs have spent twice as much as Liverpool, four times as much as Chelsea, nine times as much as United, while Arsenal have actually generated a surplus from their transfer activities. In fairness, the frequent changes of manager (Martin Jol, Juande Ramos, Harry Redknapp) have made a high level of player turnover inevitable, leading to what the chairman described as “one of the largest squads in the Premier League.”

Levy would argue that the investment in the first team squad has been worthwhile in that it has meant qualification for the Champions League, which is clearly a valid point, though the impact on the club’s financials is not so palatable. Remember that this year the club made a profit before player trading of £22.7 million, but this became a £6.5 million loss after the impact of splashing the cash in the transfer market was taken into consideration. And there’s little sign of this abating, as the squad was “boosted” after the year-end with yet another £20 million of purchases, including van der Vaart, Gallas, Sandro and Stipe Pletikosa.

To be fair, the high level of player purchases has not put the club into debt. Yes, the club holds net debt of £64 million (excluding CRPS liabilities), but the vast majority of that is property specific. In 2006 the club was actually in a net cash position to the tune of £24 million, but since then the debt has been rising year after year: 2007 £2 million, 2008 £15 million, 2009 £46 million and 2010 £64 million. If the liability component of the Convertible Redeemable Preference Shares were classified as debt (as the accounts do in the analysis of Total Borrowings), then the net debt could be considered as £79 million.

The debt comprises £50 million of bank loans, including a £15 million short-term revolving loan from HSBC and a £33 million facility with the Bank of Scotland at a floating rate linked to LIBOR; plus £25 million of loan notes at an interest rate of 7.29% repayable in equal instalments by September 2023; less £11 million of cash. All the loans are secured on club assets.

Even though debt has been increasing, total liabilities actually fell £11 million to £218 million last year, largely due to a decrease in trade payables. In fact, the balance sheet is quite strong with net assets of £71 million, including tangible assets of £124 million, comprising White Hart Lane £39 million, new stadium project £72 million and the new training ground at Bulls Cross in Enfield £12 million, and intangible assets (players) of £116 million. Of course, the market value of the players in the real world is far higher than the carrying value in the accounts. Transfermarkt estimates a value of £258 million, but even that is under-stated, as they only ascribe an £18 million value to Gareth Bale, who is, of course, the eighth wonder of the world.

However, as the accounts say, “This huge investment over the years has been funded through equity contributions and long-term debt financing.” Although the club generates cash from its operating activities (£20 million in 2010), once it has made interest payments and invested in capital expenditure (players and property), it has a net cash outflow (£33 million in 2010). This has only been (partially) compensated by additional funding, which last year came via a combination of £10 million more debt and £15 million of new share capital. In fact, in the last four years, some £70 million of additional financing has been required to maintain the cash outflows at a manageable level.

This trend is likely to increase in the future, as Spurs will have to invest a great deal of money in the planned new 56,000 stadium. As Levy explained in a statement on the club’s website, “It is indisputable that we now need an increased capacity stadium in order to continue to move the club forward and compete at the highest levels.” White Hart Lane may be an atmospheric stadium, but its 36,500 capacity cannot provide the £100 million match day revenue enjoyed by clubs like Manchester United and Arsenal. To give a fair comparison, some corporate hospitality should be added to Spurs’ gate receipts of £27 million, but their revenue would only be around £40 million (per Deloittes Money League), which is still £60 million lower. Spurs’ enthusiasm for the project is even more understandable with 33,000 supporters on the (paid-for) season ticket waiting list.

The search for a new stadium has effectively come down to two viable options: (a) the Northumberland Development Project in the area around White Hart Lane; (b) relocation to the Olympic Stadium in Stratford. Up until a few months ago, it seemed that the NDP was the only game in town (2009 accounts: “as a club, we are proud of our roots in Haringey”), but there is now a distinct possibility that Spurs will move away from their spiritual home. Although the plans have now been approved by both the local council and the Mayor of London, revisions have added £50 million of costs, bringing the total budget required to an eye-watering £450 million.

In order to minimise the club’s exposure to debt, it hopes to subsidise the project costs with supporting developments, such as new homes, hotel and supermarket, and sell naming rights for the stadium. According to an article in the Daily Mail, the new commercial director, Charlie Wijeratna, has been tasked with securing an astonishing £300 million over 20 years for naming rights, which would go a long way towards solving the funding issues (though there may be some implications for shirt sponsorship). However, Levy has confirmed that additional financing would still be required, either through issuing new shares in the club or bank loans, which would not be cheap (Manchester United’s bond is 8.75%, while Arsenal’s is 5.75%).

"Grounds for optimism"

As well as the high cost, there are other issues with this project, namely the total lack of public money being made available for regeneration (in contrast to the stadium developments at Wembley and Arsenal) and the chronically poor transport infrastructure, so it is only prudent to consider other alternatives. However, if Spurs were to abandon the White Hart Lane solution, they would face some other financial issues. First, they would have to write-off the £20 million of planning and professional fees currently held on the balance sheet. Second, they would have to sell the £50 million of property that they have already purchased, which may prove difficult, as this is by no means prime real estate, though the accounts do state that they have gained “the critical mass to achieve a substantial site sale as a contribution to a relocation.”

Hence, the decision to keep the club’s options open by registering its interest in the Olympic Stadium site (along with AEG). Estimates of the costs required to convert this into a football stadium vary, ranging from £100 million to £200 million, but there’s no doubt that this would be a significantly cheaper opportunity, especially as there is apparently £35 million available in the Olympic legacy fund to help finance the conversion. Some of the costs would also be recouped by Tottenham selling their property around White Hart Lane.

"Appy 'Arry"

Many regard Spurs’ interest in the Olympic Stadium as simply a negotiating tactic, an act of brinkmanship designed to persuade Haringey council to contribute money towards the cost of the Northumberland Development, but Tottenham director Sir Keith Mills insists that the club is serious, “If the Olympic Park Legacy Company decides our bid is the preferred one, then we’ll put all our efforts behind trying to move there.” Indeed, Levy has pointed out that the Olympic site is only five miles from the current stadium with excellent transport links.

Obviously, the majority of Tottenham fans are nervous about this prospect, including local MP David Lammy, who complained, “Levy is willing to sacrifice the atmosphere of White Hart Lane to stuff the Olympic Stadium with corporate hospitality boxes. Tottenham Hotspur should be a club for everyone, not just the suits in the City.” That’s a bit harsh, given that the chairman has a responsibility to the financial stability of the club, but essentially that’s what the argument boils down to: history and tradition against financial benefits.

Of course, it may not be up to Spurs, as West Ham are still considered the favourites for the Olympic Stadium, not only because they are the local club, backed by Newham council, but they have also promised to retain the running track to preserve the commitment made as part of the London 2012 bid. That said, the authorities now seem relaxed over the idea of providing upgraded athletics facilities elsewhere, e.g. Crystal Palace. Furthermore, Spurs’ plan could be more commercially viable, especially if the Hammers are relegated.

Ironically, if and when these plans come to pass, Spurs’ business model would then closely resemble that of Arsenal, as they seek to emulate their fierce rivals’ success off the pitch as well as on it. At the moment, the finances are very different with Arsenal’s profits being £50 million higher: their revenue is £100 million higher, but Spurs’ expenses are £70 million lower. Arsenal also make more money from player sales, but pay more in interest for construction loans. However, in the future, you could envisage a scenario where the additional gate receipts from a new stadium would boost Spurs’ revenue, allowing them to loosen their tight wage structure, when the two clubs would be much more similar.

In the short-term, Tottenham’s revenue next season should already increase by around £45 million, comprising £10 million from the new Premier League TV contract, £30 million from the Champions League UEFA central distributions, £4 million from the new shirt sponsorship deal and £6 million gate receipts (4 Champions League matches at £1.5 million, though this depends on other cup matches). However, this extra money will not all go to the bottom line, as the wage bill and player amortisation will increase for new players, while there will be expenses for hosting European matches. That could easily add up to £20 million, but this would still leave a clear £25 million improvement.

"My name is Luka"

It therefore appears as if Spurs will be well placed to meet the impending UEFA Financial Fair Play Regulations. Indeed, the club’s finance director believes that these will “vindicate” their financial prudence, while also supporting their decision to go for a new stadium, as it is “now more important to drive revenues to the next level.” Given that the new rules are all about clubs operating within their means, it clearly makes sense to boost Spurs’ revenue in this way, especially as the stadium development costs are excluded from the break-even calculation.

However, they will still have the major challenge of consistently qualifying for the Champions League. Daniel Levy has insisted that he will not jeopardise the club’s finances by chasing qualification every year, but it’s a delicate balancing act. If they don’t succeed, potentially Spurs could end up with a squad being paid Champions League wages without the revenue to compensate. That would then present them with the eternal dilemma: would they be tempted to spend more money to win their place back? Or would they balance the books by selling players, which would make it more difficult to qualify?

That is why so much rests on the money from a new stadium, which would give them more room to manoeuvre financially and help create a virtuous circle: higher revenue, better players, regular Champions League qualification. Of course, building a new stadium is far from a straightforward task and the club will almost certainly end up with a lot of debt to service, which may well compromise their ability to invest in the first team squad, which has been the cornerstone of their recent strategy. There is also no guarantee that the crowds will turn up, even with that lengthy waiting list for season tickets.

"Daniel Levy - one smart cookie"

Spurs are in pretty good condition at the moment. The core business is clearly very healthy, for which the chairman Daniel Levy deserves a lot of credit, especially as he has one of the most spendthrift football managers around in Harry Redknapp. However, it feels as if the club is standing at a crossroads financially as they are confronted by some critically important investment decisions.

The club’s motto is famously, “To dare is to do”, but do they simply dare to remember? After all, the annual report concludes with a reminder that next year is the 50th anniversary of the last time Spurs won the league. Or will they risk a lot of money and dare to dream?

Rabu, 24 November 2010

Why Bolton Wanderers Have So Much Debt



Although this is the most open Premier League for many years, it is still somewhat of a surprise to see Bolton Wanderers sitting proudly in fifth place after just over a third of the season has been completed. Not only that, but they have achieved this with a brand of passing, attractive football that most fans thought beyond them. It’s a far cry from this time last year when Gary Megson’s team was being pilloried by Bolton’s own supporters for the awful combination of poor results and an ugly, negative playing style.

This inevitably resulted in the “Ginger Mourinho” being sacked in a desperate attempt to stave off the threat of relegation and the club replacing him with Owen Coyle, whose move from local rivals Burnley was highly controversial, not to mention acrimonious, but the change has paid off in the best possible way. Bolton steadily moved up the table for the rest of last season, ultimately finishing in a comfortable 14th position, while this year’s start has been the club’s most promising for some time.

Moreover, this has not been accomplished via the attritional football long associated with the Trotters, but with an attacking approach and a sense of panache that has the purists purring in appreciation. As the club’s accounts drily explained, “Owen has embarked upon a programme of evolutionary change to the playing style.” The manager has certainly worked a minor miracle with forwards Kevin Davies and Johan Elmander, whose transformation from lumbering plodders to skilful tyros has been nothing short of remarkable. Indeed, this led Barney Ronay in the Guardian to gush, “Bolton are a beautiful thing these days.”

"The dynamic duo"

Of course, Bolton have not been without success in the past, but they have not won much in their long history, even though they were one of only 12 founder members of the Football League. You have to go back all the way to the 20s for their most successful era, when they won the FA Cup three times, with their only other trophy coming in 1958, when they again won the FA Cup by beating Manchester United 2-0 with two goals from legendary centre-forward Nat Lofthouse. More recently, they qualified twice for the UEFA Cup in 2005 and 2007, but their real success has been to survive in the Premier League for ten consecutive seasons.

However, all that glitters is not necessarily gold and, in stark contrast to Bolton’s fortunes on the pitch, the club’s finances have seen better days. A couple of weeks ago the 2010 accounts revealed a huge loss of £35 million plus a significant rise in the net debt to £93 million, thanks to an unhealthy mixture of low turnover and an inflated wage bill. Just as Bolton’s side appear to be on the verge of great things, it looks as if it will have to be broken up by selling its best players, maybe as soon as the next transfer window.

Chairman Phil Gartside admitted that star defender Gary Cahill and Elmander may have to be sacrificed if the right offers come along, “If a Champions League team knocks on the door in January, that’s the best time to sell an asset, because those teams will pay the money.” This could be particularly relevant for Elmander, as the Swede is out of contract at the end of the season, so could leave for no fee, unless his contract is extended. Coyle has insisted that he is under no pressure to sell, stressing that the chairman and owner were already well aware of the financial situation in the summer, and they did not force his hand at that stage. He has a point, but cynics might feel that he is merely talking up the price and someone will still have to be sold in January to balance the books.

So just how bad is the debt?

If you look at it in purely numerical terms, quite frankly, it looks terrible. In fact, the net debt of £93 million is an astronomical sum and is the sixth highest in the Premier League. Outside of the Big Four of Manchester United, Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool, only Fulham have more debt than Bolton and it is arguable that two of those clubs will soon be in a better position, as Liverpool’s previous acquisition debt is being repaid by their new owners, while Arsenal’s debt is rapidly falling due to proceeds from property sales.

What’s even worse is that Bolton’s debt is increasing at a rate of knots. Having held steady in 2005 and 2006 at around £29 million, since then it has more than tripled, rising 45% in the last year alone from £64 million to £93 million. That’s worrying by anyone’s standards, as it indicates a business model that isn’t working.

At least there is no immediate pressure from the banks, as the composition of the debt has changed in the last 12 months with almost all of it (£85 million) now owed to the club’s owner, Edwin Davies, via his company Moonshift Investments Limited, leading Gartside to emphasise, “We are in a fortunate position in that a small percentage of our debt is owed to the bank” – though subsequent to the release of the accounts, Gartside has stated that the club has now agreed new banking facilities with Barclays.

"Cheer up, Phil. The team is in 5th place"

In the meantime, last year’s financials clearly indicate how much Bolton rely on the backing of their owner, as he has covered their increasing losses over the last few years. As Gartside put it, “Without Ed’s support, we would be watching a very different standard of football. He is the only reason we are in the Premier League. He has given us a huge amount of money.”

Actually, Davies has not exactly “given” the money to the club, as Bolton have to pay a price for his generosity. Last year, his company was paid £3.6 million in respect of “arrangement and guarantee fees” for the £85 million loan, which is linked to an interest rate of 5%. It’s also repayable on demand, though the directors have received assurances that repayment of the loans will not be demanded within 12 months of signing the financials statements. In fairness, these terms are an improvement on the previous year, when the interest rate was a very high 10% on a £23 million loan, which produced a £2m payment to Davies.

The loan is also secured by a floating charge on the club’s assets, while Moonshift is owed a further £2.7 million by the club for what is mysteriously described as a “player success fee”.

In short, it is clear that Davies’ funding has been vitally important to the club, but it is equally clear that this is a commercial investment that has provided the owner with a healthy income stream during a difficult economic climate. The club’s chief executive, Allan Duckworth, acknowledged that the owners’ loans charged interest “at a premium which reflects risk, which is high at a football club.” As a result, the club has been paying £4.5 million a year in interest, which is not massive, but it is a sizeable burden when the turnover is only around £60 million.

"Will Cahill be off in the next transfer window?"

In contrast, Mohamed Al Fayed has lent almost £200 million to Fulham interest-free, which makes a significant difference to the West London club’s financials. Furthermore, much of this debt is unsecured, which means that Al Fayed has no guarantee of repayment.

To be fair to Davies, Bolton were in dire straits when he paid £2.25 million in 2003 to increase his shareholding from 29.7% to 94.5%, effectively taking over the club and taking his total outlay at that stage to £14 million. The club had almost collapsed under the burden of debt accumulated from building the Reebok stadium and the adjoining hotel and offices with one of its banks, the Co-Op, seeking to force repayment of its loan. With other banks unwilling to lend, Davies was the only man to come forward and provide the money needed in order to avoid entering administration. For taking that risk alone, Bolton fans should be grateful, so he has arguably earned his reward.

Obviously much of the credit for the club’s progress must go to the players and various managers, not to mention old-fashioned attributes like good coaching, tactics and team spirit, but it is difficult to believe that Bolton would have done as well without Davies’ money. Indeed, Gartside stated, “That this achievement corresponds with Eddie’s investment in the club is not coincidental.” The importance of this funding is evident when examining Bolton’s financials.

The last time that the club made a profit was back in 2006 when they just about broke even, but since then the losses have been steadily rising: 2007 £2 million, 2008 £8 million, 2009 £13 million and 2010 £35 million. The widening of the loss in the last year, when it very nearly tripled, is most shocking, and cannot simply be ascribed to the £4 million cost of restructuring the management team. The truth is that there are fundamental flaws in Bolton’s operating model. Even the relatively small loss in 2007 was boosted by the once-off £3.5 million sale of naming rights for the training ground.

When Gartside recently raised the possibility of a wages cap in the Premier League, he exclaimed, “We keep upping the income and we keep losing money. It’s ridiculous.” Well, he’s half right, if you examine how Bolton moved from a £4 million profit in 2005 to a £35 million loss in 2010. Yes, there has been some revenue growth, but not much – and almost all of it has come from television. Gate receipts have actually fallen in that period. On the other hand, you can see why Gartside is concerned about wages, as these have grown by £21 million, which is almost double the gain from TV. On top of that, player amortisation has risen £14 million and other costs £10 million.

In short, Bolton’s small revenue growth has been eaten up and then some by the cost growth, mainly due to investment in the football team. They have eased their financial indigestion by reaching for the pill bottle named “Debt”.

In similar circumstances, other clubs have opted to redress the balance with the sale of players, but that is not the case for Bolton. In fact, profit from player sales actually dropped from £8 million in 2009 to just £0.1 million last year. As Gartside explained, “We are not a selling club, but a trading club. One of the problems we’ve had over the last three or four years is that we’ve not done much trading.” That’s true, but one of the other problems they have is that it will require a lot of player “trading” to make a meaningful dent in the losses. For example, Bolton averaged profits on player sales of £8 million in both 2008 and 2009, but that did not prevent overall losses of £8 million and £13 million in those years.

Nor are Bolton assisted by their ancillary activities. This analysis is based on the accounts of Burnden Leisure PLC, which is the parent company of the football club (Bolton Wanderers Football & Athletic Company Limited), but also includes the joint venture for a hotel (Bolton Whites Hotel Limited). Some see this as the saviour of the football club, but the reality is that this operation also loses money. The segmental analysis in the accounts reveals that the hotel produces annual revenue of around £8 million, but does not contribute anything to the bottom line, as it has reported losses for the last six years. In 2010, the loss was just under £2 million with trading conditions being described as “extremely testing”.

Given the size of Bolton’s turnover, they are almost bound to struggle financially. If we look at the Premier League revenue from 2008/09 (the last season when we have comparatives for all clubs), we can see that only four clubs reported lower revenue than Bolton (£52 million from football income) – and two of those (Hull City and WBA) ended up being relegated.

You would expect Bolton to be significantly behind the Big Four (Manchester United £279 million, Arsenal £224 million, Chelsea £206 million and Liverpool £185 million), but they also earn a lot less than clubs like Aston Villa (£84 million) and Everton (£80 million), while even Stoke City generated more income (£54 million). In the 2009 annual report, Gartside voiced his concerns, “Addressing this polarisation of clubs and increasing revenue differentials will be the major strategic issue for the Premier League over the coming years.”

Given these limited resources, Bolton’s lengthy tenure in the Premier League has to be considered a fantastic achievement, though it can be looked at in two contrasting ways: either they are punching well above their weight, or they are spending way above their means and are only propped up by a generous benefactor.

The revenue mix is particularly revealing. Match day revenue of £5 million is pitifully small, while commercial revenue of £9 million is actually inflated by including £3 million of unexplained “other football income”, leaving the underlying balance as a tiny £6 million. What this analysis also highlights is the enormous reliance on broadcasting revenue, which represents over 70% of Bolton’s total football income.

If we again look at season 2008/09, we can see that only Wigan are more dependent on TV revenue than Bolton. It’s little different in 2009/10 with Bolton earning £39 million of their £54 million total revenue from the small screen. As such, their turnover is heavily influenced by the timing of broadcasting deals, with the £8 million increase in 2008 revenue being almost entirely due to the new Sky deal.

Happily for Bolton, they can anticipate a similar increase in revenue from next year, as the central payments from the latest three-year deal, which kicked off in the 2010/11 season, will climb by about a third, largely thanks to the increase in overseas rights. TV really has become football’s equivalent of the goose that lays the golden egg, but that fable did not have a happy ending and some believe that the next sale of TV rights in 2013 might bring in less money, due to a number of threats (market saturation, competition, legislation, technology).

At present, Bolton are one of the beneficiaries of the Sky revolution with £37 million of their £39 million broadcasting income emanating from Murdoch’s empire. Surprisingly, Gartside has argued that clubs like his should receive even more from the central distribution pool, even though the Premier League already distributes TV revenue more fairly than any other major European League with 50% of the domestic rights and 100% of the overseas rights allocated equally.

However, not all of the money is allocated in this manner. Merit payments account for 25% of the domestic rights with each place in the final league table being worth £800,000. In addition, the remaining 25% of the domestic TV rights comes from the facility fee, which is based on how many times Sky broadcast a club’s matches live. Each team must be broadcast a minimum of ten times a season with a maximum of 24, but this tends to benefit the big clubs. For example, in each of the last two seasons Bolton have been shown the minimum ten times, while we have had the pleasure of watching Manchester United the maximum 24 times.

So, the difference between Manchester United’s TV allocation of £53 million and Bolton’s of £37 million is around £16 million, of which £9 million is due to merit and £7 million comes from the number of live matches. That does not seem too unreasonable to me. In fact, given that the overseas rights have become a far larger proportion of the total deal, in relative terms the smaller clubs are receiving more than ever before. Of course, the real differential in terms of TV revenue comes from the Champions League, which in fairness is outside the control of Scudamore and Co.

At least TV revenue has been increasing, but this is not the case for gate receipts, which have been declining and now account for only 10% of football income. Despite a slight increase in this revenue stream in 2010, thanks to three more home matches, gate receipts have fallen 45% from their peak of £9.8 million in 2006 to £5.4 million in 2010. Most of this can be attributed to average attendances plummeting from 26,000 to 22,000, but even when there was a temporary increase in crowds in 2009, the money still diminished, as Bolton have reduced ticket prices in an attempt to entice fans back, including the introduction of cheaper season tickets, £49 for children and £299 entry level for adults.

A couple of years ago, the club admitted that falling attendances were a real concern, pointing to factors such as price, kick-off times and levels of TV coverage, but it may simply come down to the effects of the recession, which have hit the north-west of England very hard. It should also be noted that their catchment area includes plenty of other clubs, so there’s a lot of competition for the floating fan.

"Welcome to Planet Reebok"

Whatever the reasons, the fact remains that Bolton’s average attendance last season was the fourth lowest in the Premier League and was actually smaller than seven clubs in the Championship and one in League One. This obviously causes them huge financial problems when competing against other clubs. OK, the likes of Manchester United and Arsenal may be out of sight with their match day revenue of over £100 million, but Bolton’s competitors for European qualification also generate much higher gate receipts than their £5 million, e.g. Spurs £40 million, Aston Villa £23 million and Everton £22 million.

There should be no issue with the ground, as the Reebok Stadium is a modern, all-seater with an appropriate capacity of just under 29,000, though some would prefer the location to be nearer the town centre, as opposed to Horwich, a suburb of Bolton. The club moved to the new stadium in 1997, after playing at Burnden Park for over 100 years, with a view to generating more income, not just from football, but other facilities including a hotel, conference centre and restaurant.

Ever since the new stadium was built, Reebok have been an important part of Bolton’s commercial revenue. They acquired the stadium naming rights, which have been extended until 2016, continue to provide the club’s kit and were the shirt sponsors until 2009, when they were replaced by betting specialist 188BET in a two-year agreement.

"The Flying Finn"

Gartside described this as a “fantastic and lucrative deal”, but the reality is that the £750,000 they receive annually is one of the smallest in the Premier League and is actually lower than the £950,000 that Reebok used to pay. This is part of an innovative “two for the price of one” purchase from 188BET, who also sponsor Wigan for £650,000. Clearly, you would not expect Bolton to match the £20 million earned by the likes of Manchester United and Liverpool, but they could certainly aspire to get the same as neighbours Blackburn Rovers, who earn twice as much (£1.5 million) from their contract with Crown Paints.

Corporate hospitality has also suffered, down 25% in 2010 as a result of the business downturn, while merchandising and licensing sales might have grown by an “encouraging” 16%, but it’s still only worth £1.4 million.

It remains to be seen whether the club can drive growth in these areas, but there may be some hope if Bolton can continue to deliver success on the pitch, while “re-branding” themselves as an exciting team. Gartside alluded to this a couple of years ago, “Commercial success of a football club will to a large extent reflect longer term success on the field.”

So Bolton suffer from structural revenue challenges, but the 2010 £35 million loss was primarily blamed on “further investment in the football team”, resulting in an increase in player wages and amortisation. In order to “improve the quality and depth of the squad”, the likes of Chung-Yong Lee, Zat Knight, Paul Robinson, Sam Ricketts and Sean Davis were added, while loan agreements were taken out for Jack Wilshere, Ivan Klasnic and Vladimir Weiss. As a consequence, the wage bill increased by a hefty 14% last year from £41 million to £46 million.

However, this was far from an isolated incident as wages have risen by over 80% since 2005, while in the same period revenue only increased by 20%, contributing to a very high wages to turnover ratio of 86%. This is not only way above UEFA’s recommended maximum limit of 70%, but has been described by chief executive, Allan Duckworth, as “unlikely to prove sustainable in the long term.”

In fairness, it’s not as if Bolton’s wage bill is excessive in absolute terms, as they currently lie 12th in the wages ranking for clubs in the Premier League. As we speak, they could actually be even lower, as they could easily be overtaken by Blackburn, Fulham and Wigan when those clubs publish their 2010 accounts, while newly promoted Newcastle certainly pay more.

Moreover, the club is well aware that the wage bill is too high, as they have been adversely impacted by two important factors, one of which is specific to Bolton, while the other has affected all clubs. First, the consecutive changes in management have “led to the club carrying a larger than optimum playing squad and backroom team.” Second, the club wanted to shed players in the summer, but the transfer market has died with far fewer deals taking place.

This meant that no senior players left the club during the season, resulting in the senior squad increasing in size from 24 players to 30, while the full squad of players averaged 57 compared to 45 in the previous season. Gartside promised that the club’s wage position would recover next summer when nine players will be out of contract, “If you took four or five players out of the squad, you’ve probably got £8 million of salaries that you don’t need.” It’s an obvious area to target and one that should not be too difficult to improve.

You would have to believe that the board directors were capable of addressing the financial issue, given that they are very comfortably rewarded for their efforts. Last year, the highest paid director (most likely Gartside) trousered a hefty £584,000, including a £156,000 bonus, while the other director (presumably Duckworth) received £483,000, including a £178,000 bonus. If they make this much money, when the company reports a record loss of £35 million, heaven knows how much they would be paid if the club actually made a profit. Nice work if you can get it.

"The boy can play after all"

The logical result of the club’s recent transfer policy has been a significant increase in player amortisation from £2 million in 2006 to £16 million in 2010 with this expense rising 33% last year alone. The concept of amortisation confuses many people, but it is simply how accountants handle player transfers. Instead of booking 100% of the player’s transfer price as a cost in the year of purchase, accountants treat players as assets, so the cost is capitalised and written-down (amortised) over the length of his contract. At the end of the contract, he is considered to have no value, because he can then leave the club on a free transfer.

It’s probably easier to understand with an example. Bolton bought Fabrice Muamba for around £6 million on a four-year contract, so the annual amortisation is £1.5 million. After two years his net book value in the accounts would be £3 million (the original cost of £6 million less two years amortisation at £1.5 million per annum).

Whatever the accounting treatment, what is indisputable is that Bolton have somehow transformed themselves into a buying club in recent times. Whether this cavalier approach makes sense, only time will tell. Gartside told supporters, “We have spent more money on players than we have in the past in the last three or four years” and the figures endorse this view. Up until 2003, Bolton made good money from their activities in the transfer market, generating a net surplus of £25 million in the preceding five years, but in the subsequent eight years they have incurred a net spend of £37 million. Apart from 2007/08 when the club’s purchases were funded by the sale of Nicolas Anelka to Chelsea for a club record fee, every year in that period has seen outgoings.

Of course, none of this would have been possible without their benefactor providing the cash, which was explicitly acknowledged in the 2007 annual report, “Once again the ongoing support of Edwin Davies and parties connected to him has enabled this investment in the playing squad.”

As the club understands that future “investment levels must be managed within the overall capacity of the business”, they have committed themselves to a new philosophy whereby “young, promising players will be acquired as rough diamonds to be polished and cut. Some will be kept to secure the backbone of the team, but others will be sold to finance further investments.” This youth strategy will benefit from the “Bolton Wanderers Eddie Davies Football Academy” in Lostock, which became operational at the start of the 2008/09 season and features a number of high quality grass pitches and an all weather training facility.

Whether this bold new vision is pursued is a matter of conjecture, because the very same report also states, “ongoing investment in the playing squad will remain a priority.” In a way, this is perfectly understandable, as this is their best chance of fulfilling their primary objective, which is “simply to retain the club’s Premier League status” – pretty much at all costs. Gartside has talked of a “fear factor beginning to emerge amongst top clubs outside the top few” surrounding relegation, due to the financial gap between the Premier League and the Championship, which tempts clubs to over-spend in order to keep their seat at the top table.

"Keep your eye on the ball, Kev"

Granted, the parachute payments paid to clubs dropping out of the Premier League have been increased to £48 million (£16 million in each of the first two years, £8 million in each of years three and four), but this would still represent a drastic reduction for Bolton. They can expect around £45 million revenue from the Premier League next season, so they would have to somehow cope with a £29 million reduction in their total revenue. Unless Davies provided even more funding, the club would be unable to meet their payroll, so would have to offload players in a fire sale, making it more difficult to be promoted back into the top division – a vicious circle.

This has lead to Gartside, also a Football Association board member, making a series of proposals for a two-tier Premier League with 18 teams in each. Although this theoretically might have some merit (winter break, fewer matches), you don’t have to be the world’s biggest cynic to detect a healthy degree of self-interest in the plan, as one of the primary objectives is clearly to give clubs relegated from the Premier League a softer financial landing.

His initial plan included the awful idea of doing away with promotion and relegation, though this has since been watered down to allow limited scope for teams moving up and down via some sort of “size and finance threshold”. In other words, replacing a meritocracy with a franchise system. Maybe he’s forgotten that this would have prevented his own beloved Bolton from climbing from the old Fourth Division in 1988 to the Premier League in 1995. Fortunately, these proposals have so far been rejected, but you get the feeling that won’t stop Gartside from knocking at the door again.

The extent of the chairman’s nervousness is all too easy to appreciate when you read the going concern warning in the latest accounts, where the club advises that it has a shortfall in its cash flow projections and is “in discussion with lenders regarding potential further borrowings in order to provide the company with adequate working capital facilities.” There was a similar warning in last year’s accounts, the only difference being that it spoke of “the potential securitisation of future guaranteed broadcast revenues”, i.e. borrowing against the Sky TV money. It is evident from the cash flow statement that the business has only been maintained through financing, either with bank borrowing or loans from the owner, which has amounted to £64 million in the last four years.

This benefactor model works fine while Davies is there to provide support, even though some might accuse the club of benefiting from a form of financial doping, but it does beg the question of how strong his commitment is. Although he was born in Bolton and grew up in the town, Davies, who made his fortune from the manufacture of thermostatic controls for kettles, moved away in his early twenties. When he bought the club in 2004, a former director, Brian Scowcroft, expressed the fans’ concerns, “Now we’re owned by an Isle of Man tax exile via his Bermudan trust. It leaves us feeling very vulnerable and with many unanswered questions.”

"Tonight, Matthew, I'm going to be..."

That said, nearly seven years later Davies is still at the club and has continually made funds available. Gartside, for one, has no doubts over the owner’s dedication to the cause, “We have no indications from Eddie whatsoever that he wants to exit the club. He still enjoys the games and is a massive supporter of the club.” However, there must always be some misgivings when a club is so reliant on one individual. He might get bored, suffer ill health or run into financial difficulties. Such a scenario may be unlikely, but it has afflicted a number of clubs, e.g. Portsmouth, Rangers. Even if the spirit is willing, the bank account might be weak. According to the 2009 Sunday Times Rich List, Davies’ net worth is £65 million, which might be more than enough for you and me, but does not leave him much more to invest in the football club.

Although the club claims that it is trying to wean itself away from relying on financing from Davies, we have seen that this is easier said than done. Nor would it be a straightforward task to find a new investor. Indeed, Gartside admitted, “I’ve been chairman for 12 years and on the board for 21. We’ve never had an approach to buy it in all that time.”

The club might own its ground and other assets (including the hotel), but it still has net liabilities of £56 million, though much of this shortfall would be made up by putting a real world value on the players (intangible assets). These are reported in the books at £24 million, but the directors estimate the market value to be approximately £64 million. This provides some under-pinning of the debt, but does not help to release cash to make loan repayments - unless players are sold. This is the state of affairs facing the club (and Owen Coyle) right now.

"Owen Coyle - plenty to think about"

So Bolton may not be the most compelling investment, either from a yield or growth perspective, but there could be some light at the end of the financial tunnel via a couple of developments in football governance. Firstly, the introduction of Premier League squad limits should reduce the numbers required for the playing squad. Then, the advent of the UEFA Financial Fair Play Regulations should theoretically reduce the inflationary wage pressure from the top clubs. Of course, the latter is a double-edged sword for Bolton, as they are a long way from break-even and have less revenue potential than the larger clubs. It would be a horrible irony if Bolton did manage to qualify for Europe again, but found themselves excluded for financial reasons.

Maybe we should just enjoy the moment. Bolton have made enormous progress on the pitch since they were voted the seventh most hated club in English football in 2008. They are now playing some delightful football, eradicating the memory of the dismal fare served up by the teams sent out by Megson and Allardyce, and few neutrals would begrudge them their lofty position in the Premier League. If they maintain this level in spite of their financial constraints, it will be a simply stunning achievement. The odds are against it, but stranger things have happened.